Vergleichende Analyse der Infrastrukturkosten für Batterie- und Brennstoffzellenfahrzeuge

Transcription

1 Vergleichende Analyse der Infrastrukturkosten für Batterie- und Brennstoffzellenfahrzeuge NOVEMBER 08, 2018 THOMAS GRUBE, JOCHEN LINSSEN, MARTIN ROBINIUS, MARKUS REUSS, PETER STENZEL, KONSTANTINOS SYRANIDIS, DETLEF STOLTEN 7. WIRTSCHAFTSGESPRÄCH IM CLUSTER UMWELT 5. HYPOS-DIALOG Leipzig Institute for Electrochemical Process Engineering (IEK-3) Who we are Process and Systems Analysis (VSA) Head of Department: Dr.-Ing. Martin Robinius Renewable energies & storage Areas of VSA s Expertise: Infrastructures Transport Residential sector Industry 20 Scientists Energy System Analysis CCS/CCU 1

2 Highlights Motivation Transport sector essential for reaching the ambitious climate protection goals Electric drivetrains key elements of renewably-based, clean and energy-efficient transport Research question and approach What are costs, efficiencies and emissions of an infrastructure capable of supplying hundred thousand or several million vehicles with hydrogen or electricity? In depth scenario analysis of infrastructure designs, case study for Germany Spatio-temporally resolved models for generation, conversion, transport and distribution Conclusion Hydrogen and controlled charging key to integration of renewable electricity in transportation Complementary development of both infrastructures maximize energy efficiency, optimize the use of renewable energy and minimize CO 2 emissions Hydrogen infrastructure roll-out for transportation sector enables further large-scale applications in other sectors 2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Germany Since 1990 GHG emission compared to 1990 [%] Total emissions [1] Sector specific emissions [1] Today Today Mitigation targets of the Federal Government 2010 [2] Mitigation targets according to Climate Action Plan 2016 [3] Transportation Industry Energy Buildings No GHG reductions in the transportation sector since 1990 Achieving mitigation targets requires contributions from all sectors [1] BMWi, Zahlen und Fakten Energiedaten - Nationale und Internationale Entwicklung. 2018: Berlin. [2] BRD, Energiekonzept für eine umweltschonende, zuverlässige und bezahlbare Energieversorgung. 2010: Berlin. [3] BMU, Klimaschutzplan Klimaschutzpolitische Grundsätze und Ziele der Bundesregierung. 2016: Berlin. 3

3 Battery Cars (BEV) & Fuel Cell Cars (FCEV) are Key Elements of GHG mitigation in Transportation BEV charging infrastructure Renewable power generation H 2 fueling infrastructure BEV Introduction Mass market FCEV What are investments, cost, efficiencies and emissions of infrastructures? 4 Status Quo of BEV & FCEVs and Infrastructures in Germany Battery Cars (BEV) 44,419 Plug-in hybrids and 53,861 BEVs (Jan 1, 2018) [1] Fuel Cell Cars (FCEV) 325 cars, 15 buses, 2 trucks, 2 semi trucks (Jan 1, 2018) [1] Public cahrge points [3] 70,000 77,100 in 2020 [2] in 2023 [4] 13,500 in July 2018 [3] H 2 Fueling Stations [5] 52 in Oct [4] Planned (2018) Supply infrastructures are market ready required technologies are available. [1] KBA. Bestand am 1. Januar 2018 nach Motorisierung (FCEV Auf Anfrage) [2] Nationale Plattform Elektromobilität: Wegweiser Elektromobilität [3] BDEW, Erhebung Ladeinfrastruktur. 2017: Berlin. [4] H2 MOBILITY: H2-Stations [5] HyARC, International Hydrogen Fueling Stations

4 Approach Meta-analysis of existing infrastructure scenario studies Hydrogen production Electric vehicle penetration In depth scenario analysis of infrastructure designs, case study for Germany Consistent scenario framework with different vehicle penetrations Number of in million Market penetration scenario Ramp-up Mass market Spatio-temporally resolved models for generation, conversion, transport and distribution Analysis of investments, costs, efficiencies and emissions Renewable electricity & demand Electricity generation & grid 6 Meta Analysis Selection criteria of scenario studies Focus on Germany (broader context studies for EU, worldwide) and quantitative results; parameters: number of H 2 fueling stations and charging points, cumulative investment for infrastructure set-up Number of scanned literature sources: 79 Studies selected for meta analysis: 25 (12 on H 2 fueling and 13 on BEV charging) Lessons learned of the meta analysis Mostly aggregated results; in many cases without provision of techno-economic assumptions Regarding H 2 fueling infrastructures: Lack of information on parameters that are important infrastructure parameters, e.g., H 2 pipeline length, number of trucks for H 2 transport no meta-analysis possible Regarding BEV charging studies: lack of studies concerning high xev penetration scenarios, investment for infrastructure build-up, demand for fast-charging and impacts on the distribution grid 7

5 Assumed Electricity Scenario Assessment based on municipal level and hourly resolution of grid load/ RES feed-in Power- Sector RES power [GW TWh]: onshore: ; offshore: ; PV: 55 47; hydro: 6 21; bio: 7 44; fossil: Further assumptions: grid electricity: 528 TWh; imports: 28 TWh; exports: 45 TWh; pos. residual: natural gas Negative residual energy (Surplus) Share of RES electricity generation: 78 % Total curtailment (including future grid): 266 TWh Residual energy [MWh/km²] Positive residual energy Power flow analysis based on 523 nodes and 802 edges Components of Electrical Charging Infrastructure Power generation Electricity transport Electricity distribution Charging Renewable power At home 2 10 kw Public 4 22 kw Controllable power City, up to 350 kw Power plants & grids Autobahn up to 350 kw Spatially and temporally highly resolved models required. 9

6 Components of Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure H 2 production Storage Transport Fueling Spatially and temporally highly resolved models required. 10 Hydrogen Infrastructure Model Number of FCEV Number of fueling stations Investigated pathways Scenario selection Preprocessing geospatial data Selection of fueling stations Hydrogen production Hydrogen demand Candidate grid (Highway grid) Fueling station locations Geospatial database Optimize grid/route network Technology database Hydrogen supply chain model Hydrogen costs Energy demand GHG emissions Derive results 11

7 Selected Results and Infrastructure Parameters Introduction Mass market Cable length Transformers Normal charging Quick chargers 0.1 million 3 million 10 million 20 million 1,800 km 28,000 km 183,000 km 6,100 55, , kw 150 kw 2.8 Million 81, Million 175, kw 350 kw Storage Electrolysis Trucks Pipeline H TWh 3 GW ,000 km 5 TWh 10 TWh 10 GW 19 GW 1,500 3,000 12,000 km 12,000 km Fueling stations 400 1,500 3,800 7,000 During introductory phase BEV benefit from available infrastructure From 3 million FCEV onwards a hydrogen transmission pipeline will be beneficial Hydrogen infrastructure includes storage of renewable energies 12 Total Cumulative Investment Hydrogen Infrastructure 13

8 Total and Specific Investment Charging Infrastructure 1,000,000 Total invest, [million ] 100,000 10,000 1, ,834 50,538 Invest per BEV [ ] 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 3,112 2,834 2, million BEV 1 million BEV 20 million BEV 14 Comparison of Infrastructure Investments Cumulative investments are comparable during introductory and mass markets Future charge patterns unclear greater uncertainty for charging infrastructure Hydrogen infrastructure with significant scaling effects 15

9 Comparison of Mobility Costs vehicle purchase and operation costs excluded For very small vehicle fleets, BEV fuel costs significantly lower H 2 cost increase between 1 and 3 million cars caused by switch to renewable energy For high market penetration scenario fuel cost are roughly the same 16 CO 2 Emissions & Electricity Demand Efficiency of charging infrastructure is higher, but limited in flexibility and use of surplus electricity Fueling infrastructure for hydrogen with inherent seasonal storage option Low specific CO 2 emissions for both options in high penetration scenarios with advantage for hydrogen, well below the EU emission target after 2020: 95 g CO2 /km 17

10 Comparison with Annual Investments in Energy Infrastructures Annual jährliche investments Investitionen [billion [Mrd /a] New Scenario Distribution Transm. *Average annual invest over 30 years H 2 infrastructure* 20 Mio. FCEV [1] Charging infrastr.* 20 Mio. BEV [1] H 2 fueling and charging infrastructures: Annual investment low compared to maintenance und extension investments of existing energy infrastructures [1] Robinius, M. et al.: Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles [2] BNetzA: Monitoringbericht [3] BDEW: Investitionen der deutschen Stromwirtschaft [4] BMWi: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen Comparison with Annual Investments in Energy Infrastructures Annual jährliche investments Investitionen [billion [Mrd /a] New Grid maintenance and extension Scenario Distribution Transm. *Average annual invest over 30 years H 2 infrastructure* 20 Mio. FCEV [1] Charging infrastr.* 20 Mio. BEV [1] Gas grid [2] Electric grid [2] H 2 fueling and charging infrastructures: Annual investment low compared to maintenance und extension investments of existing energy infrastructures [1] Robinius, M. et al.: Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles [2] BNetzA: Monitoringbericht [3] BDEW: Investitionen der deutschen Stromwirtschaft [4] BMWi: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen

11 Comparison with Annual Investments in Energy Infrastructures Annual jährliche investments Investitionen [billion [Mrd /a] New Grid maintenance and extension Power Generation maintenance and extension Scenario Distribution Transm. *Average annual invest over 30 years H 2 infrastructure* 20 Mio. FCEV [1] Charging infrastr.* 20 Mio. BEV [1] Gas grid [2] Electric grid [2] Power generation fossil [3] Power generation renewable [4] H 2 fueling and charging infrastructures: Annual investment low compared to maintenance und extension investments of existing energy infrastructures [1] Robinius, M. et al.: Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles [2] BNetzA: Monitoringbericht [3] BDEW: Investitionen der deutschen Stromwirtschaft [4] BMWi: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen Conclusions Hydrogen and controlled charging are key to integration of renewable electricity in transportation Complementary development of both infrastructures improves energy efficiency and renewable energy utilization and reduces CO 2 emissions Hydrogen infrastructure roll-out for transportation sector enables further large-scale applications in other sectors Need for further research Integrated infrastructures analysis and energy systems to identify win-win situations Modeling of BEV charging requires in depth analysis: high uncertainties regarding number of chargers, siting and impact of fast charging on electric distribution grid Impact analysis of new mobility and vehicle ownership concepts as well as autonomous driving on future transport supply concepts 21

12 Thank you for your attention! Full report available: Project team: Martin Robinius, Jochen Linßen, Thomas Grube, Markus Reuß, Peter Stenzel, Konstantinos Syranidis, Patrick Kuckertz, Detlef Stolten Battery and Fuel Cell 22