NOB HILL IMPROVEMENTS PROJECT

Transcription

1 CONSTRUCTION TRAFFIC ANALYSIS NOB HILL IMPROVEMENTS PROJECT San Diego, California February 18, 2014 LLG Ref

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE 1.0 Introduction Project Description Project Location Project Description Pipeline Improvements Project Alternative 1: Tunneling Project Alternative 2: Open Trench Access Construction Staging Analysis Approach and Methodology Analysis Approach Methodology Intersections Street Segments Significance Criteria Existing Conditions Existing Street Network Existing Transit Conditions Existing Traffic Volumes Analysis of Existing Conditions Peak Hour Intersection Levels of Service Daily Street Segment Levels of Service Trip Generation/Distribution/Assignment Project Phasing Trip Generation Trip Distribution/Assignment Near-Term Baseline Conditions Cumulative Projects Near-Term Baseline Traffic Volumes i

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) SECTION PAGE 9.0 Analysis of Near-Term Scenarios & Reserve Capacity Near-Term Baseline Intersection Analysis Segment Operations Near-Term Baseline + Maximum Project Intersection Analysis Segment Operations Reserve Capacity Analysis Conclusions & Recommendations APPENDIX APPENDICES A. City of San Diego Roadway Classification Table B. Intersection and Segment Manual Count Sheets C. Intersection Analysis Worksheets Existing D. Hatch Mott McDonald Phased Trip Generation E. Passenger Car-Equivalent excerpt from 2010 Highway Capacity Manual F. Intersection Analysis Worksheets Near-Term Baseline G. Intersection Analysis Worksheets Near-Term Baseline + Maximum Project ii

4 LIST OF FIGURES SECTION FIGURE # PAGE Figure 2 1 Vicinity Map... 5 Figure 2 2 Project Area Map... 6 Figure 5 1 Existing Conditions Diagram Figure 5 2 Existing Traffic Volumes Figure 7 1 Project Traffic Distribution Figure 7 2 Maximum Project Traffic Volumes Figure 8 1 Cumulative Projects Locations Map Figure 8 2 Cumulative Projects Traffic Volumes Figure 8 3 Near-Term Baseline Traffic Volumes Figure 8 4 Near-Term Baseline + Maximum Project Traffic Volumes LIST OF TABLES SECTION TABLE # PAGE Table 4 1 City Of San Diego Traffic Impact Significant Thresholds Table 5 1 Existing Traffic Volumes Table 6 1 Existing Intersection Operations Table 6 2 Existing Street Segment Operations Table 7 1 Estimated Maximum Daily Construction Traffic Table 8 1 Cumulative Projects Summary Table 9 1 Near-Term Intersection Operations & Reserve Capacity Table 9 2 Near-Term Baseline Street Segment Operations & Reserve Capacity iii

5 CONSTRUCTION TRAFFIC ANALYSIS NOB HILL IMPROVEMENTS PROJECT San Diego, California February 18, INTRODUCTION Linscott, Law & Greenspan Engineers (LLG) has been retained to determine and evaluate the potential traffic impacts to the street system within the Scripps Miramar Ranch community due to the. The traffic analysis presented in this report includes the following: Project Description Analysis Approach and Methodology Significance Criteria Existing Conditions Discussion Analysis of Existing Conditions Trip Generation/Distribution/Assignment Near-Term Baseline Conditions Discussion Analysis of Near-Term Conditions & Reserve Capacity Analysis Conclusions & Recommendations 1

6 2.0 PROJECT DESCRIPTION The construction traffic analysis for this Project focuses on the temporary construction impacts that would occur over approximately 18-months due to the construction of the proposed Nob Hill Pipeline. Construction is expected to begin in August 2015 and end no later than April Typical operational days/hours are proposed between Monday-Friday between 7:00AM and 5:00PM. 2.1 Project Location The Nob Hill Pipeline Improvements Project (Project) is located within a segment of the Second Aqueduct that traverses the Scripps Miramar Ranch community. After crossing under Interstate 15, the Second Aqueduct is located within a residential area, then crosses Scripps Ranch Boulevard, and ascends a hill known as Nob Hill. As the Second Aqueduct crosses Nob Hill, the right-of-way divides two residential areas along the hill known as the Miro/Ravel community to the east (uphill) and Scripps Nob Hill Condominiums to the west (downhill). This location is just east of the Mira Mesa Boulevard/Scripps Ranch Boulevard intersection. 2.2 Project Description The Project consists of the replacement and realignment of approximately 800 feet of the Water Authority Second Aqueduct Pipelines 3 and 4, and the construction of a permanent access road. The permanent access road, which would also be used for construction access, would be located within the Water Authority right-of-way, west of the Miramar Reservoir dam. Some additional right-of-way would likely be needed at the access driveway on Scripps Lake Drive. The Project vicinity and approximate area for the work proposed is depicted on Figure 2 1 and Figure 2 2, respectively. The following provides a brief summary of each component of the Project Pipeline Improvements The segment of the Second Aqueduct in the project area contains three pipelines: Pipelines 3, 4 and 4A. Segments of Pipelines 3 and 4 would be replaced with a single pipeline at a lower elevation. The replacement pipeline, which is 96-inch interior diameter, would be connected at the north end using a Y structure to the existing two pipelines, and then split back into the two pipelines at the south end, into the existing Pipelines 3 and 4. Two construction techniques are being examined for construction of the replacement pipeline and are analyzed at the same level of detail within the Project s EIR to provide a complete disclosure of the potential impacts on the public and the environment to the Water Authority Board of Directors and the public. The two construction methods are Tunneling, referred to herein as Project Alternative 1, and Open Trench, Project Alternative 2. While the two construction techniques would require approximately the same amount of time to construct and would have the same end result, the equipment required, ground disturbance, and quantity of excavated materials would differ. Therefore, detailed descriptions are provided for further understanding of both Project Alternatives. 2

7 2.2.2 Project Alternative 1: Tunneling Project Alternative 1, the tunneling technique, would involve the installation of a replacement pipe in a tunnel beneath the existing Pipeline 3. A portal will be excavated at both the north and south end of the segment for access to the tunnel. Pipeline 3 will be connected using the Y structure at both the north and south ends of the new pipe. Water deliveries will be made in Pipeline 4 and 4A during construction. At the time that Pipeline 4 is ready to be connected to the Y structure on the new (lowered) pipeline segment, the water will be redirected into Pipeline 3 and through the Y structure, into the new segment, continuing south back into the existing Pipeline 3. Pipeline 4 will be shutdown, capped for abandonment, and connected to the Y structure, merging Pipeline 3 and 4 into the new lowered segment. At the south end, water delivery will then be split back into the two existing pipelines (3 and 4) through a second Y structure for continued distribution. A new air release valve will be constructed within the merged segment of pipeline. Duration of construction for this option is estimated for 73 weeks (approximately 18 months) Project Alternative 2: Open Trench Project Alternative 2, the open trench technique, would involve the removal of Pipeline 4 and the installation of a new 96-inch diameter replacement pipeline placed in a deeper and wider trench along the same alignment. Pipelines 3 and 4 will be connected to the replacement pipeline with a Y structure. An aqueduct shutdown will be required at the start of construction to isolate Pipeline 4 and transfer flow to Pipeline 3. Water deliveries will be made using Pipeline 3 and Pipeline 4A during this construction. Once the new (lowered) segment is connected, water flow will be diverted to the new 96-inch pipeline segment at the north end and the water flow restored to Pipelines 3 and 4 at the south end. The unused portions of Pipelines 3 and 4 will be abandoned in-place or removed between Stations and approximately. Duration of construction for this option is estimated for 73 weeks (approximately 18 months). Controlled detonation (e.g., controlled blasting) will be necessary for either of the construction techniques due to existing geologic formations within the Project area Access Primary construction access will be from Interstate 15 to Mira Mesa Boulevard or Carroll Canyon Road, then to Scripps Ranch Boulevard, and on to Scripps Lake Drive. A new driveway and access road would be graded along the Water Authority Aqueduct right-of-way to provide construction access from Scripps Lake Drive, east of the proposed City of San Diego Scripps Ranch Pump Station, to the Scripps Nob Hill Home Owners Association (HOA) private road (See Figure 2 2). The access road would be paved and gated to limit vehicular use of the roadway to Water Authority personnel and contractors. This road is intended to provide ongoing access following the completion of the Project for operation and maintenance of the existing aqueduct pipelines and associated appurtenances. An additional road spur (highlighted in green on Figure 2 2) is part of the proposed 3

8 Project and would be constructed concurrently to provide paved access to the existing pipeline structures to the southeast of the Project site, across from the Scripps Ranch Library. Access on Scripps Nob Hill HOA private road to Scripps Ranch Boulevard during construction would be limited to emergency access only Construction Staging Construction staging for this Project may occur on a previously graded parcel (Assessor s Parcel Number ) located in the southeast corner at the Scripps Ranch Boulevard and Scripps Lake Drive intersection (See Figure 2 2). The Project site office, off-site equipment staging, and storage would take place on this site. Both the tunneling and open trench construction methods would result in the excavation of materials. Processing of these has been analyzed should the Project contractor choose to do so to reduce hauling distance and disposal fees. The tunnel option would generate less excavated material, but would also require less material for backfill, thus resulting in more off-site disposal. The open trench option is more likely to be backfilled with graded materials that have been processed, which would make the open trench option more likely to process material on the staging site. 4

9 5 SOLANA BEACH CARLSBAD DEL MAR ENCINITAS }56 ESCONDIDO 15 POWAY P A C I F I C O C E A N 805 SAN DIEGO CORONADO }163 }52 }75 [_PROJECT AREA }15 NATIONAL CITY }94 LA MESA LEMON GROVE }54 }125 }125 CHULA VISTA SANTEE }94 }125 }67 EL CAJON 8 Legend City Boundary Incorporated Unincorporated IMPERIAL BEACH }905 SAN DIEGO [ Miles N:\2204\Figures Date: 8/19/13 1 Figure 2-1 Vicinity Map Nob Hill Improvement Project

10 N:\2204\Figures Date: 8/19/13 Figure 2-2 Project Area Map Nob Hill Improvement Project

11 3.0 ANALYSIS APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 3.1 Analysis Approach This construction traffic analysis assesses the effects on the local circulation system due to the construction of the proposed. The improvements, discussed in Section 2.1, have been further described by Project phase in Section 7.1 for the purposes of determining which phase has the highest overall traffic (both passenger vehicles and heavy vehicles). The traffic related to this worst-case phase is utilized in the capacity analysis. Thus, traffic impacts related to any other phases are equal to or less than those presented in this report. The Project is anticipated to be underway within two years (approximately August 2015). LLG reviewed cumulative project traffic volumes from nearby development projects to add to existing volumes to establish baseline traffic volumes. Peak hour intersection and daily street segment operations were analyzed under the following scenarios: Existing Near-Term Baseline (existing + cumulative projects traffic) Near-Term Baseline + Maximum Project Existing conditions represents the existing on-the-ground conditions. The Nob Hill Project area lies within the greater Stone Creek mixed-use development project study area currently in the permit review process with the City of San Diego. The 7 th Submittal of the Stone Creek Traffic Impact Analysis prepared by LLG was submitted to City staff on May 14, As such, the Stone Creek study includes the same intersections which are analyzed in this report. The traffic data collected for Stone Creek dates to pre-recession years, which are higher volumes than current volumes, as validated by the Stone Creek project team and approved by the City of San Diego. Therefore, the Stone Creek intersection volumes are considered valid and accurate for use in the existing analysis of study area intersections for this construction analysis. The Stone Creek study area did not include street segments in the Nob Hill study area, so LLG collected average daily traffic data on Scripps Ranch Boulevard and Scripps Lake Drive in April Near-Term Baseline conditions represent the time period in which pipeline activities are anticipated to start (approximately August 2015). Under such conditions, it would be expected that other nearby development or infrastructure projects would contribute to growth in the area which would increase the overall traffic volumes in the area. Section 8.0 discusses near-term conditions in greater detail. Near-Term Baseline + Maximum Project conditions represent baseline time frame for pipeline construction activities with the addition of the highest intensity traffic-generating phase during the 18 month construction period. As identified in Section 7.0, the Phase 3 Pipe Connections activity generates the highest amount of Project trips on any given work day. The traffic study provides a capacity analysis utilizing the standard additive approach, where cumulative and Project traffic volumes are added to existing volumes, and changes in capacity (LOS, 7

12 delay, V/C) are measured and assessed. However, it is acknowledged that the traffic and trip distribution associated with the Project s various phasing and activities are estimates and could change, based on the natural variability of construction projects as compared to more typical development projects. To provide additional analytical security against this variability, LLG also conducted a reserve capacity analysis, which determines the amount of Project traffic that could be added to the various elements of the street system prior to triggering a significant traffic-related impact. A more detailed discussion on the reserve capacity assessment is provided in Section of this report. 3.2 Methodology Level of Service (LOS) is the term used to denote the different operating conditions which occur on a given roadway segment under various traffic volume loads. It is a qualitative measure used to describe a quantitative analysis taking into account factors such as roadway geometries, signal phasing, speed, travel delay, freedom to maneuver, and safety. Level of Service provides an index to the operational qualities of a roadway segment or an intersection. Level of Service designations range from A to F, with LOS A representing the best operating conditions and LOS F representing the worst operating conditions. Level of Service designation is reported differently for signalized and unsignalized intersections, as well as for roadway segments Intersections Signalized intersections were analyzed under AM and PM peak hour conditions. Average vehicle delay was determined utilizing the methodology found in Chapter 16 of the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), with the assistance of the Synchro (version 7) computer software. The delay values (represented in seconds) were qualified with a corresponding intersection Level of Service (LOS) Street Segments Street segment analysis is based upon the comparison of daily traffic volumes (ADTs) to the City of San Diego s Roadway Classification, Level of Service, and ADT Table. This table provides segment capacities for different street classifications, based on traffic volumes and roadway characteristics. The City of San Diego s Roadway Classification, Level of Service, and ADT Table is attached in Appendix A. It should be noted that acceptable Levels of Service at adjacent intersections during peak hours along a segment are a valid indicator of adequate segment operations. If the intersections along a LOS E or LOS F operating segment all operate at LOS D or better during peak periods, the actual operations of the segment may not be failing since intersection analysis is more indicative of actual roadway system operations than street segment analysis. 8

13 4.0 SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA The Project falls under the jurisdiction of the San Diego County Water Authority. The Water Authority does not have published criteria for assessing traffic-related impacts for CEQA-related documents. The majority of the study area is located in the City of San Diego, therefore, for significance determination for the proposed Project, the criteria from the City of San Diego was deemed appropriate for assessing the Project s environmental impacts. According to the City of San Diego s Significance Determination Thresholds dated January 2007, a project is considered to have a significant impact if project traffic would decrease the operations of surrounding roadways by a defined threshold. For projects deemed complete on or after January 1, 2007, the City defined thresholds are shown in Table 4 1. The impact is designated either a direct or cumulative impact. According to the City s Significance Determination Thresholds, Direct traffic impacts are those projected to occur at the time a proposed development becomes operational, including other developments not presently operational but which are anticipated to be operational at that time (near term). Cumulative traffic impacts are those projected to occur at some point after a proposed development becomes operational, such as during subsequent phases of a project and when additional proposed developments in the area become operational (short-term cumulative) or when affected community plan area reaches full planned buildout (long-term cumulative). It is possible that a project s near term (direct) impacts may be reduced in the long term, as future projects develop and provide additional roadway improvements (for instance, through implementation of traffic phasing plans). In such a case, the project may have direct impacts but not contribute considerably to a cumulative impact. For intersections and roadway segments affected by a project, level of service (LOS) D or better is considered acceptable under both direct and cumulative conditions. If the project exceeds the thresholds in Table 4 1, then the project may be considered to have a significant direct or cumulative project impact. A significant impact may also occur if a project causes the Level of Service to degrade from D to E, even if the allowable increases in Table 4 1 are not exceeded. A feasible mitigation measure will need to be identified to return the impact within the City thresholds, or the impact may be considered significant and unmitigated. It should be noted that if the intersections along an LOS E or F segment all operate at LOS D or better, the segment impact may be considered not significant since intersection analysis is more indicative of actual roadway system operations than street segment analysis. 9

14 Level of Service with Project b Footnotes: TABLE 4 1 CITY OF SAN DIEGO TRAFFIC IMPACT SIGNIFICANT THRESHOLDS Allowable Increase Due to Project Impacts a Freeways Roadway Segments Intersections Ramp Metering c V/C Speed (mph) V/C Speed (mph) Delay (sec.) Delay (min.) E F a. If a proposed project s traffic causes the values shown in the table to be exceeded, the impacts may be determined to be significant. The project applicant shall then identify feasible improvements (within the Traffic Impact Study) that will restore/and maintain the traffic facility at an acceptable LOS. If the LOS with the proposed project becomes unacceptable (see note b), or if the project adds a significant amount of peak-hour trips to cause any traffic queues to exceed on- or off-ramp storage capacities, the project applicant may be responsible for mitigating the project s direct significant and/or cumulatively considerable traffic impacts. b. All LOS measurements are based upon Highway Capacity Manual procedures for peak-hour conditions. However, V/C ratios for roadway segments are estimated on an ADT/24-hour traffic volume basis (using Table 2 of the City s Traffic Impact Study Manual). The acceptable LOS for freeways, roadways, and intersections is generally D ( C for undeveloped locations). For metered freeway ramps, LOS does not apply. However, ramp meter delays above 15 minutes are considered excessive. c. The allowable increase in delay at a ramp meter with more than 15 minutes delay and freeway LOS E is 2 minutes. The allowable increase in delay at a ramp meter with more than 15 minutes delay and freeway LOS F is 1 minute. General Notes: 1. Delay = Average control delay per vehicle measured in seconds for intersections or minutes for ramp meters 2. LOS = Level of Service 3. V/C = Volume to Capacity ratio 4. Speed = Arterial speed measured in miles per hour Also, according to the City of San Diego s Significance Determination Thresholds, other possible significant impacts that are not accounted for in Table 4 1 include the following: If a project would increase traffic hazards to motor vehicles, bicyclists or pedestrians due to proposed non-standard design features (e.g., poor sight distance, proposed driveway onto an access-restricted roadway), the impact would be significant. If a project would result in the construction of a roadway which is inconsistent with the General Plan and/or a community plan, the impact would be significant if the proposed roadway would not properly align with other existing or planned roadways. If a project would result in a substantial restriction in access to publicly or privately owned land, the impact would be significant. 10

15 5.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS Effective evaluation of the traffic impacts associated with the proposed Project requires an understanding of the existing transportation system within the Project area. Figure 5 1 shows an existing conditions diagram, including intersection and street segment lane configurations. 5.1 Existing Street Network The following is a description of the existing street network in the study area. Scripps Ranch Boulevard is classified as a 4-Lane Major Street on the Scripps Miramar Ranch Community Plan. It is currently built as a four-lane divided roadway with a raised median from Mira Mesa Boulevard to Hibert Street and as a four-lane divided roadway with a two-way left-turn lane (TWLTL) from Hibert Street to Scripps Lake Drive, within the study area. Curbside parking is not permitted and the posted speed limit is 40 miles per hour (mph). Class II bike lanes are provided on Scripps Ranch Boulevard and contiguous sidewalks with curb and gutter are constructed along both sides of the roadway, within the study area. Pedestrian crosswalks are provided at the intersections of Mira Mesa Boulevard and Scripps Lake Drive. Scripps Lake Drive is classified as a 2-Lane Residential Collector Street on the Scripps Miramar Ranch Community Plan. It is currently built as a two-lane undivided roadway with additional approach lanes provided at its intersection with Scripps Ranch Boulevard. Curbside parking is not permitted and the posted speed limit is 35 mph. No bike lanes are provided within the study area. East of Scripps Ranch Boulevard, sidewalks are provided on both sides of the roadway. Approximately 550 feet from the intersection, the curb and gutter on the south side of the roadway are eliminated and the sidewalk continues as a noncontiguous walkway separated from the roadway by a guard rail until reconnecting with a contiguous sidewalk (curb and gutter provided) adjacent to the Scripps Ranch Library. Pedestrian crosswalks are provided at the intersection of Scripps Ranch Boulevard. Mira Mesa Boulevard is classified as a 6-Lane Major Street on the Scripps Miramar Ranch Community Plan. It is currently built as a six-lane roadway divided by a raised median from the I-15 Northbound Ramps to the Scripps Mesa Shopping Center driveway. East of the driveway, it is constructed as a six-lane roadway divided by a striped median with glued-down delineators. Curbside parking is not permitted and the posted speed limit is 35 mph. No bike lanes are provided within the study area, however a Class III bike route is identified on the Community Plan. Contiguous sidewalks with curb and gutter are provided on both sides of the roadway. Pedestrian crosswalks are provided at the intersection of Scripps Ranch Boulevard. 11

16 5.2 Existing Transit Conditions The Metropolitan Transit Service (MTS) does not provide service to the Scripps Miramar Ranch Community within the study area. 5.3 Existing Traffic Volumes Table 5 1 is a summary of the most recent available average daily traffic volumes (ADTs) from LLG counts conducted by Accurate Video Counts in April As mentioned in Section 3.1, 7:00-9:00AM and 4:00-6:00PM peak hour intersection counts were taken from the Stone Creek traffic study prepared by LLG with a most recent City submittal date of May 4, Figure 5 2 shows the Existing Traffic Volumes. Appendix B contains the electronic count sheets. TABLE 5 1 EXISTING TRAFFIC VOLUMES Street Segment ADT a Date Source Scripps Ranch Boulevard Scripps Lake Drive to Mira Mesa Boulevard 16,046 April 2013 LLG Scripps Lake Drive Scripps Ranch Boulevard to the Existing Water Authority Driveway 9,233 April 2013 LLG Footnotes: a. Average Daily Traffic Volumes. 12

17 4U Scripps Ranch Bl Mira Mesa Bl FREE RTOL RTOL FREE 6D 35 4D 40 Lake M i rama r Turn Lane Configurations Traffic Signal # Number of Travel Lanes D / U Divided / Undivided Roadway Two-Way Left Turn Lane XX Posted Speed Limit RTOL Right Turn Overlap FREE Free Right Turn 15 Scripps Lake Dr 2U 35 [ N:\2204\Figures Date: 02/18/14 Figure 5-1 Existing Conditions Diagram Nob Hill Improvement Project

18 16,046 Scripps Ranch Bl Mira Mesa Bl 1,336 / 1,726 1,220 / 1, / 227 1,397 / / 363 1,455 / 1, / / 1, / 1, / / 342 1,558 / / 202 1,153 / / / / / 633 Lake M i rama r 314 / / / / / / 76 9,233 XX,XXX XXX / XXX Daily Traffic Volumes Peak Hour Traffic Volumes 15 Scripps Lake Dr 117 / / / / / / 78 [ N:\2204\Figures Date: 02/18/14 Figure 5-2 Existing Traffic Volumes Nob Hill Improvement Project

19 6.0 ANALYSIS OF EXISTING CONDITIONS The following section presents the analysis of existing study area locations. 6.1 Peak Hour Intersection Levels of Service Table 6 1 summarizes the existing intersections LOS. As seen in Table 6 1, all intersections are calculated to currently operate at LOS D or better conditions. Appendix C contains the existing intersection analysis worksheets. TABLE 6 1 EXISTING INTERSECTION OPERATIONS Intersection Control Type Peak Hour Delay a Existing LOS b 1. Mira Mesa Blvd/ I-15 SB Ramps Signal 2. Mira Mesa Blvd/ I-15 NB Ramps Signal 3. Mira Mesa Blvd/ Scripps Ranch Blvd Signal 4. Scripps Ranch Blvd/ Scripps Lake Dr Signal Footnotes: a. Average delay expressed in seconds per vehicle. b. Level of Service. AM 44.0 D PM 33.0 C AM 41.4 D PM 49.1 D AM 39.3 D PM 46.8 D AM 31.7 C PM 32.9 C SIGNALIZED DELAY/LOS THRESHOLDS Delay LOS A 10.1 to 20.0 B 20.1 to 35.0 C 35.1 to 55.0 D 55.1 to 80.0 E 80.1 F 15

20 6.2 Daily Street Segment Levels of Service Table 6 2 summarizes the existing roadway segment operations. As seen in Table 6 2, the study area segment of Scripps Ranch Boulevard between Scripps Lake Drive and Mira Mesa Boulevard is calculated to currently operate at LOS C and Scripps Lake Drive between Scripps Ranch Boulevard and the Existing Water Authority Driveway is calculated to currently operate at a poor LOS E. Scripps Ranch Boulevard Street Segment TABLE 6 2 EXISTING STREET SEGMENT OPERATIONS Existing Capacity (LOS E) a Existing ADT b LOS c V/C d Scripps Lake Drive to Mira Mesa Boulevard 30,000 16,046 C Scripps Lake Drive Scripps Ranch Blvd to the Existing Water Authority Driveway Footnotes: a. Capacities based on City of San Diego Roadway Classification & LOS table. b. Average Daily Traffic. c. Level of Service. d. Volume to Capacity ratio. 10,000 9,233 E

21 7.0 TRIP GENERATION/DISTRIBUTION/ASSIGNMENT Project trip generation was estimated using data provided by Hatch Mott McDonald (HMM), the Project engineer. The overall phasing of the Project and the sub-activities within each phase was evaluated, and the number and type of trips for Contractors, Haul Trucks, and Construction Management was estimated. Two (2) alternatives are proposed for installing the pipeline: Project Alternative 1: Tunnel Excavation; and Project Alternative 2: Open Trench Excavation. Phases 1, 3 and 4 are proposed to occur regardless of which alternative is selected. Below is a summary of each Project phase. 7.1 Project Phasing The Project has the following four general phases and activities: Phase 1 Access Road (Monday thru Friday, 7:00AM-5:00PM) Clearing and Grubbing Rough Grading Lay Surface Other activities Alternative 1: Optional Phase 2A Phase 2A.1 South Portal (Monday thru Friday, 7:00AM-5:00PM) o Clearing and Grubbing o Excavation Phase 2A.2 Tunnel Excavation (Monday thru Friday, 7:00AM-5:00PM) o Tunnel Excavation Phase 2A.3 North Portal (Monday thru Friday, 7:00AM-5:00PM) o Clearing and Grubbing o Excavation Phase 2A.4 Pipe Installation (Monday thru Friday, 7:00AM-5:00PM) o Pipe Installation Alternative 2: Optional Phase 2B Phase 2B Pipeline Clear & Grub, Excavation, Installation (Monday thru Friday, 7:00AM-5:00PM) o Pipeline Clear & Grub o Pipeline Excavation o Pipe Installation Phase 3 Pipe Connections (7 Days/Week for 24 Hours) Pipe Connections Phase 4 Site Restoration (Monday thru Friday, 7:00AM-5:00PM) Site Restoration 17

22 7.2 Trip Generation HMM provided estimates on the number of daily vehicles and the number of trip ends per vehicle that would occur for each phase/activity. LLG used this information to estimate the number of in:out trips during the commuter peak hours based on the Project s hours of operations for each phase. A copy of the estimates provided by HMM are provided in Appendix D. Haul Trucks The total Haul Truck trips were averaged over the course of the workday (typically 9 hours) to determine hourly trips. Also, a passenger car-equivalence (PCE) factor of 2.5 was applied to Haul Truck trips to reflect the additional effect of these heavy vehicles in traffic flow. Appendix E contains a description of PCE from the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual. The calculation to arrive at the hourly Haul Truck trips is shown below: Step 1: No. of Vehicles x Trips/ Vehicle = Net Daily Trips Step 2: Net Daily Trips x 2.5 PCE = Total PCE Daily Trips Step 3: Total PCE Daily Trips 9 Hrs/Day = Total PCE Hourly Trips Contractor/ Construction Management Vehicles As listed in Section 7.1, the general hours of operations for the Project site start at 7:00AM and end at 5:00PM. Since construction-related activities are expected to commence by 7:00AM, Contractor/ Construction Management (private vehicle) trips were assumed to arrive on-site prior to the 7:00-9:00AM peak period. Therefore, zero (0) Contractor/ Construction Management vehicle trips would be generated during the AM peak commuter hour analyzed in this report. Conversely, PM peak hour trips for Contractor/ Construction Management vehicles were assumed to be all outbound trips since typical hours of operation cease at 5:00 PM, which lies within the 4:00-6:00PM commuter peak hours. Maximum Project Traffic Based on the number and type of vehicles described above, this study determined that activities in Phase 3 Pipe Connections are the most traffic intensive both in ADT and peak hour trips. The traffic generated during this phase was used in the Near-Term + Maximum Project analysis. Table 7 1 presents the Project traffic generation by phase and activity. The Phase 3 Pipe Connections maximum Project traffic is calculated to generate approximately 350 ADT with 11 inbound/ 11 outbound trips during the AM peak hour and 11 inbound/ 61 outbound trips during the PM peak hour. 18

23 Activity Duration (work days) Vehicle Types TABLE 7 1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM DAILY CONSTRUCTION TRAFFIC # Vehicles Daily Trips Per Vehicle PHASE 1 ACCESS ROAD PCE Factor ADT 7-9 AM Peak Hour In/Out Trips 4-6 PM Peak Hour In/Out Trips Haul Trucks Clear & Grub 12 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Clear & Grub Haul Trucks Rough Grading 15 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Rough Grading Haul Trucks Lay Surface 6 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Lay Surface Haul Trucks Other Activities 23 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Other Activities ALTERNATIVE 1 PHASE 2A (TUNNEL EXCAVATION) PHASE 2A.1 SOUTH PORTAL Haul Trucks Clear & Grub 10 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Clear & Grub Haul Trucks Excavation 60 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Excavation (Continued on Next Page) 19

24 TABLE 7 1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM DAILY CONSTRUCTION TRAFFIC Activity Duration (work days) Vehicle Types # Vehicles Daily Trips Per Vehicle PCE Factor (Continued From Previous Page) ADT 7-9 AM Peak Hour In/Out Trips 4-6 PM Peak Hour In/Out Trips PHASE 2A.2 TUNNEL EXCAVATION Haul Trucks Tunnel 120 Contractor Vehicles Excavation CM Vehicles Total Tunnel Excavation PHASE 2A.3 NORTH PORTAL Haul Trucks Clear & Grub 10 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Clear & Grub Haul Trucks Excavation 30 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Excavation PHASE 2A.4 PIPE INSTALLATION Haul Trucks Pipe Installation 41 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Pipeline Installation Pipeline Clear & Grub, Excavation & Installation 220 ALTERNATIVE 2 PHASE 2B (OPEN TRENCH EXCAVATION) PHASE 2B PIPELINE CLEAR & GRUB, EXCAVATION, INSTALLATION Haul Trucks Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Pipeline Excavation & Installation (Continued on Next Page) 20

25 TABLE 7 1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM DAILY CONSTRUCTION TRAFFIC Activity Duration (work days) Vehicle Types # Vehicles Daily Trips Per Vehicle PCE Factor (Continued From Previous Page) ADT 7-9 AM Peak Hour In/Out Trips 4-6 PM Peak Hour In/Out Trips PHASE 3 PIPE CONNECTIONS Haul Trucks Pipe Connections 9 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Pipeline Connections PHASE 4 SITE RESTORATION Haul Trucks Site Restoration 35 Contractor Vehicles CM Vehicles Total Site Restoration Source: Hatch Mott McDonald, General Notes: 1. Work Days represent Monday-Friday, 7AM to 5PM. The exception to this is during Phase 3 Pipeline Connections where construction would occur consecutively for all 10 days (including weekends). 2. CM = Construction Management vehicles. 3. PCE = Passenger Car Equivalent. 4. ADT = Average Daily Traffic 5. Contractor and CM vehicles (passenger vehicles) arrive on-site prior to the 7AM peak hour, thus no passenger vehicles were assigned to the street system during the AM peak hour. All passenger vehicles were assumed to leave the site during the 4-6PM peak hour at 5PM. 6. Green highlighting represents the phases under the tunneling alternative; yellow highlighting represents the phase under the trenching alternative. Either of these phases would occur. Phases 1, 3, and 4, are common to both alternatives. 7. Bolded border line represents highest traffic-generating activity during the 18-month construction period: Phase 3 Pipeline Connections 21

26 7.3 Trip Distribution/Assignment The Project-generated traffic was distributed to the street system based on the assumed orientation of Haul Truck trips, Contractor trips, and Construction Management trips. Separate trip distributions were conducted as described below. Factors contributing to the distribution patterns took into account the origin and destination of Haul Trucks, the origin and destination of Contractors, and of Construction Management vehicles. Consideration was also given to the Project s proximity to the nearby Scripps Ranch High School located within the southwest quadrant of the Scripps Ranch Boulevard/ Scripps Lake Drive intersection. In order to avoid potential vehicular and/or pedestrian conflicts with the nearby high school, it is recommended (and assumed) that all Project trips utilize the Mira Mesa Boulevard/I-15 interchange to the north. There are other facts that support the assumption of this distribution. The interchange capacity of Mira Mesa Boulevard at I-15 is greater as compared to Carroll Canyon Road at I-15, due to additional lanes and the more efficient partial cloverleaf design of the former. In addition, Mira Mesa Boulevard is a six-lane roadway east of I-15 and provides a greater capacity than the four-lane Carroll Canyon Road. Haul Trucks For Haul Trucks, 100% of truck trips were distributed assuming two (2) conservative scenarios: 1) assuming all trucks were oriented to/from I-15 north of Mira Mesa Boulevard; and 2) assuming all trucks were oriented to/from I-15 south of Mira Mesa Boulevard. Haul Truck trips were assigned to the interchange under the two scenarios which resulted in no change in intersection delay over the near-term baseline condition (0.0 seconds). The results shown in the analysis table in the following section represent 100% of truck trips distributed on I-15 north of Mira Mesa Boulevard as this scenario assigned Project traffic completed through both the northbound and southbound ramps. Contractor Trips For Contractor vehicles, it was also assumed that 100% of these trips would use the Mira Mesa Boulevard/I-15 interchange. Since it is unknown at this time where Contractor vehicles would be oriented to/from, 50% of trips were distributed to I-15 south of Mira Mesa Boulevard and 50% to the north. Construction Management Trips Construction Management vehicles were also assigned 100% to the Mira Mesa Boulevard/I-15 interchange. Similar to the Contractor vehicles, their currently unknown orientation north/south on I-15 was split 50:50. Figure 7 1 shows the Project Trip Distributions and Figure 7 2 shows the Maximum Project Traffic Volumes for both Haul Trucks and Contractor/Construction Management trips under Phase 3 Pipe Connections. 22

27 100% Scripps Ranch Bl Mira Mesa Bl 100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% Lake M i r ama r 100% XX% XX% XX% XX% All Project Trips Distribution Contractor / CM Distribution (PM Outbound only) 100% Haul Truck Trips To / From I-15 north of Mira Mesa Bl 100% Haul Truck Trips To / From I-15 south of Mira Mesa Bl 15 Scripps Lake Dr [ N:\2204\Figures Date: 02/18/14 Figure 7-1 Project Traffic Distribution Nob Hill Improvement Project

28 Scripps Ranch Bl Mira Mesa Bl 11 / / 11 0 / / / 11 0 / 25 0 / / / / / 61 Lake M i r ama r 11 / / 61 XX / XX XX / XX XX / XX XX / XX All Project Trips Contractor / CM Trips (PM Outbound only) Haul Truck Trips To / From I-15 North of Mira Mesa Bl Haul Truck Trips To / From I-15 South of Mira Mesa Bl 15 Scripps Lake Dr [ N:\2204\Figures Date: 02/18/14 Figure 7-2 Maximum Project Traffic Volumes Nob Hill Improvement Project

29 8.0 NEAR-TERM BASELINE CONDITIONS 8.1 Cumulative Projects Cumulative projects are other nearby development projects that would be expected to be completed or under construction in the near future. LLG reviewed the most recent cumulative project information for the area to determine if traffic generated by these projects contributes to the expected general traffic growth under near-term conditions (approximately 2-3 years from today). Below are the descriptions of each cumulative project. 1. Stone Creek This proposed mixed-use project consists of 4,445 residential units, 174,000 square feet of retail uses, 200,000 square feet of office space, 850,000 square feet of industrial/business park use, 175 room hotel, and 26.2 acres of neighborhood park space. This project is located west of I-15 between Camino Ruiz and Black Mountain Road on both the north and south sides of Carroll Canyon Road. The first phase of the nearby Stone Creek project is expected to begin construction in the year 2015 with the second phase commencing in the year The additional of Phase I traffic accounts for 165,000 square feet of Light Industrial uses, or 2,640 ADT with approximately 317 AM peak hour trips (253 inbound/64 outbound) and 317 PM peak hour trips (64 inbound/253 outbound) generated during the near-term condition for the proposed Project. An NOP was issued for the EIR in The EIR has not yet been circulated for public review. 2. Miramar College Facilities Master Plan This multi-phased plan guides the expansion and renovation of facilities as enrollment grows in order to accommodate a maximum of 25,000 students. The campus is located on a site west of I-15, east of Black Mountain Road, south of Hillery Drive and north of Gold Coast Drive. A recent report predicts the college will surpass 10,000 full-time enrolled students by the year (Miramar College 2011). This represents approximately 40% or 3,117 ADT with approximately 374 AM peak hour trips (299 inbound/75 outbound) and 280 PM peak hour trips (168 inbound/112 outbound) generated during the near-term condition for the proposed Project. A Mitigated Negative Declaration was adopted for the project in Casa Mira View I This residential project would construct 1,848 multi-family dwelling units, and is located on the west side of I-15 just north of Mira Mesa Blvd. An EIR was prepared and certified for the Casa Mira View project in September 2008 (SCH No ). This project began construction in 2013, but is not yet occupied. This project is planned to build approximately 900 units or generate 5,400 ADT with 432 AM peak hour trips (86 inbound/346 outbound) and 540 PM peak hour trips (378 inbound/162 outbound) by the near-term condition for the proposed Project. 4. Carroll Canyon Commercial Center This proposed redevelopment project would demolish the existing vacant 76,241 square feet of office buildings and replace it with approximately 144,621 square feet of commercial retail space at the northeast corner of the I- 15 freeway at Carroll Canyon Road. The EIR for this project was released for public review 25

30 in September This project will generate 7,095 average daily trips with approximately 212 AM peak hour trips (128 inbound/84 outbound) and 710 PM peak hour trips (355 inbound/355 outbound). This project is planned to be built by the near-term condition for the proposed Project. 5. Glen at Scripps Ranch This project proposes the development of a continuing care retirement community (CCRC) consisting of 50 personal care units, 60 convalescent/nursing beds, and 400 independent care units. The project is located on the south side of Pomerado Road just west of Chabad Center Road. An EIR is being prepared for this project. This project is expected to generate 1,880 ADT with 144 AM peak hour (35 inbound/109 outbound) and 181 PM peak hour trips (121 inbound/60 outbound) by the near-term condition for the proposed Project. 6. Erma Road Apartments This residential project proposes the construction of approximately 114 apartment units located on the south side of Erma Road just east of I- 15. CEQA review for this project was based on an MND prepared for a similar project (the original Erma Road Project) that had proposed 95 condominium units. This project is expected to generate 684 ADT with 55 AM peak hour (11 inbound/44 outbound) and 62 PM peak hour trips (43 inbound/19 outbound) by the near-term condition for the proposed Project. 7. Casa Mira View II This residential project proposes the construction of 319 multi-family units located on the west side of I-15 just north of Mira Mesa Blvd. The MND for this project was approved in The traffic generated by this project is 1,914 ADT. This project is not planned to be built by the near-term condition for the proposed Project. Therefore, traffic from this project was not included in this analysis. 8. Fenton Carroll Canyon Tech Center This project involves the development of an 896,000-square foot Industrial Park generally located on the west side of Camino Santa Fe north of Carroll Canyon Road. Some of this project is constructed. Due to the location of this project, this project did not add any substantial traffic to the study area. Therefore, traffic from this project was not included in this analysis. 9. U. S. Army The U.S. Army proposes to construct a reserve center next to the existing U.S. Naval Reserve Center on Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. This center will have about 40 reservist a day and 300 reservists on weekends. An Environmental Assessment was prepared for this project under the National Environmental Policy Act. This project has not yet been constructed. It is expected to generate 242 average week-day daily trips. Due to the location of this project, this project did not add any substantial traffic to the study area. Therefore, traffic from this project was not included in this analysis. 26

31 10. Miramar Clearwells Improvement Project This City of San Diego project consists of the replacement of two existing semi-buried clearwells (potable water storage tanks) and their associated pipelines and appurtenances, the construction of a new chlorine contact chamber with an adjoining lift station, the construction of a new maintenance building; and associated site work and landscaping. These improvements are part of continued upgrades to the Miramar Wastewater Treatment Plant. The current schedule for completion of the design phase of the project is in February Construction is estimated to start in May A nominal amount of trips would be expected to be generated during the brief overlap in construction time with the proposed Project, therefore, traffic from this project was not included in this analysis. 11. I-15 Direct Access Ramp and Transit Station This Caltrans project will construct a Direct Access Ramp (DAR) and Transit Station that will connect to the Interstate 15 Express Lanes in the community of Mira Mesa. The Transit Station will be located south of the Hillery Dirve/Westview Parkway intersection on the north edge of San Diego Miramar College and will join the DAR located at Hillery Drive, just south of Mira Mesa Boulevard. Construction started in July 2012 and is expected to take two years. This project would not result in an increase in cumulative traffic within the study area, therefore, traffic from this project was not included in the analysis. 8.2 Near-Term Baseline Traffic Volumes The traffic generated by the cumulative projects was assigned to the study area and then added to the existing traffic volumes to arrive at the Near-Term Baseline condition. The Project traffic from Phase 3 was then added to the baseline to arrive at Near-Term Baseline + Maximum Project conditions. Table 8 1 shows the cumulative projects included in the near-term baseline analysis. Figure 8 1 shows the locations of the individual Cumulative Projects. Figure 8 2 shows the individual Cumulative Projects traffic volumes. Figure 8 3 shows the Near-Term Baseline traffic volumes and Figure 8 4 shows the Near-Term Baseline + Maximum Project traffic volumes. 27

32 TABLE 8 1 CUMULATIVE PROJECTS TRAFFIC EXPECTED DURING PROJECT CONSTRUCTION No. Name Type of Project ADT 1 Stone Creek 2 Miramar Community College Phase 1: 165,000 SF Light Industrial AM PM In Out In Out 2, Expanded Enrollment c 3, Casa Mira View Phase I 900 MFDU 3, Carroll Canyon Commercial Center 144,600 SF Commercial 7, Glen at Scripps Ranch Retirement Living 1, Erma Road 114 MFDU Casa Mira View II 319 MFDU a a a a a 8 Fenton Carroll Canyon Tech Center 9 U.S. Army 896,000 SF Industrial/Business Park Military Reserve Base Expansion b b b b b b b b b b 10 Miramar Clearwells Improvement Project Public Works 11 I-15 DAR & Transit Station Caltrans Improvement c c c c c d d d d d Total 19, Footnotes: a. No cumulative traffic was added to the study area since this project is not expected to be completed by the near-term condition. b. No cumulative traffic was added to the study area due to this project s distance from the proposed Project site. c. The nominal amount of trips expected to be generated during the brief overlap in construction time with the proposed Project was not included in this analysis. d. No cumulative traffic was added to the study area since this project is a Caltrans freeway capacity improvement. 28