Missouri Energy Initiative. The Utility of the Future And Changes to Infrastructure Needs. October 2017
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1 Missouri Energy Initiative The Utility of the Future And Changes to Infrastructure Needs October 2017
2 Market forces continue to put pressure on the current utility business model Drivers of Business Model Change 2017 Digitally Enabled Grid Energy efficiency and cost-competitive distributed energy resources Increased focus on resiliency and reliability Choice-conscious and sophisticated customers Shifting energy policy and new regulatory models Asymmetric competition 45% 56% 66% 61% of utility executives believe today s cost of service model is inadequate to meet technical challenges and financial goals expect an increase in grid faults due to DER by 2020 expect their company s role to evolve to integrate distributed energy resources (DER) and facilitate DER grid services expect the distribution network to evolve as an active monitoring and optimization of network assets Sources: Accenture New Energy Consumer 2017, Accenture Digitally Enabled Grid 2017, Accenture Capital Theft POV
3 The old curve of innovation adoption has been replaced by big bang disruption that has ambushed entire industry models Trial Users Everybody Else THE SHARK FIN Film Rentals Taxi Services Mapping / GPS Hotels Innovators (2.5%) Early Adopters (13.5%) Early Majority (34%) Late Majority (34%) Laggards (14%) Source: P. Nunes, Accenture Institute for High Performance, Big Bang Disruption 3
4 .and dramatic disruptive technologies are coming at utilities at an unprecedented pace Technologies Today Drivers TRANSFORMATION OF TRANSPORTATION 13m EVs globally EVs parity with ICE vehicles >50% of US population ridden in autonomous vehicle LCOE of Li ion EV range Charging infrastructure deployment Reduction in vehicle ownership from ride-sharing DISTRIBUTED GRID RESOURCES 300GW Solar Installed Globally PV LCOE Grid Parity Fuel Cell LCOE Grid Parity $20b US grid mod cost Installed solar >50% of US peak load Li Ion installed cost per MWh Rate of PV growth (40% per year since 1970 s) REVOLUTION IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY <1% US load growth 60% LED installed penetration ECMs in >50% of new appliances installed Avg. home load down 50% vs 2016 LED cost decline (90% since 2008) ECM efficiency (50% vs 20% for induction motor) Demand response participation rate DIGITAL CUSTOMER LIFESTYLE 40m smart thermostats in US 80b connected things installed worldwide Connected device penetration Mobile app adoption THE DIGITAL ENTERPRISE 30k commercial drones in US 2b virtual assistances 38% of US jobs replaced by robots Workforce automation Shift from hosting to cloud Published references (i.e, Intl. Energy Agency, US Energy Info. Admin., Greentech Media, Goldman Sachs, Forbes, Bloomberg) Accenture perspective 4
5 The utility model of today must be transformed to adapt to disruptive technologies 5
6 With the right regulatory incentives in place, there is a path to growth from the utility optimizing its asset base Substantial risk of capital spend degradation Increased pressure to capture earnings through operational efficiency measures to mitigate revenue contraction Opportunity driven by the combination of new capital spend opportunities, earning on alternatives to infrastructure, and increases in allowed ROR Diverse earnings opportunities shift focus from capital spend 6
7 Optimization can be achieved by tightly integrating with customers assets and behaviors Residential and SMB Generation Market Operations Transmission Distribution Commercial & Industrial ENERGY MARKET DISTRIBUTION DEMAND REQUIREMENTS Heat rate optimization Trading/ hedging Ramping needs Spinning reserve reduction Fuel optimization Energy arbitrage Loss reduction Frequency regulation Voltage optimization OPTIMIZATION Conserv. voltage reduction Power optimization Reliability/ resiliency T&D capital deferral System utilization Power quality DER integration/ optimization Locationbased incentives Energy efficiency adoption INTEGRATION Demand response Price/tariff optimization Energy service enablement Connected home Distributed generation HVAC/ appliances Transparency, convenience and control Storage Energy Management CHP Demand response e-vehicles Growth Platform 1: OPTIMIZING ENERGY VALUE CHAIN Growth Platform 2: NEW CUSTOMER USE MODELS 7
8 So what might be the impact to utility infrastructure? Key Capabilities Asset Types Bottoms-up and scenariobased asset investment planning Use of DERs as alternative to traditional asset infrastructure Asset analytics New operational technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence, drones Communications and control devices to monitor, analyze, and control the grid Electric vehicle infrastructure Non-wires alternatives (i.e, energy storage) Use of customer and thirdparty assets Smart city infrastructure 8
9 There are MANY new capabilities needed across the utility of the future 9
10 For instance, traditional grid investment planning will be replaced with scenario-based Investment Optimization Traditional grid reinforcement regime... Scenario-based Investment Planning Reinforced grid s acceptable risk level Reinforcing the grid Load Current grid s acceptable risk level Asset Management Planning Traditional and alternative assets Integrate with network planning Time of Day Network Planning Needs defined and communicated to customers Integrate with resource planning.. grid flexibility is enabled by integrated resource planning. Adoption Scenarios and Resource Plans Localized DER adoption scenarios Power supply forecasting across spectrum sources/loads Reinforcing the grid DER Solutions Enabling EE & Demand Response Load New solutions lower reinforcement costs while maintaining acceptable risk level Projected (energy transition driven) additional asset risk $ $ Baseload projected asset risk DER Integration Asset Performance / Optimization DER Procurement Seamless interconnect Procure contracted resources Assess delivered performance to inform asset and integrated resource planning Time of Day 10
11 For example, an electric vehicle ecosystem provides numerous opportunities for value and growth 1 EV CHARGERS FOR VEHICLES 2 VEHICLE TO GRID Locations compliant to commission guidelines, commercial charging stations Regulated EVs reduce or stop charging, act as available capacity, communicate and optimize the grid 6 DIGITAL ASSETS Regulated MARKET HUB PLATFORM Regulated Non-regulated 3 EV SHARING ECONOMY Communicates or self optimized for assets management and maintenance Non-regulated Platform for the smart home Non-regulated Network management, peer-to-peer traction & data monetization 5 BEYOND THE METER 4 DEVELOPERS & STARTUPS Integration of EV battery as a DER & creation of solutions for the platform Creating apps for the platform to help customers leverage their EV in new ways 11
12 Likewise, energy storage provides new opportunities to optimize the grid and customer assets GENERATION & WHOLESALE SOLUTIONS Power plant optimization, wholesale markets and ancillary services, solar & wind firming, and long-duration storage STORAGE R&D AND INNOVATION Pre-empting disruptive storage technologies by partnering with researchers, innovators & venture capitalists T&D OPTIMIZATION Upgrade deferral, renewables integration, congestion relief, voltage / reactive power support, line-loss reduction, asset life extension, reliability / outage mitigation STORAGE NETWORK NETWORKING STORAGE TO OPTIMIZE THE ELECTRIC SYSTEM BEYOND THE METER STORAGE Peer-to-peer transactions, digital trading platforms, battery data monetization uses beyond the grid and customer meter CUSTOMER ENERGY MANAGEMENT Demand charge avoidance, energy price arbitrage, and solar self-consumption CUSTOMER PEACE OF MIND On-premise reliability, resiliency, power quality and microgrid management MARKET MECHANISMS AND SIGNALS Products, tariffs, and price signals to monetize stacked value from deployed storage infrastructure FOUNDATIONAL UTILITY INVESTMENTS TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS Foundational technology investments to provide energy storage access to new revenue including DERMS, analytics, etc. 12
13 Smart cities is another key growth area for utility infrastructure Smart Cities Definiton 13
14 Utilities have a lot to bring to the Smart Cities game Utility Assets Wireless communications network One-way paging communications system SCADA / operational technology Owned T&D poles and right-of-way Owned real estate Operations Centers Fleet of vehicles (overhead and underground equipment) Business information systems (GIS, EAM, etc.) Utility Capabilities Energy Expertise Storm/Emergency Response Asset Management Work Management Customer Operations Fleet management Facilities management Network management Security / Cyber-security 14
15 Smart cities use cases can be organized across these key verticals 15
16 Public-private partnerships are key to bringing together the right inputs into the Smart Cities proposition Multi-stakeholder Smart City value network 16
17 There is an evolutionary path to the business model of the future Distribution of the Future Enhance Customer Access Enhanced customer education and outreach Streamlined interconnection of DER Aggregated DER participation in wholesale markets and targeted microgrid opportunities Modernized grid infrastructure to support increased of data and analytics Optimize Grid Performance Further improved customer experience through interconnection fast-tracking Utilization of DERs for capital deferral and grid services focused on improving utilization and efficiency Optimally targeted grid investments Rapid piloting and regulatory approvals of new programs and technologies Maximize Customer Value Flexibility to integrate customer DERs via distributed control capabilities Optimizing the grid with active control of loads Services to enable intelligent consumption and supply in a market via open exchange ~1-2 Years ~2-5+ Years ~6-10+ Years The vision for a new business model can be supported by foundational no regrets investments in the near term, unlocking grid performance benefits and enabling new customer interactions over time 17
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