Can fuel cells become a mass produced option globally for heavy duty trucks 2030+? An exploratory study

Transcription

1 Swedish Electromobility Centre Can fuel cells become a mass produced option globally for heavy duty trucks 2030+? An exploratory study Magnus Karlström, Elna Holmberg, Anders Grauers, Hans Pohl (RISE) 1

2 Swedish Electromobility Centre is a national Centre of Excellence for research and development of electric and hybrid vehicles and charging infrastructure. It is an arena where Sweden s automotive industry, universities and government agencies meet and collaborate to generate new technology, insights and competence for the future. System studies and methods Electrical machines and drives Elna Holmberg Swedish Electromobility Centre Energy storage Vehicle analysis Fuel cells 2

3 Part 1 Total Cost of Ownership study Compare FCV, BEV, ICE, ERS (Electric Road Systems) Part 2 A qualitative assessment of other factors influencing the outcome Year: Main case Germany, long haul But also Regional, City distribution And India, USA, China 3

4 Description of TCO study Exploratory Simplified (for example no lifetime issues with fuel cells, batteries and hydrogen storage) Data based on publicly available literature Discussed with stakeholders Ownership cost of first owner of Heavy Duty Truck 4

5 Preliminary Result TCO Germany Long Haul ( ) 7 years, Germany, Long Haul, 500 km between refueling, km/year Diesel: 0,15 /kwh, Elec.: 0,22 /kwh H2: 0,20 /kwh Fuel cell: 51 /kw Battery: 150 /kwh 5

6 Additional trucks for a specified transport task caused by lost load capacity to fuel/energy storage Diesel Hydrogen/ battery Long haul used factor: Hydrogen = Battery (BEV) Elna Holmberg Swedish Electromobility Centre 1,03 = 1,09 6

7 Preliminary German Niches for Long Haul (ERS not included) Diagram on next slide Long haul Difference from excel model: No interest rate Not include less function 200 /kwh 7

8 Preliminary Result TCO Germany Regional ( ) 7 years, Germany, Regional delivery, 300 km between refueling, km/year Diesel: 0,15 /kwh, Elec.: 0,22 /kwh H2: 0,20 /kwh Fuel cell: 51 /kw Battery: 150 /kwh 8

9 Preliminary German Niches for Regional Delivery (ERS not included) Difference from excel model: No interest rate Not include less function Regional delivery Diagram on next slide 9

10 Preliminary results TCO Germany City ( ) 7 years, Germany, City Distribution, 200 km between refueling, km/year Diesel: 0,15 /kwh, Elec.: 0,22 /kwh H2: 0,20 /kwh Fuel cell: 51 /kw Battery: 150 /kwh 10

11 Preliminary German Niches for City Distribution Germany (ERS not included) Difference from excel model: No interest rate Not include less function Battery 200 /kwh City distribution Diagram on next slide 11

12 Preliminary Result TCO USA Long Haul ( ) 7 years, USA, Long Haul, 500 km between refueling, km/year Diesel: 0,11 /kwh, Elec.: 0,12 /kwh H2: 0,16 /kwh Fuel cell: 51 /kw Battery: 150 /kwh 12

13 Tesla Semi Case USA ( USD + 7 Cent/kWH) No change of ICE FC and ERS 13

14 Preliminary conclusion one: Factors with high total cost impact Low total cost impact High total cost impact High uncertainty Cost of fuel cell system Cost of hydrogen storage Cost of electric machine Cost of hydrogen, electricity, diesel Residual value of BEV, FCV Less transport efficiency Km between refuelling Battery life length Cost of Battery Low uncertainty Not Listed Total mileage Cost of HEV powertrain Powertrain efficiencies Maintenance costs 14

15 Preliminary conclusion two /km for different fuels much more important than powertrain costs, such as fuel cell cost 15

16 Preliminary conclusion three TCO consequences If less tkm or m3km because of extra weight/volume of battery/hydrogen storage 16

17 Preliminary conclusion four City and regional better (TCO) for FCV than long haul compared with ICE However, ERS even better 17

18 Offert WELCOME TO CONTACT US Elna Holmberg, director Elna Holmberg Swedish Electromobility Centre 18

19 Why do we get these results for City distribution? Even lower Efficiency of diesel engine lead to much higher fuel cost than for FCEV. Even smaller battery make it possible to pay back the battery investment. (However, only close to end of life!) City distribution 19

20 Economic risk? Example from regional delivery BEV cost is higher than FCEV all the first km, only the last km there is a small profit. Changed conditions the first km risk to give a loss. The potential loss is bigger than the potential loss gain. r o f Risk Not a reasonable risk? Maximum profit Can battery leasing be a solution? Regional delivery 20

21 ERS road cost per kwh Cost used in TCO analysis Typical for major Swedish roads Truck traffic density for some big German Autobahn 21

22 Electric Road System Should be possible with catenary lines on only 33% of the road Gradients are positive can reduce the percentage of catenary Catenary in uphill gradients give several advantages: Lower vehicle speed give more time to charge/km-catenary High energy consumption increase the power take from the catenary Higher portion of power goes directly to the wheel without passing the battery Reasonable with its own supply line parallel to the road Traffic density (both directions) is between Trucks per day on major Swedish roads. How many of these are likely to use an ERS? 22

23 ERS cost per km road one lane Räkna utnyttjandegrad för olika trafiktätheter Typical for Swedish major roads 23