India Power Generation March 2018

Transcription

1 ESS 9/12/2018 1

2 India Power Generation March 2018 Total 379 GW 40, 10% 65, 17% 45, 12% 7, 2% 223, 59% Total 379 GW Thermal Nuclear Hydel Renewable Captive Renewable break up: 65 GW Solar : 19.5 GW Wind : 33 GW Bio : 8.5 GW 186, 49% 84, 22% 109, 29% Central State Private 9/12/2018 2

3 Power Supply Position (Actual) (Actual) (Projected) Actual Growth % Projected Growth % (Projected) Growth% Energy Requirement (MU) 1,114,408 1,142,929 1,214, ,229, Peak Demand (GW) 153, , , , Energy Availability (BU) 1,090,851 1,135,334 1,230, ,337, Peak Met (GW) 148, , , , LGBR Report 9/12/2018 3

4 Power Supply Projection Energy Peak Region Requirement Availability Surplus(+) / Deficit(-) Demand Availability Surplus(+) / Deficit(-) MU MU MU % MW MW MW % Northern 373, ,715 36, ,800 60,600 3, Western 366, ,595 47, ,842 57,224 8, Southern 323, ,051 23, ,908 45, Estern 150, ,871 (280) ,577 23,743 2, North- Eastern 16,106 16, ,727 2, All India 1,229,660 1,337, , , ,601 11, LGBR Report 9/12/2018 4

5 Energy Consumption Pattern+ RE Evening Peak Morning Peak Intermittency, Peaking Power and Excess Energy

6 Thermal power retiring Thermal Power plants in India Fuel Type Age Qty Capacity (MW) 1-5 Years 28 31, Years 37 44, Years 13 11,040 Coal Years 11 7, Years 13 13, Years 10 5,244 >30 Years 37 34,655 Under retirement process 9 3,297 Total Coal Power plants 158 1,51,249 Gas Years 70 28,317 Diesel Years Total Thermal Power Plants 1,80,513

7 Electrification In India Rural household electrification rate State 100% Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Gujarat, Puducherry % % Punjab (99.99%), Himachal Pradesh (99.17%), Maharashtra (98.25%), West Bengal (98.03%), Haryana (96.04%), Telangana (93.87%), Karnataka (93.79%), Chhattisgarh(91.27%), Mizoram (90.21%), Uttarakhand (88.83%), Madhya Pradesh (85.51%), Sikkim (84.90%), Jammu & Kashmir (79.44%), Rajasthan (78.72%), Manipur (77.06%), Bihar (74.44%), Nagaland (73.56%), Tripura (72.28%), % Meghalaya (69.92%), Arunachal Pradesh (65.62%), Odisha (63.77%), Assam (57.00%), Uttar Pradesh (55.98%), Jharkhand (47.77%) Rural Micro Grids were discussed on the context of cost of bringing electricity to a remote village vs setting up a local generation there itself. But now all villages are electrified. House holds are not, but can we do business at house hold level in those states? 9/12/2018 7

8 Electrification In India 100% Urban household electrification rate % State Gujarat, Jammu & Kashmir, Sikkim, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Haryana, West Bengal, Tripura, Meghalaya Maharashtra (99.84%), Karnataka (99.83%), Himachal Pradesh (99.76%), Telangana (99.73%), Rajasthan (99.19%), Mizoram (98.14%), Chhattisgarh(97.81%), Madhya Pradesh (97.37%), Kerala (95.73%) % Arunachal Pradesh (93.35%), Bihar (90.84%), Manipur (90.78%), Jharkhand (89.03%), Assam (85.83%), Uttar Pradesh (84.74%), Nagaland (82.83%), Uttarakhand (82.33%), Odisha (82.02%) 9/12/2018 8

9 .. And So there is a need for storage

10 General Expectations of BESS Solar Generation Smoothening Frequency Regulation Energy Time Shifting (peak support) Solar Power Generation Forecasting VAR Support Spinning Reserve Black Start

11 Who Will Go For ESS Transmission Licensee Generating Companies Distribution Licensee Captive Bulk Consumer Ancillary market Facilitator Generation obligation Ancillary market RE Smoothening DSM Peak shifting To flatten the demand curve Reliability Power Trading Arbitrage Bill Management Back up Along with Roof Top Bill Management PGCL NTPC, NLC, NHPC, SECI, IPPs BSES, TATA, Reliance etc Industrial, Commercial Industrial, Commercial

12 Revenue Models Renewable Generating station: There is no separate tariff for the power plants with ESS. ESS cost is recovered through DSM process (Primary) Can also participate in peak demand management as a secondary revenue Can participate in storage as service Conventional Generating station: Primary source is by peak hours tariff. Again there will not be any change in the contractual purchase price More beneficial to distribution companies, as they don t need to buy in the open market for higher price Distribution Companies Evening Peak Support Reliable Power

13 Project Cost At the moment Cr/MW Incuding BMS, Cotainer, Cabling, Battery Racks, 20 year Battery/MWH warranty, installation&commissioing Including container, EMS, 11 year warranty, PCS 0.7 installation&commissionig, SCADA BoS 0.4 MV, LT, Transformer, Control Panel, Metring, Cabling Civil&Project Cost ~ USD 525/KWH Recent tender for a 20MW Solar with 16MW/8MWH is taken at a an L1 price of 131 Cr 9/12/

14 ESS Market Drivers - Global Market Segmment Application Key Drivers Utility Scale Behind-the-Meter Remote Power System Systems installed on the T&D networks providing services to Grid operators Installed on the customer side of a utility meter and primarily help reduce costs and improve resiliency residential / commercial / industrial user Storage systems operating as part of isolated electricity networks 1. Substantial Growth in the Renewable Energy 2. Governments efforts to reduce Corbob emissions 3. New infrastrucrure to modenrnize and expand the grid 4. Improvement to the resilience of the grid (Natural disasters) 1. Increasing grid prices 2. Peak demand and Time of Use price 3. Roof Top Solar 1. High energy costs associated with Diesel generators 2. EV battery charging stations 9/12/

15 Grid Scale Battery Energy Storage System ABD2 Project : Design, Supply, Installations, Errection, Testing & Commissioning of 250kW/500kWh GBESS Applications : Energy Time Shifting Solar Generation Smoothening VAR Compensation Frequency Regulation Energy Container Lead Acid Battery Storage - 684V/680Ah - 2 Strings Power Conversion System (PCS) kw Energy Management System 40ft Energy Container with HVAC,FFS & Lighting System Power Evacuation System Power Transformer- 500kVA, 380V/33kV ONAN Type Inverter Duty T/F MV Panel - 33kV/630A, 25kA/3Sec ICOG MV Panel with necessary Protections SKID for mounting MV Panel, Transformer Power Evacuation System with Skid Mount Substations 15

16 Next Steps We can try influence the policies, be part of representative bodies Though at the moment ESS cannot compete with Grid at Residential level, can compete wit DG in Commercial & Industrial segment (immediate opportunity) Having Hybrid Inverter technology is important (1-2 years) 9/12/

17 EV Demand Drivers Political Economica l Social Technological One Time Govt. monetary subsidies at Purchase Fuel Prices on the rise Shared Mobility Charging Time Post purchase benefits Non-monetary Govt. Regulations Diesel Car Price post BSVI :2020 Last Mile Connectivity Green Image Energy Storage Element Cost is becoming Affordable Power Availability Charging Infrastructure Employment 9/12/

18 Market Influencers NEMP 2020 and FAME INDA schemes shows that the Central Government is committed to support the nascent industry for long Political time implying certainty of stakeholder The e-rickshaws are now eligible for funding at concessional rate of interest under the Mudra Scheme. Reduction of applicable taxes by central and various state Governments Delhi Government has announced special subsidy on e-rickshaw Subsidies on the registration charges for E-Rickshaws by various state Governments. AP Cabinet approves Electric Mobility policy with 30,000Crs : Complete reimbursement of Road Tax for 5 years on sale of EV, 1 lakh EV charging stations, 100% electric buses in 4 cities, 10 GWhr battery manufacturing, 100% Government vehicles to become EV 9/12/

19 EV Penetration Forecast for India Agency Scenario 2020 Forecast 2025 Forecast UNEP, IIM Ahmedabad, CEPT University EV Policies + high carbon tax 2.5% 28% EV Policies scenario 2.5% 25% Business as usual 2.5% 2.5% J.P Morgan (2016) 2% No forecast for 2025 Frost & Sullivan (2016) 2-9% No forecast for 2025 Bloomberg(2017) 0.6% 5% ESAI Energy (2017) 5% 25% (2030) Niti Aayog Business as usual 2% by 2030 Roland Berger Transformative 70% by 2030 Business as usual 0.03% 2% Market Pull Scenario 9% 15% Regulatory Push Scenario 13% 18% Rapid transition scenario 17% 25% Source : Roland Berger,October /12/

20 Business Models Default Swapping Energy Selling/ PMS Vehicle comes with the battery from OE and uses either onboard charger or a charging station for battery charging Vehicle cost with battery is not affordable at the moment and this may be costly solution In this case, vehicle comes without battery and battery can be subscribed. Battery charging happens at bulk charging stations and swapped at swapping stations. Could be useful for 2W, 3W and vehicles that need a shorter range. Useful for aggregators Battery is not part of vehicle even in this case. Battery becomes part of the energy infrastructure. Could be useful for large scale deployment. 9/12/

21 EV Chargers Bulk Charging Station Input: (90-300)Vac Output: 48V, 1KW, 2KW and 3KW High Efficiency : > 93% Less weight: 2.5Kg Active Power Factor Communication with Battery (CAN) On-board compatible Fan cooled 21

22 60kW and 120KW DC Charging Pile AC AND DC CHARGIND STATIONS Product Capacity Type Single Charging Wall Mounted 7KW AC Charging Plug Floor Stand Station Double Charging 40KW Plugs Floor Stand Integrated Single Charging Plug 0-60KW Double Charging Integrated Plugs Integrated Single Charging Plug DC Charging KW Double Charging Station Integrated Plugs Big capacity Split Single Charging Plug (under Double Charging Split 375KW) Plugs Items Electric Parameters Input voltage range AC 380V±20% Output voltage DC200V-500V DC250V-750V Input current harmonic Stabilized current 5% component precision ±1% Power factor 0.99 Stabilized voltage precision ±0.5% Input frequency 45Hz-65Hz Efficiency 94% BMS auxiliary power supply 12V/20A or 24V/20A Charging Mode Rated power charging, Timing charging, Ration charging, auto full charging, Reservation charging Identity verification:ic card, QR code, DPC APP Man-machine interaction Indicator lamp:full color LED light Display: 7' TFT LCD touch screen (Can be expanded ) Protection function Emergency shunt down protection;over voltage protection; Over current protection; Short circuit protection; leakage protection; lightning protection Environment Working Temperature :-20 ~50 ;Relative humidity:5%~95%(without condensation);altitude:<2000m ( over altitude will derating ) Communication interface CAN/RS485/Ethernet/bluetooth/GPRS/3G/4G/WIFI(optimal) Charging Plug Qty:1 or 2 IP Level IP55(outdoor) Safety EMC Dimension 60kW model Dimension 120kW model Equipment accessories (optimal) Leakage protection:<30ma insulation resistance:>10mω Insulation Withstand voltage:ac 2kV impulse withstand voltage:ac 5kV Electrostatic discharge immunity:level 3 RFEMS:level 3 Electrical fast transient immunity:level 3 Surge immunity:level 3 Voltage dips and short interruptions immunity:level 3 650mm 650mm 1600mm(W D H) 650mm 650mm 1800mm(W D H) Energy meter; IC card reader 22

23 EV products e-rickshaw BMS AR BMS IIT BMS Product Rating : 1.5KW 30A continuous charge & discharge current Audio alarm Low Power Consumption Data Logging Battery pack series connections (for HV application)) DBT to highest automotive standards Li-ion Telecom BMS Product Rating : 1.0KWH 22A continuous charge & discharge current Audio alarm Load remove detection Low Power Consumption Data Logging 1.5KWh Battery Pack 23

24 THANK YOU 9/12/