Design efficiency of ships historical developments and impact of the EEDI. Greentech 2015 Seattle

Transcription

1 Design efficiency of ships historical developments and impact of the EEDI Greentech 215 Seattle

2 CE Delft Independent research and consultancy since Transport, energy and resources. Know-how on economics, technology and policy issues. Not-for-profit. Projects on environmental impacts of shipping for over 15 years. Clients: Ports, European Commission and Parliament, national and regional governments (Germany, UK, Netherlands), shipping companies, trade associations and environmental NGOs. All our publications 2

3 Outline Policy relevance of this study Methods for assessing design efficiency of ships Historical development of design efficiency of ships Recent developments in design efficiency Conclusions 3

4 Policy relevance Design efficiency of ships is regulated since 213. New ships need to have an Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) that is better than a reference line. In the next years, the minimum required distance to the reference line will increase by 1% (215), 2% (22) and 3% (225). A review of the 2% target is being conducted. The reference line has been defined as the best fit power curve through the Estimated Index Values (EIVs) of ships that have entered the fleet between 1999 and 28. The EIV is a simplified form of the EEDI. 4

5 Methods for assessing design efficiency of ships Estimated Index Value (EIV) (tonne CO 2 /tonne.nm) EIV declines with size of the ship Therefore, we use the average relative difference between the EIV and the EEDI reference line as the indicator of the design efficiency of ships 5

6 EEDI Methods for assessing design efficiency of ships Strong correlation between EEDI and EIV 3 Relation between EEID and EIV 25 2 y =.8612x R² = EIV 6

7 EIV Average deviation from EEDI referenceline Historical development of design efficiency Bulk carriers 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Bulk carrier: all sizes -15% Bulker best fit pow er curves for different periods Bulkers - 6's Bulkers - 7's Bulkers - 8's Bulkers - 9's Dwt 7

8 EIV Average deviation from EEDI referenceline Historical development of design efficiency Tankers 15% 1% Tanker: all sizes 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% Tanker reference lines based on different time periods Reference line Tankers - 6's Tankers - 7's Tankers - 8's Tankers - 9's Dwt 8

9 EIV Average deviation from EEDI referenceline Historical development of design efficiency Container ships 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Containership: all sizes -5% Container best fit pow er curves for different periods Containers - 7's Containers - 8's Containers - 9's 5 5, 1, 15, Dwt 9

10 Pme, dwt, v Index (21 = 1) Average deviation from EEDI referenceline Pme, dwt, v Index (21 = 1) Average deviation from EEDI referenceline Historical development of design efficiency Example: tankers 6-1k dwt improvement Size increase P ME decrease Speed slight decrease deterioration Size increase PME increases more Speed constant Hull shape, propeller, and speed can explain differences Tanker: all sizes 2 1% % % 1 8-5% 6 4-1% 2-15% Speed Pme Dwt % dev from reference line Tanker: dwt 2 3% 18 2% % 12 % 1 8-1% 6-2% 4 2-3% -4% Speed Pme Dwt % dev from reference line 1

11 Historical development of design efficiency Hull shape Slimmer, more efficient designs (higher length/displacement ratio, lower C b ) in the 198s Fuller designs (lower length/displacement ratio, higher C b ) post 199 Propeller Anecdoctal evidence of sub-optimal propellers in the 199s and 2s Lightweight of the ship Heavier ships have a higher wetted surface and higher water and wave resistance 11

12 Average deviation from EEDI referenceline Historical development of design efficiency Design choices driven by: Fuel price (higher fuel price: more efficient ship) Freight rate (high freight rate: higher C b ) Opportunity costs of building time (high opportunity costs: simpler designs: fuller ships) Steel prices, labour costs, 4% 3% Bulk carrier % 8 1% 6 % 4-1% 2-2% Average curede oil price (USD 21/bbl) Regulation that have had an impact on lightweight (double hull tankers, structural rules, et cetera) 12

13 Recent developments in design efficiency Several developments may have had an impact on the design efficiency of new ships: Decrease in freight rates in 28 Fast recovery of fuel prices after 28 EEDI requirements for ships built since

14 Containers 35 Strong improvement in design efficiency Especially for large container ships More than 5% of new ships in 213 and 214 meet 22 standards Lower speed, lower P ME, larger ships EIV %deviation Mean -2% -2% -8% -9% -21% -29% from reference line Number of Total ships number EIV under > % 64% 57% 63% 73% 87% 95% reference > 1% 16% 21% 43% 52% 72% 84% line > 2% 5% 5% 14% 2% 51% 61% > 3% 2% 1% 6% 9% 26% 34% Reference line 14

15 Bulk carriers Improvements in design efficiency since 213 About a third of new ships meet 215 standards Higher speed, lower P ME, smaller ships Reference line EIV %deviation Mean 5% 6% 7% 6% 2% -3% from reference line Number of Total ,15 1, ships number EIV under > % 3% 29% 23% 35% 53% 68% reference > 1% 9% 8% 8% 11% 25% 36% line > 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 8% > 3% % % % % % 1% 15

16 Tankers Improvements in design efficiency since 213 About half of new ships meet 215 standards Equal speed, equal P ME, equal size Reference line EIV %deviation Mean 2% 2% 2% -1% -1% -1% from reference line Number of Total ships number EIV under > % 43% 47% 45% 49% 48% 63% reference > 1% 14% 15% 15% 18% 16% 46% line > 2% 3% 2% 2% 6% 5% 26% > 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 11% 16

17 Conclusions Historical efficiency of bulk carriers and tankers has improved in the 198s, was best in the 199, deteriorated in the 199s and 2s Similar pattern for container ships, but efficiency deteriorations have been offset by increases in size Efficiency of current ships 1% - 2% worse than best historical value Probably higher when taking into account engine improvements, propeller improvements, energy saving devices, etc. Large improvements are possible in relatively short time periods Recent developments show that designs have improved considerably EEDI: reference line -2% is not a problem 17

18 Thank you for your attention Jasper Faber All reports are available at 18

19 Sources CE Delft, 215, Historical trends in ship design efficiency, Delft CE Delft, 215, Estimated Index Values of New Ships: Analysis of EIVs of Ships That Have Entered The Fleet Since 29, MEPC 68/INF.25 19