BTM 3.0. Rossella Bardazzi Leonardo Ghezzi
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1 BTM 3.0 Rossella Bardazzi Leonardo Ghezzi XXIII World INFORUM conference Bangkok, 2015
2 OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION i) ii) iii) iv) Where do we come from? The INFORUM international system of models Main features of the new dataset The share equations: theoretical specification and estimation Scenario analysis to test the model potential v) Next steps
3 I) WHERE DO WE COME FROM? Main features of Bilateral Trade Model Type-I model Type-II model present i) The linking system of national models through BTM Multi-lateral flows; links trough World Prices Bi-lateral flows ii) a detailed disaggregation of commodity classification 120 sectors; 9 countries + 1 group 120 sectors; 13 countries + 3 groups iii) econometric estimation of import shares Relative prices Relative prices + relative capital stocks
4 II) THE NEW DATASET Main features: Data sources: EU COMEXT and UN - COMTRADE Classification: two-digits SITC classification Flows: Imports in US Dollars (current prices) Countries: 14 countries + 4 areas Coverage: (for the first 90 importers)
5 III) THEORETICAL SPECIFICATION OF THE SHARE EQUATIONS Type-II model The general equation to predict the evolution of M matrix is S i, j,t = i,j,0 P P e, i, t w, j, t i, j,1 e, i, t w, j, t Pi,j,t is the relative price of the origin country i in market j; the relative price is a ratio between the domestic price in i (adjusted with the exchange rate), Pe,i,t, and the world price as seen from the country j of destination of the flows, Pw,j,t. Domestic prices are weighted average of the present price and the four years-before price. The system of weights varies among different commodities. K K i, j,2 e i, j,3 T t
6 III) EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATION OF SHARE EQUATIONS Specification # equations P, K, T % P, K % P, T % K, T % P % K % T % Constant % Total # estimated equations % 84.1% zero shares % not enough observations % # of potential bilateral flows % Relative price is a key explanatory variable in 76.3% of the shares Relative capital stock is a key explanatory variable in 66.3% of the shares
7 III) ESTIMATION RESULTS: SHALL WE CONSTRAIN PARAMETERS? Chinese exports of machinery price elasticity capital elasticity
8 0.23 SECTOR: General mach IMPORTER: Middle-east Baseline IV) TO PREPARE THE BASELINE SCENARIO US 0.13 GERMANY 0.18 SECTOR: General mach IMPORTER: Middle-east Baseline 0.02 CHINA US CHINA a.tm50s12.17 a.tm50s2.17 a.tm50s Price Capital Nyhus Constant el. el. trend USA Germany China GERMANY a.tm50s12.17 a.tm50s2.17 a.tm50s7.17
9 0.28 SECTOR: General mach IMPORTER: Russia Baseline IV) TO PREPARE THE BASELINE SCENARIO GERMANY US a.tm50s12.14 a.tm50s2.14 a.tm50s7.14 CHINA 0.29 SECTOR: General mach IMPORTER: Russia Baseline CHINA Price Constant el. Capital el. Nyhus trend USA Germany China GERMANY US a.tm50s12.14 a.tm50s2.14 a.tm50s7.14
10 IV) SOME RESULTS FOR THE FASHION INDUSTRY IN THE JAPANESE MARKET Leather and Leather manufacturing Exporter intercept Price elasticity capital stock elasticity Nyhus time trend France Italy China Apparel Clothing Exporter intercept Price elasticity capital stock elasticity Nyhus time trend France Italy China Imports from China are very sensitive to price competitiveness, especially for leather goods Imports from China are very sensitive also to non-price competitiveness; so also in this traditional sector the role of investment process has been a key factor for Chinese producers French Leather goods are not so linked to price with respect to Italy; the opposite is true for clothes and apparel There are no chanches in the Japanese market in the future for European fashion industry
11 A scenario analysis: an example
12 The situation in Europe Aggregate demand deficit: the actual level of investment is not sufficient to reduce the level of unemployment in Europe. (Secular Stagnation?). In the medium term an high level of inflation is not a realistic scenario. The risk of deflation is higher than that of rising inflation In Europe we have a problem called internal current account imbalances A solution for Europe To increase the wage rate in Germany. The consequence for Germany, respect to baseline, is an higher level of: - Imports; - inflation A big push to investment planned in order to increase the potential output in countries experienced a big drop in GDP
13 INTRA EZ: TEXTILE MANUFACTURES SECTOR: Textile Man Germany vs France Textile manufacture France vs Germany Textile manufacture France vs Germany 0.12 Germany in France 0.06 France in Germany - - a.tm42s7.6 a.tm42s6.7 DRAGHI_ger DRAGHI_fra JUNKER_ger JUNKER_fra 0.18 SECTOR: Textile Man Italy vs Germany Italy in Germany Textile manufacture Germany vs Italy Textile manufacture Germany vs Italy 0.09 Germany in Italy - - a.tm42s8.7 a.tm42s7.8 DRAGHI_ita DRAGHI_ger JUNKER_ita JUNKER_ger Baseline domestic prices for EZ 2015: -10%; : -1% Capital stock for EZ : +3%
14 INTRA EZ: GENERAL MACHINERY 0.27 SECTOR: General Mach Germany vs France General Machinery France vs Germany General Machinery France vs Germany a.tm50s7.6 a.tm50s6.7 DRAGHI_ger DRAGHI_fra JUNKER_ger JUNKER_fra 0.30 SECTOR: General Mach Italy vs Germany General Machinery Germany vs Italy General Machinery Germany vs Italy a.tm50s8.7 a.tm50s7.8 Baseline DRAGHI_ita DRAGHI_ger domestic prices for EZ 2015: -10%; : -1% JUNKER_ita JUNKER_ger Capital stock for EZ : +3%
15 INTRA EZ: SPECIAL MACHINERY 0.35 SECTOR: Special Mach Germany vs France Special Machinery France vs Germany Special Machinery France vs Germany 0.17 a.tm48s7.6 a.tm48s6.7 - DRAGHI_ger DRAGHI_fra - JUNKER_ger JUNKER_fra SECTOR: Special Mach Italy vs Germany Special Machinery Germany vs Italy Special Machinery Germany vs Italy a.tm48s8.7 a.tm48s7.8 DRAGHI_ita DRAGHI_ger JUNKER_ita JUNKER_ger Baseline domestic prices for EZ 2015: -10%; : -1% Capital stock for EZ : +3%
16 INTRA EZ: INORGANIC CHEMICALS 0.23 SECTOR: Inorganic Chem Germany vs France Inorganic Chemicals France vs Germany Inorganic Chemicals France vs Germany a.tm30s7.6 a.tm30s6.7 DRAGHI_ger DRAGHI_fra JUNKER_ger JUNKER_fra 0.20 SECTOR: Inorganic Chem Italy vs Germany Inorganic Chemicals Germany vs Italy Inorganic Chemicals Germany vs Italy a.tm30s8.7 a.tm30s7.8 DRAGHI_ita DRAGHI_ger JUNKER_ita JUNKER_ger Baseline domestic prices for EZ 2015: -10%; : -1% Capital stock for EZ : +3%
17 EXTRA EZ SECTOR: Textile Manufactures Chinese market SECTOR: Textile Manufactures US market Italy Germany Italy France Germany France a.tm42s7.12 a.tm42s6.12 a.tm42s8.12 c.tm42s7.12 c.tm42s6.12 c.tm42s8.12 a.tm42s7.2 a.tm42s6.2 a.tm42s8.2 c.tm42s7.2 c.tm42s6.2 c.tm42s8.2
18 EXTRA EZ 0.15 SECTOR: Inorganic Chemicals Chinese market 0.10 SECTOR: Inorganic Chemicals US market 0.08 a.tm30s7.12 a.tm30s6.12 a.tm30s8.12 c.tm30s7.12 c.tm30s6.12 c.tm30s8.12 a.tm30s7.2 a.tm30s6.2 a.tm30s8.2 c.tm30s7.2 c.tm30s6.2 c.tm30s8.2
19 EXTRA EZ 0.27 SECTOR: General Machinery Chinese market 0.13 SECTOR: General Machinery US market a.tm50s7.12 a.tm50s6.12 a.tm50s8.12 c.tm50s7.12 c.tm50s6.12 c.tm50s8.12 a.tm50s7.2 a.tm50s6.2 a.tm50s8.2 c.tm50s7.2 c.tm50s6.2 c.tm50s8.2
20 EXTRA EZ 0.22 SECTOR: Special Machinery Chinese market 0.19 SECTOR: Special Machinery US market a.tm48s7.12 a.tm48s6.12 a.tm48s8.12 c.tm48s7.12 c.tm48s6.12 c.tm48s8.12 a.tm48s7.2 a.tm48s6.2 a.tm48s8.2 c.tm48s7.2 c.tm48s6.2 c.tm48s8.2
21 THIS KIND OF POLICY DRIVES EUROPE TOWARDS A MORE SUSTAINABLE PATH OF INTERNAL TRADE FLOWS. ACCORDING TO OUR ESTIMATION THE CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES SHOULD DECREASE AT THE SAME TIME THIS POLICY IS ABLE TO IMPROVE THE EXTERNAL COMPETITIVENESS OF ALL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. GERMANY WILL INCREASE ITS WITH RESPECT TO NON-EURO MARKET. THE SAME FOR ITALY AND FRANCE
22 0.79 SECTOR: Office mach IMPORTER: USA Baseline 0.23 V) NEXT STEP SECTOR: Office mach IMPORTER: China Baseline a.tm51s a.tm51s12.2 SECTOR: Telecom IMPORTER: USA Baseline a.tm51s a.tm51s11.12 SECTOR: Telecom IMPORTER: China Baseline a.tm52s11.2 a.tm52s12.2 a.tm52s2.12 a.tm52s11.12
23 V) NEXT STEP WHAT S THE VALUE ADDED GENERATED IN US IN TELECOM AND OFFICE SECTOR? WHAT S THE VALUE ADDED OBTAINED BY CHINA IN THESE SECTORS? WHAT S THE IMPACT OF THIS TRADE RELATION ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE OTHER US INDUSTRIAL SECTORS? WHAT S THE IMPACT ON DOMESTIC PRICES ALL AROUND THE WORLD? It s impossible to give an answer to these questions using just the BILATERAL TRADE MODULE. We need to complete the project linking the BILATERAL TRADE MODULE to a GROUP OF NATIONAL DISAGGREGATED MODEL
24 Jap Ger Rus RPC Can Ita Fra USA BTM 3.0 BTM 3.0
25 Live animals Fertilizers (other than those of group 272) Meat Plastics in primary forms Dairy products Plastics in non-primary forms Fish Chemical materials and products, n.e.s Cereals Leather, leather manufactures, n.e.s., and dressed furskins Vegetables and fruit Rubber manufactures, n.e.s Sugars, and honey Cork and wood manufactures Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices Paper Feeding stuff for animals Textile yarn, fabrics Miscellaneous edible products Non-metallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s Beverages Iron and steel Tobacco Non-ferrous metals Hides, skins and furskins, raw Manufactures of metals, n.e.s Oil-seeds and oleaginous fruits Power-generating machinery and equipment Crude rubber Machinery specialized Cork and wood Metalworking machinery Pulp and waste paper General industrial machinery and equipment, n.e.s., Textile fibres (other than wool) Office machines Crude fertilizers,and minerals (excluding coal, petroleum) Telecommunications Metalliferous ores and metal scrap Electrical machinery Crude animal and vegetable materials, n.e.s Road vehicles Coal, coke and briquettes Other transport equipment Petroleum,and related materials Prefabricated buildings; sanitary, plumbing, heating and lighting Gas Furniture Electric current Travel goods, handbags and similar containers Animal oils and fats Articles of apparel and clothing accessories Fixed vegetable fats and oils Footwear Animal or vegetable fats and oils, waxes Professional, scientific and controlling instruments Organic chemicals Photographic apparatus Inorganic chemicals Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e.s Dyeing, tanning and colouring materials Special transactions Medicinal and pharmaceutical products Coin (other than gold coin), not being legal tender Essential oils and resinoids and perfume materials; toilet, po Gold, non-monetary (excluding gold ores and concentrates)
26 EU Other Countries EU data from COMEXT - imports - exports data from COMEXT - exports Other Countries data from COMEXT -imports no data from COMEXT
27 Ordered Country list CA ; "Canada" US ; "United States of America" MX ; "Mexico" AT ; "Austria" BE ; "Belgium" FR ; "France" DE ; "Germany" IT ; "Italy" ES ; "Spain" GB ; "Great Britain" JP ; "Japan" CN ; "China, RPC KR ; "Korea" RU ; "Russia" REZ ; "Rest of Euro Zone, Finland - Ireland - Netherland - Portugal - Greece - Lux" REU ; "Rest of EU, Bul- Cyp- Hro- Den- Est- Lat- Mal- Pol- Cze- Rom- Slo- Slo- Swe- Hun" OIL ; "Oil Producers, United Arab Emirates - Iraq - Iran - Qatar - Saudi Arabia - Kuwait" RoW ; "Rest of the World"
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