NRMM ENGINE & AFTERTREATMENT FORECAST

Transcription

1 In collaboration with Knibb Gormezano & Partners Years International Management & Technology Consultants NRMM ENGINE & AFTERTREATMENT FORECAST PROVIDING THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE INSIGHT AND ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL NONROAD MOBILE MACHINERY POWERTRAIN SECTOR Issue 4

2 ABOUT US Knibb, Gormezano and Partners (KGP) provides consultancy services to the automotive and related industries worldwide. Since our foundation in 1988 we have helped over 500 companies worldwide grow and globalise. Our extensive global network is constantly being expanded to meet our customers requirements. SECTORS Light Vehicles (Cars and LCVs) Heavy Commercial Vehicles & Trailers Off-Highway and Industrial Vehicles Tractors and Agricultural Machinery Marine Components Materials Aftermarket ESP s PROJECTS Single Client Multi-Client Special Reports North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Rest of World CLIENTS Vehicle Manufacturers Component Suppliers Material Producers Service Providers (OE and Aftermarket) Government Finance Industry Others

3 Contents Contents Disclaimer and Usage Rights 1 Non-Road Mobile Machinery Forecast Subscription Offer 1 Acronyms 2 Introduction 3 Methodology... 4 Geographic Scope... 4 Time Scope... 4 Market Outlook 7 NRMM Production Forecast... 7 Agricultural Equipment... 8 Construction Equipment Material Handling Equipment Production Outlook 13 Regional Production Top Engine Manufacturer Production Regional Engine Manufacturer Production 17 Top OEM Production 21 Segment Production Agricultural Equipment Production Construction Equipment Production Materials Handling Production OEM Outlook Legislative Outlook 43 Production by Compliance Tier Asia Pacific NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) iii

4 Contents Latin America Central & Eastern Europe North America and EU & EFTA C & E Europe China EU & EFTA India Japan US & Canada Bharat Stage IV and Stage V Update 55 Cleaning up China The Global Impact 57 Background State III Future Legislation Divergence from Euro Stage IIIB/IV More stringent OBD required? Western OEMs WOFE vs JVs Timing Stage V Transitional Engines Impact and Opportunities 61 Legislation Timing Legislative Limits Engine Pre-Buy Technology Outlook 67 Technology options and Their Primary Roles: Asia Pacific Other Central & Eastern Europe China EU & EFTA India Japan Latin America US & Canada NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) iv

5 Contents The Future of Diesel 75 The Market Agricultural Machinery Construction Equipment Materials Handling Key Drivers Alternative Fuel Outlook Agriculture Construction Equipment Materials Handling Equipment The Technological Impact Key Drivers Agriculture Equipment Construction Equipment Engine Sourcing Outlook 85 Engine Sourcing by Region Engine Sourcing by Major OEMs Africa and Middle East Engine Sourcing by Segment Agricultural Equipment Construction & Earthmoving Machinery Materials Handling Equipment Financial Overview 93 Agricultural Equipment Construction Equipment Materials Handling Legislative Summary 99 European Union Legislation China Legislation Japan Legislation Brazil Legislation Major OEM Engine Ranges 103 NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) v

6 Contents AGCO Engine Ranges Caterpillar Engine Ranges Cummins Engine Ranges Deere Engine Ranges Deutz Engine Ranges Doosan Engine Ranges CNH/FPT Industrial Engine Ranges Isuzu Engine Range JCB Engine Range Kohler Lombardini Engine Range Komatsu Engine Range Kubota Engine Range Liebherr Engine Range MTU Engine Range Volvo CE & Volvo Penta Engine Range Yanmar Engine Range Contacts 112 About KGP 113 Other Reports - Annual Review About Off-Highway Research 114 NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) vi

7 Contents Figures Figure 1 NRMM Production Outlook by Segment (000s)... 8 Figure 2 AG Production Split by Region Figure 3 CE Production Split by Region Figure 4 MH Production Split by Region Figure 5 NRMM Production by Region (000s) Figure 6 Top 8 Engine Manufacturers by Region and Split by Estimated Market Share Figure 7 Top 8 Equipment Manufacturers by Region and Split by Estimated Production Share Figure 8 NRMM Production by Segment (000s) Figure 9 Global Agricultural Production Split by Power Figure 10 MH Production by Region Figure 11 NRMM Emissions Outline and Further Emissions Limitations Expected Figure 12 NOx and PM Emission Limits Figure 13 NRMM Production by Compliance (000s) Figure 14 C & E Europe NRMM Production by Emissions Compliance Figure 15 China NRMM Production by Emissions Compliance (000s) Figure 16 EU & EFTA NRMM Production by Emissions Compliance (000s) Figure 17: India NRMM Production by Emissions Compliance (000s) Figure 18 Japan NRMM Production by Emissions Compliance (000s) Figure 19 US & Canada NRMM Production by Emissions Compliance (000s) Figure 20 Emissions Stages Figure 21 Stage V Legislative Limits g/kwhr Figure 22 European Production by Compliance Figure 23 Increased engine production demand scenario (000s) Figure 24 Major OEMs Stage IV DPF Fitment Figure 25 Emissions Solution Assumptions Figure 26 NRMM Production by Individual Aftertreatment Technologies (000s) Figure 27: Agricultural Machinery Hybrisation and Electrification Outlook Figure 28: Construction Equipment Hybridisation and Electrification Outlook Figure 29: Materials Handling Equipment Hybrisation and Electrification Outlook Figure 30: Agricultural Equipment Alternative Fuel Outlook Market - Segmentation Figure 31: Construction Equipment Alternative Fuel Outlook - Market Segmentation Figure 32 Materials Handling Equipment Alternative Fuel Outlook - Market Segmentation NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) vii

8 Contents Figure 33: Technology Carry Over potential from CV to NRMM Figure 34 NRMM Production by Engine Sourcing (000s) Figure 35 CE Production by Engine Sourcing Figure 36 MH Production by Engine Sourcing Figure 37 European Union Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 38 US Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 39 China Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 40: Japanese Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 41 South Korean Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 42: Turkey Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 43 Brazil Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 44: Russia Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 45: India Emissions Legislation Timings Figure 46 AGCO Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 47 Caterpillar Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 48 Perkins Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 49 Cummins Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 50 Deere Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 51 Deutz Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 52 Doosan Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 53 FPT Industrial Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 54 Isuzu Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 55 JCB Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 56 Kohler Lombardini Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 57 Komatsu Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 58 Kubota Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 59 Liebherr Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 60 MTU Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 61 Volvo CE Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 62 Volvo Penta Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment Figure 63 Yanmar Engine Range & Aftertreatment Fitment NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) viii

9 Contents Table 33 NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 34 NRMM Production by Individual Aftertreatment Technologies Table 35 Asia Pacific Other NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 36 C & E Europe NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 37 China NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 38 EU & EFTA NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 39 India NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 40 Japan NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 41 US & Canada NRMM Production by Aftertreatment Solutions Table 42 NRMM Production by Engine Sourcing Table 43 NRMM Engine Market Non-Captive Engine Share by Region Table 44 Top 15 OEMs Engine Sourcing Outlook <56kW Table 45 Top 15 OEMs Engine Sourcing Outlook >56kW Table 46 Regional NRMM Production by Engine Sourcing Table 47 AG Production by Engine Sourcing Table 48 AG Production by Engine sourcing (000s) Table 49 CE Production by Engine Sourcing Table 50 MH Production by Engine Sourcing Table 51 Top Agricultural Machinery OEMs Quarterly Revenue Table 52 Top Construction Equipment OEMs Quarterly Revenue Table 53 Top Materials Handling OEMs Quarterly Revenue NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) ix

10 Market Outlook Disclaimer and Usage Rights Information contained in this document has been obtained by Knibb, Gormezano & Partners from industry sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Knibb Gormezano does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. This report is licensed for internal use only and should not be transmitted to 3rd parties without permission of Knibb Gormezano and Partners. Copyright Knibb Gormezano and Partners 2018 Non-Road Mobile Machinery Forecast Subscription Offer Purchasers of this report are entitled to a discounted extract of KGP s database within three (3) months of purchase, also available via our online-shop. The full database service costs for a single user download, with a quarterly summary report. A full subscription of 4 quarterly database deliveries, quarterly summary reports and the annual review is NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) 1

11 Market Outlook Acronyms AG Agricultural Equipment ASC Ammonia Slip Catalyst (Clean-Up-Catalyst) CE Construction Equipment DOC Diesel Oxidation Catalyst DPF Diesel Particulate Filter EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation FIE - Fuel Injection Equipment MH - Materials Handling Equipment NRMM Non-Road Mobile Machinery (Off-highway Equipment) SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) 2

12 Market Outlook Introduction KGP s Non-Road Powertrain services provide detailed insights into global NRMM production with a specific focus on engine and transmission (powertrain). This report is a summary of KGP s Q engine forecast focussed on the NRMM engine market. The service helps our customers understand an increasingly complex market by looking at the global production of machinery, engines and drivelines. Supporting this data, KGP provides a number of focussed reports examining the economic, social, political, legislative, technological and environmental drivers that impact the individual markets and how this, in turn, will affect the global marketplace for Non-Road mobile equipment engines. KGP s services provide insight that no other consultancy can provide. With almost 30 years consulting experience in the automotive and related sectors our understanding of the interaction between industry stakeholders is distilled into this report including insight into: OEM & supplier relationships OEM financial performance Engine & equipment OEM strategy Engine programs Legislation implementation Engine & aftertreatment Technology developments and penetration rates Transmission & driveline trends Customer buying trends NRMM Issue 4 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) 3

13 Methodology KGP partners with non-road market consultancy, Off-Highway Research 1, which provides KGP with base production history and sales forecasts for a number of markets and equipment segments. KGP combines available base data with additional primary and secondary data for its engine forecast which covers over 30 markets, 30 equipment types, over 150 manufacturers and 600 engine models. The primary research process, includes OEM, engine OEM and supplier interviews. The forecasting process then combines a sales driven production forecast with legislative, supply chain and OEM trends by equipment type. Geographic Scope This report is a summary of KGP s Multi-Client subscription database covering global production of Non-Road Mobile Machinery across the following markets/regions: Table 1 Geographic Scope Report Region Asia Pacific Other China India Japan EU & EFTA C & E Europe North America Latin America Countries ASEAN (Indonesia, Thailand), Pakistan, South Korea China India Japan EU28, Norway CIS, Turkey, Ukraine Canada, US Argentina, Brazil, Mexico Time Scope The horizon of the forecast in this report is In our forecast database we have a scenario to 2027 NRMM3 4

14 Market Outlook Equipment Scope Aerial Work Platform Agricultural Tractors Articulated Dump trucks Asphalt Finishers Backhoe Loaders Combine Harvester Compact Track Loader Compaction Equipment Crawler Dozers Crawler Excavators Crawler Loaders Forage Harvester Forestry Forklift Graders Mini Excavators Mobile Compressor Mobile Cranes Niche Harvester Rice Harvester Rigid Dump Trucks RTLTs - Masted RTLTs - Telescopic Scrapers Skid-Steer Loaders Sprayers Wheeled Excavators Wheeled Loaders Windrower NRMM Issue 3 2Q18 (1Q18 Forecast) 5