The State of the U.S. Biofuels Industry and Where It s Headed. Scott H. Irwin

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1 The State of the U.S. Biofuels Industry and Where It s Headed by Scott H. Irwin

2 Summary of Outlook 1. Conventional ethanol volume through 2022 will be 15 billion gallons due to recent U.S. Appeals Court decision 2. The next battle in the RFS political war will be fought over the advanced mandate. The outcome is uncertain. 3. Biodiesel will likely remain the marginal gallon for filling the RFS mandates, whatever the levels 4. Biodiesel supply curves are very elastic, which limits the biodiesel price impact of changing RVOs, tax credits, and trade policy 5. RINs price volatility will be high mainly due to uncertainty about the biodiesel tax credit

3 Background

4 The RFS as Agricultural Policy But the crucial thing to remember is that the RFS is not energy policy, it s agriculture policy. The RFS was initially conceived as a way to create a new market for American farmers Monthly Farm Price of Corn in Illinois, January March Price ($/bu.) Avg.=$1.28 Avg.=$2.42 $ Year Source: NASS/USDA

5 The RFS as Agricultural Policy We find that the RFS has indeed proven to be a remarkably effective tool for farm support. Relative to the scenario of no biofuels policies, the 2015 level of mandates entails a 34% increase in corn price, and 9% increase in soybean price /The-Renewable-Fuel-Standard-in-Competitive

6 The Grassley Rule The RFS will be repealed or modified over the cold, clammy, dead body of Senator Grassely of Iowa on the U.S. Senate Floor

7 The RFS as Energy Policy Weekly (Thursday) D4 Biodiesel, D5 Advanced, and D6 Ethanol RINs Price, 01/25/ /21/ Price ($/gal.) Source: OPIS Date

8 The RFS as Energy Policy The evidence is clear that the current ethanol fuel mandate is unworkable. The decision by the EPA to lower that standard is good news for Oklahoma consumers, Attorney General Pruitt said. It s good the Administration finally recognized the concerns of consumers and a variety of industries and took steps to correct this flawed program. Scott Pruitt, Attorney General of Oklahoma, November 18, 2013

9 The RFS as Energy Policy Source: Brown, T. R. Merchant Refiners Didn't Expect To Break This Record In Seeking Alpha, August 18,

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12 Marathon Petroleum 07/27/2017 Earnings Call for 2017Q2 The LLS-based blended crack spread increased from $7.66 per barrel in 2016 to $9.18 per barrel in the second quarter of this year. This increase was offset by several unfavorable impacts during the quarter. First, higher RIN prices produced a $70 million unfavorable RIN/CBOB crack adjustment. This increase in cost was considered in our pricing decision and passed on to consumers, thus an equivalent offset resides in the product portion of our other gross margin.

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17 Current Policy Situation

18 By the way, we re saving your ethanol industries in the state of Iowa just like I promised I would do in my campaign, Trump said in a speech in Cedar Rapids. Believe me they are under siege, folks. I don t know if you know it, but they are under siege.

19 U.S. Appeals Court RFS Decision, July 28, Decimated EPA interpretation of general waiver authority due to inadequate domestic supply 2. Confirmed precedent that it was OK for EPA to be late with 2014 and 2015 RFS rulemakings 3. Vacated 2016 RFS rulemaking 4. Implication: Narrow range for remedy of cuts to ethanol mandate that totalled 2.24 billion gallons

20 Scope for Waiving Mandates Beyond Cellulosic Waiver Narrowed by Decision Coppess, J. Upon Further Review: the Decision on EPA s RFS Waiver Authority. farmdoc daily (7):151, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 18,

21 Pruitt Unleashed 1. July 5, 2017: Lower proposed RFS advanced mandate for 2018 relative to 2017 final and no increase in proposed biomass-based diesel mandate for September 27, 2017: Further possible reductions in 2018 RFS advanced and biodiesel mandates based on cost, price impact of tax credit expiration, and import availability 3. September 27, 2017: Possible change in criteria for invoking general waiver authority due to severe economic or environmental harm to state, region or United States 4. September 27, 2017: Possible application of special waiver authority for biomass-based diesel mandate 5. September 28, 2017: Change policy of requiring RINs for biofuel exports to be retired (rumor) 6. XXXX, 2017: Increase number of small refinery exemptions (rumor)

22 Weekly (Thursday) Wholesale Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) and Energy-Adusted Biodiesel Price at Chicago, 01/25/ /21/2017 Biodiesel Energy-Adjusted 5.00 Price ($/gal.) ULSD Date Source: OPIS

23 Likelihood of Implementation High: Further reductions in 2018 advanced and biodiesel mandates based on cost, price impact of tax credit expiration, and import availability arguments 1. EPA does not need to invoke any waiver authority to lower the advanced mandate to 4 billion gallons, the minimum in the statute 2. Reductions below 4 billion gallons will require application of inadequate domestic supply general waiver authority and/or special biomass-based diesel waiver authority 3. The basic issue is that reductions in the advanced mandate are inconsistent with the fundamental technology forcing intent of the RFS 4. Reductions to advanced mandate will have to be justified based on very strong arguments and evidence in light of the primary RFS purpose of forcing increasing consumption of renewable fuel 5. Expect a court challenge with odds favoring another EPA loss

24 U.S. Appeals Court in Americans for Clean Energy By requiring upstream market participants such as refiners and importers to introduce increasing volumes of renewable fuel into the transportation fuel supply, Congress intended the Renewable Fuel Program to be a market forcing policy that would create demand pressure to increase consumption of renewable fuel. (pp )

25 Scope for Waiving Mandates Beyond Cellulosic Waiver has Narrowed Coppess, J. Upon Further Review: the Decision on EPA s RFS Waiver Authority. farmdoc daily (7):151, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 18,

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27 Likelihood of Implementation Medium: Change in criteria for invoking general waiver authority due to severe economic or environmental harm to state, region or United States 1. Severe is a high threshold of economic harm 2. Applies to state, region, or nation not individual firms or an industry 3. Previous EPA denials of petitions establishes strong precedent 4. Passthrough. Passthrough. Passthrough. 5. As much evidence that RFS benefits U.S. economy as there is that RFS harms it

28 The welfare gain to the United States that can be imputed to the RFS, in 2015, is estimated to be about $2.6 billion. Virtually all of these U.S. welfare gains are due to the impact of RFS policies on the terms of trade /The-Renewable-Fuel-Standard-in-Competitive

29 Likelihood of Implementation Medium: Change in criteria for invoking general waiver authority due to severe economic or environmental harm to state, region or United States 1. Severe is a high threshold of economic harm 2. Applies to state, region, or nation not individual firms or an industry 3. Previous EPA denials of petitions establishes strong precedent 4. Passthrough. Passthrough. Passthrough. 5. As much evidence that RFS benefits U.S. economy as there is that RFS harms it 6. Expect a court challenge with the odds strongly favoring an EPA loss

30 Likelihood of Implementation Low: Change policy of requiring RINs for biofuel exports to be retired (rumor) 1. Statute is very clear that the RFS is a domestic blend mandate 2. No explicit requirement in statute to retire RINs for exported biofuels but this is a very logical implication of #1 3. Never sees the light of day, or if implemented, expect a court challenge with a quick reversal

31 Looking Ahead

32 Projected Implementation of U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard Conventional and Advanced Mandates, Conventional Advanced Billion Ethanol Equivalent Gallons Year

33 Projected Total Biomass-Based Diesel Requirement for U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard Mandates, Billion Physical Gallons Biomass-Based Diesel Mandate Conventional Gap Advanced Gap Year

34 5.00 Estimated U.S. Biomass-Based Diesel Annual Supply Curves without Import Restrictions Imports 4.00 Domestic Biodiesel Price ($/gallon) Total Biodiesel Quantity (billion gallons)

35 Estimated Annual Equilibrium Price of U.S. Biomass-Based Diesel with and without Import Restrictions, 3.0 Billion Gallon RFS Requirement Total Supply w/ Restrictions Biodiesel Price ($/gallon) $3.43 $3.28 Total Supply w/out Restrictions Biodiesel Quantity (billion gallons)

36 Estimated Annual Equilibrium Price of U.S. Biomass-Based Diesel with Import Restrictions, 2.7 and 3.0 Billion Gallon RFS Requirements Total Supply w/ Restrictions Biodiesel Price ($/gallon) $3.43 $3.35 $3.28 Total Supply w/out Restrictions Biodiesel Quantity (billion gallons)

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39 Weekly (Thursday) Predicted and Actual D4 Biodiesel RINs Price, 01/25/ /22/2017 Actual D4 Margin or Price ($/gal.) Predicted D4 Date

40 References Irwin, S. "The Value of Soybean Oil in the Soybean Crush: Further Evidence on the Impact of the U.S. Biodiesel Boom." farmdoc daily (7):169, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, September 14, Irwin, S. and D. Good. "The Relationship between Biodiesel and Soybean Oil Prices." farmdoc daily (7):164, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, September 7, Irwin, S. and D. Good. "Projecting Biodiesel RINs Prices under Different Policies." farmdoc daily (7):159, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, August 30, Irwin, S. and D. Good. "How to Think About Biodiesel RINs Prices under Different Policies." farmdoc daily (7):154, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, August 23, Irwin, S and D. Good. "Biomass-Based Biodiesel Prices--How Much Does Policy Matter?" farmdoc daily (7):149, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, August 16, Irwin, S. and D. Good. "EPA Interpretation of the "Inadequate Domestic Supply" Waiver for Renewable Fuels Ruled Invalid: Where to from Here?" farmdoc daily (7):144, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 9, Irwin, S and D. Good. "Revisiting the Estimation of Biomass-Based Diesel Supply Curves." farmdoc daily (7):135, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, July 26, Irwin, S and D. Good. "Filling the Gaps in the Renewable Fuels Standard with Biodiesel." farmdoc daily (7):130, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, July 19, 2017.

41 Where You Can Find Me Website: LinkedIn: Google Scholar: Scott H. Irwin

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