UPM Half Year Financial Report Jussi Pesonen President and CEO 24 July 2018
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1 UPM Half Year Financial Report 218 Jussi Pesonen President and CEO 24 July 218
2 Q2 218: Commercial success drives growth in sales and earnings strong outlook for H2 218 Sales grew by 5% to EUR 2,589m (2,464m in Q2 217) Comparable EBIT increased by 24% to EUR 334m (27m) EURm Comparable EBIT Sales margins improved, as prices increased in all business areas, outweighing the impact of higher input costs Q2 performance was held back by several significant scheduled maintenance shutdowns Operating cash flow was EUR 329m (269m) UPM The Biofore Company
3 Q2 218: Sales prices increased in all business areas, outweighing the impact of higher input costs UPM BIOREFINING Good market demand. Pulp deliveries -8%, production impacted by scheduled maintenance shutdowns Kaukas pulp mill expansion completed Pulp prices significantly higher UPM COMMUNICATION PAPERS Tight market, deliveries -3% Price increases more than offset the variable costs increases UPM SPECIALTY PAPERS Good demand, deliveries -3% Price increases offset part of the variable costs increases Two new focused growth projects announced UPM RAFLATAC Good demand, deliveries -2% Price increases more than offset input costs increases UPM ENERGY Electricity deliveries +15% Higher electricity market prices Power generation impacted by maintenance shutdown at the Olkiluoto power plant UPM PLYWOOD Good demand, deliveries -4% Price increases more than offset the variable costs increases 3 UPM The Biofore Company
4 Comparable EBIT by business area EURm 2 UPM Biorefining % of sales 3 EURm 12 UPM Energy % of sales 6 EURm 12 UPM Communication Papers % of sales EURm 5 UPM Specialty Papers % of sales EURm UPM Raflatac % of sales 12,5 5 12,5 EURm 25 UPM Plywood % of sales ,5 3 7, ,5 1 2, UPM The Biofore Company
5 Comparable EBIT in Q2 218 vs. Q2 217 Increased prices in all businesses, higher input costs Fixed costs higher and production lower mainly due to several scheduled maintenance shutdowns Improvement in Biorefining, Energy, Raflatac, Communication Papers and Plywood EURm 6 EURm % Prices Deliveries Fixed costs Variable costs Currency, net impact Depr., forests, plantations % % Biorefining Energy Raflatac Communication Papers Specialty Papers Plywood Other operations and eliminations % 1 1 Q2/17 Q2/18 Q2/17 Q2/18 5 UPM The Biofore Company
6 Q2 218 included several significant scheduled maintenance shutdowns Timing Q2 17 Q4 17 Significant maintenance shutdowns in 217 and 218 Unit Pietarsaari pulp mill Olkiluoto nuclear power plant Kymi pulp mill Maintenance shutdowns have an impact on Maintenance costs Production volumes Operational efficiency Q2 18 Q4 18 Fray Bentos pulp mill Kaukas pulp mill Lappeenranta biorefinery turnaround Olkiluoto nuclear power plant Pietarsaari pulp mill Q2 218 total impact on operating profit was EUR -6m compared with Q2 217 EUR -9m compared with Q UPM The Biofore Company
7 Strong cash flow and balance sheet EURm 1 8 Operating cash flow Net debt EURm 3 5 Net debt Net debt / EBITDA (trailing12 months) 3, Free cash flow LTM 7 UPM The Biofore Company Operating cash flow 1,43 Q2/18 operating cash flow EUR 329m Working capital increased by EUR 2m , 2,5 Net debt / EBITDA 2, 1,5 1, Net debt 41,5.23, Q2/18 LTM
8 Outlook for 218 UPM s comparable EBIT is expected to continue growing in 218 compared with 217. H2 218 comparable EBIT is expected to be significantly higher compared with H The fundamentals for UPM businesses in 218 are favourable. Sales price increases in 218 are expected to outweigh the increase in variable cost, compared with 217. H1 218 results were impacted by four significant maintenance shutdows and weather-related wood harvesting limitations. H2 218 is scheduled to have one significant maintenance shutdown. 8 UPM The Biofore Company
9 Focused growth projects to develop market position while maintaining and growing earnings Completed Raflatac expansion in Q4 217, Poland Kymi pulp mill expansion +17kt in Q4 217, Finland Kaukas pulp mill expansion +3kt in Q2 218, Finland Construction stage Raflatac speciality label expansion in Q4 218, Finland Chudovo plywood mill expansion +45k m 3 in Q3 219, Russia Jämsänkoski release liner expansion +4kt in Q4 218, Finland Nordland PM2 conversion to release liner +11kt in Q4 219, Germany Changshu release liner expansion +4kt in Q1 22, China 9 UPM The Biofore Company
10 Transformative prospects with unique and exciting opportunities for significant long-term earnings growth Possible new 2mt pulp mill, Uruguay Second preparation phase: The permitting processes for the mill, rail and port, as well as rail tendering are proceeding as agreed. Molecular bioproducts, possible biorefineries Basic engineering work regarding a potential 15kt biochemicals refinery, Germany Exploring next steps in biofuels, environmental impact study for a potential 5kt biorefinery, Finland 1 UPM The Biofore Company
11 Spearheads for growth Specialty packaging materials High value fibre Molecular bioproducts Raflatac Specialty papers Forests Pulp Biofuels Biochemicals Communication papers Plywood Energy 11 UPM The Biofore Company
12 Inspired by the limitless opportunities of bioeconomy Delivering renewable and responsible solutions Innovating for a future beyond fossils 12 UPM The Biofore Company
13 Summary Commercial success drove 5% growth in Q2 sales, 24% growth in comparable EBIT Strong outlook for H2 218: comparable EBIT is expected to be significantly higher compared with H1 218 Focused growth projects enable us to develop our market position while maintaining and growing our earnings Transformative prospects provide us with unique and exciting opportunities for significant long-term earnings growth 13 UPM The Biofore Company
14
15 We create value by seizing the limitless potential of bioeconomy Sustainable and safe solutions for global consumer demand Innovation Responsible operations and value chain Circular economy High performing people 15 UPM The Biofore Company Sustainable forestry
16 Second preparation phase for the potential new pulp mill in Uruguay proceeding Phase I Completed in Q4/17 Phase II Expected to take years Phase III Discussions with the Government of Uruguay Prerequisites for a possible pulp mill investment Investment agreement signed in Q4/17 Permitting Pre-engineering Development of infrastructure Necessary conditions Potential UPM investment decision Investment project Development of infrastructure Main items in preparation phase II: Mill permitting, pre-engineering Rail permitting, tendering, start construction Port permitting, tendering, concession Roads Labour protocols, regulation Investment regimes Regional planning and development Energy and complementary items 16 UPM The Biofore Company
17 Group financial performance EURm 1 6 Comparable EBIT % Comparable ROE 14 Net debt EURm 4 5 Net debt and leverage Net debt/ EBITDA (x) 3, Target: EBIT growth Target: 1% Policy: 2x 2,5 2, , , , LTM Comparable figures for , excluding special items for earlier years 17 UPM The Biofore Company LTM Q2/18 LTM,
18 Business area long-term return targets apply over investment and business cycles UPM Energy ROCE % * ) UPM Biorefining ROCE % UPM Specialty Papers 3 ROCE % UPM Communication Papers 3 3 FCF/ CE % UPM Plywood ROCE % UPM Raflatac ROCE % * ) shareholdings in UPM Energy valued at fair value 18 UPM The Biofore Company Long-term return target
19 Low investment needs in existing assets allow growth projects with modest total capex EURm 1 2 Capital expenditure Estimate 1 8 Myllykoski acquisition 6 Uruguay acquisition Depreciation 4 Strategic investments Operational investments E 19 UPM The Biofore Company
20 5-year cumulative cash flow ( ) disciplined capital allocation in action Strong operating cash flow EUR 6.4bn Focused investments EUR 1.9bn Deleveraging EUR 2.6bn Attractive dividend EUR 1.9bn Industry-leading balance sheet Net debt /EBITDA ~ x 2 UPM The Biofore Company
21 Illustrative capital allocation *) for next 5 years, assuming the Uruguay pulp mill investment Performance focus Strong cash flow Attractive dividend EUR ~3 4bn Industry-leading balance sheet High return investments EUR ~3 4bn Net debt /EBITDA < 2x Maintain headroom *) This is not a forecast 21 UPM The Biofore Company
22 UPM s main currency exposures Key currency exposures USD, GBP and JPY Policy to hedge an average of 5% of the estimated net currency cash flow for the next 12 months Estimated annual foreign currency net cash flow, before hedging USD GBP JPY Others EURm UPM The Biofore Company
23 Maturity profile and liquidity Liquidity Liquidity on 3 June 218 was EUR.9bn (cash and unused credit facilities) Committed credit facilities bilateral committed credit facilities EUR 522 million for general financing purposes EUR million 8 Maturity profile of outstanding debt EUR million 8 Committed credit facilities maturities UPM The Biofore Company
24 UPM Biorefining Chemical pulp market prices EUR/tonne 11 Pulp market prices, EUR USD/tonne 13 Pulp market prices, USD BHKP, Europe, EUR BHKP, China, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR NBSK, China, EUR BHKP, Europe BHKP, China NBSK, Europe NBSK, China Sources: FOEX Indexes Ltd, ECB 24 UPM The Biofore Company
25 UPM Energy Cost efficient generation enables robust profitability in challenging market environment MWh Market electricity prices vs UPM sales price Helsinki Front Year System Front Year UPM average sales price UPM Energy profitability Comparable EBIT, EURm H1/ % of sales UPM The Biofore Company
26 UPM Communication Papers Graphic paper prices EUR/t 1 Europe USD/t 11 North America USD/t 13 China News SC LWC WFC WFU News SC LWC WFC WFU WFC r (1% chemical pulp) Uncoated Woodfree Reels (1% chemical pulp) Sources: PPI, RISI 26 UPM The Biofore Company
27 UPM Communication Papers Paper price vs. cash cost of marginal cost producer EUR/t Price Cash cost of a marginal producer UPM The Biofore Company Sources: PPI, RISI, Pöyry
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