Slide 1 HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL

Transcription

1 Slide 1 HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL

2 Slide 2 US 220,405 Class 8 truck sales Most manufacturers post double digit growth Daimler s Western Star led all gainers, surging 88.2% Class 8 Truck Sales 0 U.S. - best sales numbers in 8 years

3 Slide 3 Viscosity grade trend forecasts in the North American HDD market 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Today 2017 Forecast 2021 Forecast SAE 15W-40 SAE 10W-30 SAE 10W-30L SAE 5W-40 SAE 5W-30 Monogrades Other Enhanced Fuel Economy Viscosity grade trends will be influenced by fuel prices

4 Slide 4 North American lubes market flat Drivers for advanced lubricants Fuel economy Wear protection Extended drain API CI-4 3% Monograde 5% Below API CI-4 3% API CI-4 PLUS 10% API CJ-4 79%

5 Slide 5 First allowable use projected to be December 1, 2016 EMA desire a 4 th Qtr launch Many factors affecting delivery timing Number of base stocks the market will require? Sufficient T-13 capacity if no Base Oil Interchange? Will current industry tests be back to running reliably?

6 Slide 6 Greg Shank Volvo Group Trucks Technology Coordinator for Fluids Technology, North America

7 Slide 7 Test Progress Mack T-13 and Caterpillar engine Oil Aeration Test (COAT) precision and BOI matrices completed T-13 only oxidation engine test in PC hours long and very expensive test Potentially limited base oil interchange DD13 Scuff Test Not ready to meet PC-11 timing May become part of future Detroit Diesel and possibly Mercedes specifications Development continues Image copyright Detroit: Detroit DD13

8 Slide 8 Greg Shank Volvo Group Trucks Technology Coordinator for Fluids Technology, North America

9 Slide 9 PC-11B / API FA-4 Robust CJ-4 at lower viscosity PC-11A / API CK-4 Some OEM s will opt out Backward serviceability uncertain More Robust API CJ-4 Recommended by all OEMs SAE XW-30 Fully backward compatible HTHSV: mpa-s PC-11, New ACEA? SAE XW-30 and Heavier HTHSV > 3.5 mpa-s PC-11 API CJ-4, ACEA PC-11B has the same durability requirements as PC-11A to minimize risks associated with the new fuel economy grades

10 Slide 10 Greg Shank Volvo Group Trucks Technology Coordinator for Fluids Technology, North America Bryan Faria Phillips 66 Finished Lubricants Global Leader

11 Slide 11 Consensus achieved on category naming PC-11A will become API CK-4 PC-11B will become API FA-4 Still debate on how to distinguish between PC-11A and PC-11B SAE 10W-30s L or H suffix? New symbol must be clear to help end users Significant end user education required PC-11B is not expected to be back serviceable How do end users manage the different specifications and viscosity grade recommendations?

12 Slide 12 Selda Gunsel Shell Vice President of Global Commercial Technology Jose Gutierrez Infineum USA L.P. Portfolio Manager, HDD & GEO

13 Slide 13 Jose Gutierrez Infineum USA L.P. Portfolio Manager, HDD & GEO Dan Nyman Cummins Inc. Technical Advisor for the Fuels and Lubricants Group

14 Slide 14 Industry currently debating Universal Oils Most OEMs do not see Universal Oils as drivers for Heavy-Duty lubricants Must also provide protection for off-road and Class 2 to 7 diesel vehicles Commercial outcome unknown

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16 Slide 16 Main driver for the next ACEA update is biofuel compatibility OM646 biodiesel compatibility test expected to feature in all E-Categories L-109 biodiesel oxidation test to be added E9 category changes Mack T-11 replaced by Mack T-8E Release timing driven by the light-duty specifications, around YE 2015

17 Slide 17 Hardware initiatives Improved aerodynamics and light weighing Engine downspeeding but with high torque Powertrain management and route information Waste heat recovery Automated transmissions Electrification of auxiliary systems Supertruck achieves 10.7mpg in real-world conditions 43% reduction in GHG emissions 75% increase in fuel economy

18 Slide 18 Dan Nyman Cummins Inc. Technical Advisor for the Fuels and Lubricants Group

19 Slide 19 Alternative Fuels Gas is clean, abundant and economical Patchy infrastructure and long ROI hinder mobile gas growth >3 million HDD gas vehicles expected by 2020 Future success depends on Price of gas vs diesel Price tag of the vehicles Further investment in infrastructure Continued government support

20 Source: Navigant Research Slide 20 Fuel CNG LNG LPG DME Challenges Compression to 3,600 psi (250 bar) = longer filling times Chilling to -160 C means tanks slowly vent methane into the atmosphere when the engine is not in use More costly than LNG and CNG Still in development

21 Slide 21 Dan Nyman Cummins Inc. Technical Advisor for the Fuels and Lubricants Group Allison Athey Volvo Group Trucks Technology Senior Fluids Infiltration Engineer

22 Slide 22 Dan Nyman Cummins Inc. Technical Advisor for the Fuels and Lubricants Group

23 Slide 23 PC-11 development reaching critical time Timing for PC-11 is December 1, 2016 although many factors still affect timing Complexities introduced with PC-11A and PC-11B Alternative fuels growth has slowed recently New Advanced Heavy-Duty Lubricants, making a difference in a complex world