The Third IMO GHG Study 2014

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1 The Third IMO GHG Study Dr. Haakon Lindstad Norsk Marinteknisk Forskningsinstitutt

2 The three IMO GHG studies The first IMO GHG Study (Skjølsvik et al., 2000) estimated that ships engaged in international trade in 1996 contributed about 1.8% of the world total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The Second IMO GHG Study 2009 (Buhaug et al., 2009), estimated that ships engaged in international trade emitted 2.7% of the world anthropogenic CO 2 emissions in When including domestics trades the total added up to emitted 1046 million tons of, representing 3.3% of the world s global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. These emissions are assumed to increase by 150% 250% in 2050 if no action is taken, i.e. business as usual scenarios (BAU) with a tripling of world trade. the Third IMO 2014 GHG study (Smith et al. 2014) and the updated figures indicate that shipping in 2012 emitted 950 million ton of CO 2, 2.7 % which is a reduction compared to the previous study, however the predictions of emission increase up to 2050 is of the same magnitude as the IMO 2009 GHG study.

3 Shipping represents a significant share of the global anthropogenic emissions Measured by weight million ton CO (2007) 950 (2012) NOx 25 (2007) 19 (2012) SO 2 15 (2007) 11 (2012) Measured by % of total NOx 12.5% (2007) 15% (2012) SO 2 7% (2007) 13% (2012) CO 2 3.3% (2007) 2.7%(2012) Sources - IMO 2009 GHG study: and IMO 2014 GHG study 3

4 International shipping CO 2 emission scenarios until 2050 [Source: IMO 2009] Growth figures according to IPCC scenarios Gap between emission scenarios and 450 ppm target 350 % 300 % 250 % Annual CO2 emissions with business as usual Annual CO2 emissions with 450 ppm CO2 emission versus transport work to reach 450 ppm target 200 % 150 % 100 % 50 % 0 %

5 Global fleet (IMO 2014 & IMO 2009 GHG Study) Vessel type Number of vessels 2007 Number of vessels 2012 Average vessel size in dwt 2007 Average vessel size in dwt 2012 Design Speed 2007 Design Speed 2012 Average Speed 2007 Average Speed 2012 CO IMO 2009 GHG- Study CO CO Change in CO ton ton knots knots knots knots ton ton ton % Dry Bulk % General Cargo % Container Reefer % RoRo & Vehicle OilTanker-mainly crude > 80' dwt % OilTankers-mainly product < 80'dwt % Chemicals % LNG & LPG % RoPax % Totals Cargo Vessels % Ferry-Pax only % Cruise % Yacht % Offshore % Service % Fishing % Other % Totals Other Vessels % Totals All Vessels %

6 Development from (IMO GHG ) Average vessel size has increased from dwt dwt Cargo Vessel fleet increased from to vessels Cargo carrying capacity has increased by 50 % expressed by increased in total dwt Largest cargo capacity increase for dry bulkers with 80 % Average operational speed for cargo carrying vessels reduced from 12 to 11.1 knots (Cargo Carrying vessels emits 80 % of all CO 2 unchanged )

7 Fleet and Freight projections up to 2030 study for DG CLIMA ( ): TNO ISL MARINTEK

8 Key fleet and operational drivers Own analysis to understand the IMO 2014 GHG study Vessel type Average vessel size in dwt 2007 Average vessel size in dwt 2012 Freight work 2007 Freight work 2012 Share of freight work 2007 Share of freight work 2012 DWT Capacity Increase at equal speeds Emission change due to reduced sea speeds Emission change due to larger vessels Emission Change due to change in market shares CO2 - per ton nm 2007 CO2 - per ton nm 2012 Change in CO2 per ton nm Change in CO2 if operated at design speed gram CO2 per ton billion ton nm ton nm Dry Bulk % 42% 81% -12% -8.5% % 1% General Cargo % 5% 2% -14% -4.6% % 2% Container % 19% 42% -20% -6.3% % 3% Reefer % 0.5% -6% -32% -1.8% % -2% RoRo % 1% 13% 0% -1.8% % -2% OilTanker-mainly crude > 80' dwt % 21% 32% -26% -1.3% % 1% OilTankers-mainly product < 80'dwt % 4% 36% -21% -9.7% % -9% (1) Chemicals % 5% 45% -15% -4.2% % -1% LNG & LPG % 3% 43% -3% -6.2% % 3% RoPax % 0.3% 18% -40% -4.3% % -18% (2) Totals Cargo Vessels % 100% 50% -16% -5.5% -4.5% % (1) 35 % increase in size (2) 25 % decrease of average speed

9 Development of average vessel size Vessel type Average vessel size in dwt Increase Dry Bulk % General Cargo % Container % Reefer % RoRo & Vehicle % Oil Tanker -above 80'dwt mainly crude % Oil Tankers -bellow 80'dwt mainly product % Chemicals % LNG & LPG % RoPax % Cargo Vessels %

10 Average Power as % of MCR at sea 2012 Vessel type Average vessel size in dwt 2007 Average vessel size in dwt 2012 Design Speed 2012 Average Speed 2012 Average Power ton ton knots knots Dry Bulk % General Cargo % Container % Reefer % RoRo % OilTanker-mainly crude > 80' dwt % OilTankers-mainly product < 80'dwt % Chemicals % LNG & LPG % RoPax % Totals Cargo Vessels %

11 Telecommunication, trade liberalization and international standardization, transport and maritime transport in particular drives the globalization of the World. (Source of table : Lindstad and Eskeland, 2015)

12 Fleet, freight work & emissions BAU Vessel type Average vessel size in dwt Freight work Emissions E E E Dry Bulk General Cargo Container Reefer RoRo & Vehicle Oil Tanker -above 80'dwt mainly crude Oil Tankers -bellow 80'dwt mainly product Chemicals LNG & LPG RoPax Cargo Vessels

13 Development of total fleet Vessel type Vessel size in dwt Number of vessels Freight work E E 2015E 2030E Dry Bulk General Cargo Container Reefer RoRo & Vehicle Oil Tanker -above 80'dwt mainly crude Oil Tankers -bellow 80'dwt mainly product Chemicals LNG & LPG RoPax Average Cargo Vessels Ferry-Pax only Cruise Yacht Offshore Service Fishing Other Average Other Vessels All Vessels

14

15 Emission estimate Total CO 2 emissions 2012 : 949 million ton Total CO 2 emissions 2030 BAU : million ton Effect of Larger vessels : million ton Effect of EEDI : million ton Effect of LNG addjsuted for LNG slip: - 13 million ton = Baseline 2030 emissions : million ton

16 Sea-transport is the most energy efficient transport mode however not always and rail and road is quite emission competitive against vessels bellow dwt Gram CO2 per ton km range per vessel type LPG LNG RoRo Chemical tankers Product tankers Crude oil Container Reefer Dry Bulk General Cargo Inland w aterw ays Road transport Rail Gram CO2 per ton km Weighted Average

17 Improving small to medium sized vessels or employing larger vessels gives the largest emission reductions

18 Feasibility studies with focus on: reducing fuel per ton nm; emissions; and climate impact

19 Reducing emissions and Satisfying environmental regulations and requirements at lowest possible abatement cost. Reduce required power per ton transported More slender and energy efficient hull forms & designs. Weather routing combined with advanced route planning and continuous scheduling Increasing propeller efficiency in moderate to high sea states Larger vessels Improve specific fuel consumption Flexible power and propulsion setups with which enables vessel to produce power most efficiently in the % MCR range. Hybrid technologies in combination with engine monitoring and control systems which enables peak shaving, additional power when required and full electric idle at berth Alternative engine setups which enables fulfilment of NECA requirements with-out scarifying efficiency in the rest of the world Minimize the increase in annual capex, opex and fuel cost due to ECA regulations Investigate alternative technology and fuel options with focus on cost minimizing. Selection of abatement methods as a function of trading area and operational pattern. Develop solutions where shipping contributes to climate cooling by continued use of heavy fuels at sea if that is a beneficial measure for climate change mitigation (climate cooling) Dirty fuels and NOx maximization at high sea Clean fuels and combustion technologies close to land

20 Emission and Fuel Reduction for Offshore Support Vessels through Hybrid Technology SNAME Convention 2014 ( Haakon Lindstad, Inge Sandaas) Traditionally offshore support vessels have been designed to ensure that they can perform their duties at nearly any sea state. This has been achieved through multiple engines and advanced dynamic positioning systems. This in combination with high safety standards set by the oil companies has resulted in a general operational pattern with vessels running multiple engines at low to medium loads to be prepared for unexpected incidents to happen at any time. 20

21 Standard engine setup versus a hybrid option

22 Annual Operational profile and Emissions as function of power outake Annual operational profile

23 The climate effects from shipping arise from CO 2 including CO which has a warming effect CH 4 which has a warming effect BC which has a warming effect N 2 O which has a warming effect NO x, which results in the production of tropospheric O 3 (positive RF) and a reduction of ambient CH 4, which has a cooling effect SOx (sulphate particles) which has a cooling effect OC which has a cooling effect Formation or change in low-level clouds which has a cooling effect

24 CO2 eq. emissions North Sea & Gulf of Mexico versus Arctic

25 Main Conclusions: This study compared to study by DNV- GL Annual Reductions: Fuel 5 % Emissions % Climate Impact CO2 eq. (GWI 20 ) North Sea: % Arctic : %

26 Maritime Shipping and Emissions: A three-layered, damage based approach Haakon Lindstad 1, Gunnar S. Eskeland 2 Harilaos Psaraftis 3 Inge Sandaas 4 Anders H. Strømman 5 1 Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute (MARINTEK), Trondheim, Norway 2 Norwegian School of Finance (NHH), Bergen, Norway 3 Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark 4 United European Car Carriers (UECC), Oslo, Norway 5 Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway ABSTRACT An important idea is to shift the policy emphasis in ship design from idealized towards realistic vessel operating conditions. The traditional approach to reducing shipping emissions, based on technical standards, tends to neglect how damages and abatement opportunities vary according to location and operative conditions. Since environmental policy originates in damages relating to ecosystems, and jurisdictions, a three-layered approach is natural ; in port, in coastal areas possibly defining an Emission Constraint Area (ECA as in North America or Nordic/Baltic), and open seas, globally. Corresponding author: Haakon@marintek.sintef.no

27 Challenges and Developments Sea transport freight work increases faster than GDP with historic ratios : : 1.16; : 0.92; :1.58; : IPCC 2013 IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways predicts a GDP growth of 4.3% up to 2030 With equal growth of GPD and sea transport Sea freight billion ton nm Average vessel size 20 02: dwt; 2012: ; dwt Emission increases with 110 % without increase in vessel size and 90 % including size increase Maritime fuels becomes more expensive Reduced Sulphure due to SECA in North Sea & Baltic and outside North American from 2015 Worldwide cap on Sulphure in fuel of 0.5 % from 2020 Might be delayed or changed due to uncertainties regarding climate benefits Increased complexity of New Maritime engines and power plants Reduced NOx from new-built vessels due to the NECA around North America from 2016 Local regulation and port dues favouring solutions which minize emissions and their impact rts Sea transport emission regulations might be more harmonized with land transport emissions

28 kg GWI 20 Impact per 1000 kwh as a function of power, fuel, and operational area

29 kg GWI 100 Impact per 1000 kwh as a function of power, fuel, and operational area

30 GWI impact Southern Baltic to US trade per ton transported

31 Key figures for the investigated options Operation Fuel Region Tier Hybrid Standard 2.7% &0.1% 0.5% &0.1% LNG 2.70% 2.7% &0.1% 0.5% &0.1% LNG GWI 20 per ton transported Annual kg CO 2 eq. Fuel in ton per voyage Annual fuel cost 2015 Cost Increase Cost saving Hybrid 2015 Fuel price Cost saving Hybrid Fuel price Atlantic Tier ECA Tire Atlantic Tire ECA Tier Atlantic Tier ECA Tier Atlantic None 156 ECA None Atlantic Tier ECA Tier Atlantic Tier ECA Tier Atlantic Tier ECA Tier

32 It might be that it will be more benefical with the following IMO legislation. 1. Batteries or cold ironing in ports 2. Clean fuels close to land or when extra power is required for loading and discharging 3. Continued use of heavy fuel oil at deep sea and maybe as closer to land than the current ECA zones 4. Solutions where NOx is rather maximized than minimized at sea and only minimized close to land and in ports 5. Strict regulation of Black carbon in Artic areas and close to glaciers 6. If requirements is not met, the vessel can still be used, but at a financial penelatity, like in avivation 7. Though monitoring schemes for those which wants to use HFO at high seas

33 Vessel slenderness Traditionally focus has been on maximizing the cargocarrying capability at the lowest possible building cost Shoebox-shaped vessels with short bow and aft ship sections Poor hydrodynamic lines and high resistance even at calm sea. At rough sea, these designs perform even worse. More recently, high fuel prices and increased environmental concerns have challenged this practice. The Block coefficient is defined as C B = L B T where is the displaced volume, L is length, B is beam and T is draught 33

34 Example of Block coeffisients Dead weight - Dwt Length - lpp Beam Block coeficient Service speed Engine size RoRo deep sea large car carrier Cont TEU Cont TEU RoRo deep sea large & heavy cargo LPG dwt LNG dwt General Cargo dwt Dry Bulk Capesize - Newcastle Crude oil dwt Products-chemical tanker Panamax Crude Panamax Dry Bulk Panamax

35 Cost as a function of slenderness and economies of scale

36 Comparing alternative Panamax designs and a standard Supramax

37 Fuel and TCE as a function of size and slenderness

38 EEDI over-performance

39 Ranking of the Panamax vessels which has been assessed m x 41.9m x 14.5m; dwt; block m x 32.3m x 14.5m; dwt; block m x 32.3m x 14.5m; dwt; block 0.65 (Supramax capacity, but much lower cost per ton transported) m x 32.3m x 14.5m, dwt; block 0.87 ( If fuel price is reduced from 600 to 300 USD per ton or less it outcompetes design 2 and 3, but not the first)

40 The best of the designs % less power to be seaworthy

41 Reduce fuel consumption per ton transported: Slenderness and Economies of scale reduces both cost, fuel consumption and emissions, however EOS gives no EEDI benefit

42 Combining economies of scale and speed in the container market

43 43 Vessel type Freight work CO 2 emissions 2050 IPCC B1 scenario and equal growth all vessel types 2050 BAU with Economie s of scale Shipping at lower More slender Weathe r Integrated air&sea 2007 fleet fleet speeds designs routing policies Billion ton Million ton CO 2 nm Dry bulk General cargo Reefer Container RoRo Crude oil Oil products Chemicals LNG LPG Sea River Totals Gram CO 2 per ton nm Emission reduction per 26% 52% 18% 7% 12% measure Total reduction verus BAU 26% 64% 71% 73% 76%

44 Reducing emissions and Satisfying environmental regulations and requirements at lowest possible abatement cost. Reduce required power per ton transported More slender and energy efficient hull forms & designs. Weather routing combined with advanced route planning and continuous scheduling Increasing propeller efficiency in moderate to high sea states Larger vessels Improve specific fuel consumption Flexible power and propulsion setups with which enables vessel to produce power most efficiently in the % MCR range. Hybrid technologies in combination with engine monitoring and control systems which enables peak shaving, additional power when required and full electric idle at berth Alternative engine setups which enables fulfilment of NECA requirements with-out scarifying efficiency in the rest of the world Minimize the increase in annual capex, opex and fuel cost due to ECA regulations Investigate alternative technology and fuel options with focus on cost minimizing. Selection of abatement methods as a function of trading area and operational pattern. Develop solutions where shipping contributes to climate cooling by continued use of heavy fuels at sea if that is a beneficial measure for climate change mitigation (climate cooling) Dirty fuels and NOx maximization at high sea Clean fuels and combustion technologies close to land

45 Thank you! Norsk Marinteknisk Forskningsinstitutt

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