Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Community Patent (EU Patent)

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1 Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management (SBS-EM) European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES) Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Community Patent (EU Patent) Jérôme Danguy and Bruno van Pottelsberghe 4 th Workshop on The Output of R&D activities: Harnessing the Power of Patents Data Seville, May 2012

2 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 2 A fragmented European patent system Filing at NPO 1 & Grant? Filing at NPO 2 & Grant? Filing at NPO 3 & Grant? Filing at EPO & Grant? EP NPO 1 NPO 2 NPO 3 NPO 4 Maintenance through national yearly renewal fees Filing at NPO 4 & Grant? Filing at NPO... & Grant? European Application Centralized... Validation at different NPO s Translation costs National Priority Filings Decentralized Enforcement Decentralized Complexity: multiple routes Costly: multiple (high) fees Uncertainty: multiple litigation

3 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 3 A fragmented European patent system Filing at NPO 1 & Grant? Filing at NPO 2 & Grant? EP NPO 1 NPO 2 NPO 3 NPO 4... Maintenance through national yearly renewal fees Enforcement Decentralized Filing at NPO 3 & Grant? Filing at NPO 4 & Grant? Filing at NPO... & Grant? National Priority Filings Decentralized Filing at EPO & Grant? European Application Centralized COMPAT Validation at different NPO s Translation costs English, French, German & machine translation Maintenance through COMPAT yearly renewal fees Enforcement Centralized Complexity: multiple routes Costly: multiple (high) fees Uncertainty: multiple litigation Need for a new unified route

4 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 4 Outline Objective: Understand the economic consequences of the COMPAT I. What would be the budgetary consequences in terms of renewal fees income for patent offices (EPO and NPOs)? Simulation of renewal fee Implications for patent offices II. III. What would be the implications for applicants in terms of absolute and relative? What would be the on other stakeholders, including translators, attorneys, lawyers and the business sector?

5 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 5 Simulation of renewal fees income Focus on renewal fees income generated by the COMPAT which depend on: the renewal fee structure the maintenance rate over time the distribution key Methodological approach: (1) Compute the total renewal fees income generated by a current average European patent in the 27 EU NPOs (2) Understand the factors that influence the maintenance rate of patents in national jurisdictions (3) Select an acceptable renewal fee structure for the COMPAT (4) Simulate the maintenance rate of the COMPAT (5) Compute the renewal fees income generated by the COMPAT Simulations performed at the patent level Assessing whether an average Community Patent would generate more or less revenue than a current average European patent over its entire life span.

6 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 6 (1) Total renewal fees income generated by a current European Patent Total renewal fees income generated by an average European patent in the national patent office of country i: 20 VVVV i = t=6 π i 1 δ ii F ii (1) Where: π i = the validation rate of EP in country i δ ii = the drop-out rate of EP in country i and year t F ii = the renewal fees in country i and year t Total for all EU (EPO+NPOs): 27 VVVV = i=1 VVVV i (2) Total renewal fees income for an average COMPAT: VVVV = 20 t=6 (1 δ CC ) F CC (3)

7 Validation/Maintenance rates of patents in selected countries 100% 90% 80% [P(validation)*(1-drop rate)] 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% USA Germany Japan Spain Belgium Finland 10% 0% Patent age Source: own calculation from data provided by the EPO and NPOs and trilateral statistical report COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 7

8 (2) Understand the determinants of the maintenance rate of patents Simple econometric model: 1 δ ii = C + β GGG i + θ NNNNNN i + γ III i + σ PPPPPP t + α F ii + ε ii Sample: EU 15 + JP + US Variable (1) (2) (3) Intercept *** *** (0.041) (0.038) (0.207) GDP ( '000 billion ) *** *** *** (0.008) (0.007) (0.007) Fees ('000 ) *** *** *** (0.028) (0.027) (0.026) Market attractiveness Renewal fees Age of membership *** *** *** (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Age of the patent *** *** (0.002) (0.002) Life cycle of technology Intellectual Property Index *** (0.044) Adjusted R-Square (%) Number of observations Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively; standard errors are in parentheses. COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 8

9 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 9 (3) Select an acceptable renewal fee structure for the COMPAT VCOM(200+) VCOM (300) VCOM(4) VCOM (200) VCOM(2) Patent age

10 (4) Simulate the maintenance rate of the COMPAT 100% 90% 80% Maintenance rate of a patent 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Japan VCOM(2) VCOM(200) Germany Worst VCOM(300) VCOM(200+) VCOM(4) Patent age COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 10

11 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 11 (5) Compute the total renewal fees income generated by the COMPAT Validation fee VNPO VCOM(2) VCOM(4) VCOM(200) VCOM(300) VCOM(200+) WORST(200+)

12 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 12 Implications for patent offices Alternative distribution keys: Distribution keys Actual distribution of NPOs renewal fees income Council proposal weighting scheme GDP weighting scheme R&D weighting scheme Population weighting scheme Assessment Unfair, large bias in favor of large countries, especially the largest (Germany) Complex, not easy to compute and to communicate, takes into account the linguistic specificities. Fair, easy to compute and communicate, favors countries with a high economic performance Fair, easy to compute and communicate, favors innovative countries Bias in favor of large countries, unrelated to innovative efforts, easy to compute.

13 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 13 Implications for patent offices with VCOM(200+) VNPO Level ( ) Relative net differences (%) Proposed GDP Pop. R&D Proposed GDP Pop. R&D EPO Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands Austria Italy Spain Sweden Denmark Belgium Ireland Finland Portugal Greece Luxembourg Hungary D D D D Cyprus D D D D Estonia D D D D Czech Republic D D D D Romania D D D D Slovakia D D D D Bulgaria D D D D Slovenia D D D D Lithuania D D D D Poland D D D D

14 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 14 International comparison of s Renewal fees (up to 10th) Translation costs Procedural costs Source: van Pottelsberghe and Mejer (2010) and own calculations for the COMPAT figures

15 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 15 International comparison of s per million capita Renewal fees (up to 10th) Translation costs Procedural costs Source: van Pottelsberghe and Mejer (2010) and own calculations for the COMPAT figures Decrease in relative prices increase in the demand for patents at EPO

16 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 16 Total impact by type of actors considering 50,000 patents (in millions) EPO NPOs Business Translators & sector Attorneys Lawyers FEES Renewal fees Designation fees EPO Validation fees NPOs POST-GRANT COSTS Translation costs * Intermediary costs* Unified European patent litigation system** Total Source: own calculations,* van Pottelsberghe & Mejer (2010) and ** Harhoff (2009)

17 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 17 I. What would be the budgetary consequences in terms of renewal fees income for patent offices (EPO and NPOs)? EPO and most NPOs would actually gain from the COMPAT if an appropriate fee schedule is adopted II. III. What would be the implications for applicants in terms of absolute and relative? Increase in absolute renewal fees BUT for a larger market of protection Decrease in relative Decrease in intermediary costs What would be the on other stakeholders, including translators, attorneys, lawyers and the business sector? Gain for the business sector and POs Loss for intermediary The COMPAT would not only have monetary consequences but it would also simplify the system and reduce the uncertainty to improve the attractiveness of European market for technology

18 Thank you Questions? 18

19 Back-up slides 19

20 Appendix Maintenance rates over the entire patent s lifetime 100% Maintenance rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Germany Spain Belgium Finland 20% 10% 0% Pending at the EPO Patent age COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 20

21 COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 21 Appendix Distribution keys Actual Proposed GDP Population R&D Germany 31.60% 26.30% 19.90% 16.60% 27.30% France 13.10% 11.00% 15.50% 12.80% 17.60% United Kingdom 11.60% 9.80% 16.40% 12.30% 15.80% Netherlands 8.00% 7.40% 4.60% 3.30% 4.30% Austria 6.70% 5.70% 2.20% 1.70% 2.90% Italy 8.60% 9.10% 12.70% 11.90% 7.80% Spain 5.40% 6.10% 8.40% 9.00% 5.50% Sweden 3.60% 3.50% 2.70% 1.80% 5.40% Denmark 2.60% 2.60% 1.90% 1.10% 2.50% Belgium 2.50% 2.70% 2.70% 2.10% 2.80% Ireland 1.40% 1.40% 1.50% 0.90% 1.10% Finland 1.30% 1.40% 1.40% 1.10% 2.70% Portugal 1.10% 1.70% 1.30% 2.10% 0.70% Greece 0.90% 1.50% 1.80% 2.30% 0.60% Luxembourg 0.50% 0.50% 0.30% 0.10% 0.30% Hungary 0.20% 0.90% 0.80% 2.00% 0.40% Cyprus 0.20% 0.60% 0.10% 0.20% 0.00% Estonia 0.10% 0.70% 0.10% 0.30% 0.10% Czech Republic 0.10% 0.80% 1.00% 2.10% 0.80% Romania 0.10% 1.20% 0.80% 4.40% 0.20% Slovakia 0.10% 0.70% 0.40% 1.10% 0.10% Bulgaria 0.10% 0.80% 0.20% 1.60% 0.10% Slovenia 0.10% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.20% Lithuania 0.00% 0.70% 0.20% 0.70% 0.10% Latvia 0.00% 0.60% 0.10% 0.50% 0.10% Poland 0.10% 1.60% 2.30% 7.70% 0.70% Malta 0.00% 0.50% 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%

22 Appendix Implications for patent offices with VCOM(200) VNPO Level ( ) Relative net differences (%) Proposed GDP Pop. R&D Proposed GDP Pop. R&D EPO Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands Austria Italy Spain Sweden Denmark Belgium Ireland Finland Portugal Greece Luxembourg Hungary Cyprus Estonia Czech Republic Romania Slovakia Bulgaria Slovenia Lithuania Poland COMPAT Danguy & van Pottelsberghe 22

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