A submission to European Commission, Secretariat-General, 1049 Brussels
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1 A submission to European Commission, Secretariat-General, 1049 Brussels Fuel Quality Vapour Pressure derogation Directive 98/70/EC Summary: Ireland is one of several member states classified as having low ambient summer temperatures under the EU Fuel Quality Directive and hence is entitled to request a waiver to utilise a vapour pressure of 70 kpa for blended and non-blended petrol to be sold during the summer months. The basis of the application is explained in detail in the following submission and is summarised as follows: Ireland, Finland and Latvia are the only Member States shown to be achieving the highest (best) status in respect of the risk to vegetation caused by ozone over their entire territory based on EEA Maps. Ireland is also well within the target of 25 days maximum in which 8 hour ozone levels exceed 120 µg/m3 for protection of human health; Ireland s benzene levels are currently well below (better than) the relevant air quality standards; Ireland s non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions are on a continuously reducing trajectory. Ireland is considered by the EEA to be broadly on track to meeting its National Emission Ceiling of 55,000 tonnes by This is being achieved with a summer vapour pressure specification of 70 kpa; Changing to a 60 kpa vapour pressure limit in summer would involve additional constraints on refining operations in Ireland and at UK refineries supplying Ireland. At Ireland s only oil refinery the change will require, inter alia, the removal of additional butanes and pentanes from the blend pool in summer. This is not technically achievable at the refinery in its current configuration. Ireland s only refinery supplies approximately 39% of national petrol demand. Importing the remaining 61% of Ireland s petrol needs at a 60 kpa specification (mainly sourced from UK refineries) would also result in extra refining costs on imported petrol. In total, it is estimated that the increased costs of supplying 60 kpa specification would be ~ 18 million per annum, equivalent to an abatement cost of 90,000 per tonne of VOC reduction (based on UKPIA research on increased refining costs in UK and the levels of annual VOC reductions- see Appendices). Ireland is already implementing a range of measures which will also reduce VOC emissions from the transport sector including the introduction in December 2009 of a carbon tax on transport fuels (estimated carbon tax on petrol alone is ~ 81 million per year at 15 per tonne CO 2 ), the active promotion of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and switching of the purchase and annual motor tax system from an engine size rating system to a CO 2 emissions rating system. It is considered that the retention of the present vapour pressure limit in Ireland (70 kpa) will not compromise air quality standards (in relation to VOC as precursors to ozone, or benzene levels). The standard of air quality in Ireland is one of the best in Europe and this is being achieved under the current vapour pressure regime using the 70 kpa limit for petrol in summer. The derogation sought would protect consumers in Ireland from an additional cost burden on transport fuels which are not justifiable on environmental or health grounds given the socio economic impact. Page 1 of 10
2 Section 1: Introduction In submitting an application for a derogation from the summertime vapour pressure limits stipulated in the Fuel Quality Directive (FQD - directive 2009/30/EC amending directive 98/70/EC) there is a range of information required by the Commission: Data on the petrol market in Ireland, its refining capacity and imports and exports of petrol to and from Ireland; Data on impacts of the derogation on stakeholders; Data to demonstrate that the derogation, if granted, will not have a detrimental impact either in terms of socio economic aspects or in terms of compromising air quality or national emissions. Section 2: Basis for Derogation Paragraph 3.5 of Directive: 3.5 Where Member States wish to apply either of the derogations provided for in paragraph 4, they shall notify the Commission and provide all relevant information. The Commission shall assess the desirability and duration of the derogation, taking account of both: (a) the avoidance of socioeconomic problems resulting from higher vapour pressure, including time-limited technical adaptation needs; and (b) the environmental or health consequences of the higher vapour pressure and, in particular, the impact on compliance with Community legislation on air quality, both in the Member State concerned and in other Member States. As Ireland is listed as one of the Member States having a low ambient summer temperature this application for a derogation is made under Article 3.4 and 3.5 of the FQD to permit the use, during the summer period, of petrol with a maximum vapour pressure of 70 kpa. As already stated this will simply maintain the current practice in Ireland. In setting out this application consideration has been given to the guidance note issued by the European Commission entitled Guidance Note on notifications of exemptions from vapour pressure requirements for petrol pursuant to Article 3(4) and (5) of Directive 98/70/EC relating to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels dated 20 th July The submission sets out the following information: The type or derogation sought and its duration (Section 3); The scale of the Irish petrol market presenting both current and projected annual sales of petrol to 2020 (Section 4); The socio economic impacts of changing to 60 kpa (Section 5); The technical and economic impacts on refining in Ireland and at UK refineries of scenarios at a 70kPa and 60kPa limit (Section 5); Details on the levels of compliance with air quality standards for ozone, benzene and projected compliance with the 2010 National Emission Ceiling for NMVOCs. (Section 6 and Appendices). Page 2 of 10
3 Section 3: Type and Duration of Derogation Sought In view of the following: the positive situation in Ireland with respect to the high level of compliance with EU air quality standards (ozone, benzene etc.); the projections (Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)) that Ireland is on course to meet the National Emissions Ceiling for NMVOC emissions in 2010 and; the likely expense and long investment cycle in refinery modifications required in refineries in Ireland (and the UK) which supply the market in Ireland (potentially 4-5 years including design, budget approvals, environmental permitting, construction and commissioning), Ireland is seeking a derogation to permit the continued use in Ireland of a 70 kpa specification for the vapour pressure of all petrol sold between 1 st June and 31 st August. This derogation will be applied to the entirety of the Member State (Ireland) and to all summer sales of petrol. Current Status Regarding Summer Vapour Pressures It is important for the Commission to note that 70 kpa is the vapour pressure limit currently used in Ireland and so its continuation as a summer vapour pressure standard is not likely per se to lead to any increase in emission levels of NM VOCs. It will not increase the frequency or severity of episodes in which ground level ozone concentrations exceed present EU limits or targets nor will it increase benzene emissions (Please see Appendices for further details). Granting the requested derogation will not have any negative impact on the current downward trends in both NMVOC and benzene emissions nor in the reductions in benzene levels in the atmosphere. The improvement in NMVOC emissions, including major reductions in VOC emissions from transport fuels, has been achieved even though there has been significant growth in car numbers in Ireland between 1990 and 2008 (~140% increase in private car numbers). Petrol sales have more than doubled between 1990 and 2008 but VOCs from transport fuels have declined progressively (See Figure 2 in Section 5). These reduction trends in emissions are discussed in more detail in Section 6 and further outlined in the Appendices document attached to this submission. We would also refer the Commission to the EPA Report on Air Quality for 2008 which presents the latest status in respect of all pollutants covered in EU Directives including ozone and benzene (this document can be accessed via the link: Page 3 of 10
4 Section 4: Current and Projected Market for Petrol in Ireland In this section we provide the market information required in accordance with the Commission s Guidance Note referred to above. Information Item # 1: The forecast quantity of petrol to be supplied to retail outlets in the Member State concerned as well as the proportion this represents of the Member State s total amount to be produced during the calendar year for which the derogation is sought. The derogation is sought in respect of all summer sales of petrol in Ireland as already indicated. In the following tables we provide the historic sales trends and projections of petrol sales out to Table 1: Historical Trends in Sales of Petrol in Ireland Year Billions Litres Petrol kt/year Sources: Volume sales data: Excise Statistics from the Revenue Commissioners website Conversion to kt/yr: Assumes average SG for petrol = In Table 2 we set out the Government s current estimates of future petrol demand to 2020 together with data on the sources of supply i.e. domestically produced or imported petrol. Table 2: Projected Petrol Sales and National Production to 2020 Year Petrol Sales in Ireland (kt/yr) Petrol Production in Ireland (finished gasoline) (kt/yr) Imports to Ireland (kt/yr) Estimated Imports from UK (90% of imports) (kt/yr) Estimates of sales of summer grade 33% of annual sales (kt/yr) Sources: Petrol Sales: SEAI Policy Scenario 2009 Petrol Production: IPIA Conversion: 1.0 tonne petrol = toe (SEAI 2007 Report Energy in Ireland ) The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) is responsible for the promotion of sustainable energy generation and use in Ireland. Working with economic agencies such as the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), SEAI is responsible for producing energy statistics for Ireland including energy forecasts to Page 4 of 10
5 The above projections take into account the recent economic downturn and likely economic performance out to The projections take account of the many Government and private sector measures which are aimed at achieving greenhouse gas emission reductions, meeting renewable energy targets, developing transport infrastructure and the anticipated improvements in vehicle performance. A more detailed discussion on the SEAI methodology and extracts from the SEAI projections report are set out in the Appendices document. Information Item # 2: The forecast quantity of petrol to be supplied to retail outlets in the Member State concerned for which a derogation is sought, during each year for which the derogation is sought. The quantity of petrol for which the derogation is sought is the total summer sales in each year to The estimated quantity for which the derogation is sought in each year to 2020 is shown on the last row of Table 2 above. This has been estimated at 33% of projected total annual petrol sales. Information Item # 3: The quantity of petrol supplied to retail outlets in the last calendar year in the Member State concerned that currently meet the regulated maximum vapour pressure limit and, if applicable, the associated percentage of bioethanol content of that petrol. The quantity of petrol exported in the last calendar year from the Member State concerned and the associated average vapour pressure of that petrol. Sales to Retail Outlets Petrol sales in Ireland for 2008 were approximately 2.3 billion litres (~ 1,745 kt or 1,907 ktoe) of which 96% was distributed through retail outlets. The vast majority of summer petrol sales in Ireland have met the regulated vapour pressure limit of 70 kpa. There was an episode in 2009 in which petrol whose vapour pressure exceeded 70 kpa was detected in the summer months under the Fuel Quality Directive - Fuel Quality Monitoring Programme. Apart from that incident, 100% of summer sales (both petrol refined in Ireland and imported petrol) complied with 70 kpa the regulated maximum vapour pressure limit in Ireland. Petrol Exports A very small quantity of petrol was exported to the UK in 2009 amounting to 22 kt. This had an average vapour pressure of 90 kpa. These exports represent less than 1.2% of the national petrol sales in Ireland in There are no plans to export any significant quantities of finished gasoline from Ireland to Europe at any stage in the future. Biofuels In 2008 the quantity of biofuels used in transport fuels was reported to be 56 ktoe or 1.21% of the total sales on an energy basis in the National Energy Balance. Total road transport fuels used in 2008 amounted to 4,636 ktoe (including petrol, diesel and their bio-fuel components). Page 5 of 10
6 Information Item # 4: The quantity of petrol forecast to be supplied to retail outlets in the Member State and, if applicable, the associated percentage of bio-ethanol content that would not meet the regulated maximum vapour pressure limit during each calendar year for which the derogation is sought. Based on data from the Irish Petroleum Industry Association (IPIA) for 2007, some 96% of all petrol sales in Ireland were distributed via retail outlets while ~ 4% was sold to industrial and wholesale purchasers. This ratio is not expected to change materially in the foreseeable future. The volume percent of biofuels which is planned for inclusion in Irish petrol and diesel from July 2010 is % v/v. If the derogation is not granted, then without further investments in the one refinery in Ireland, none of the petrol refined and sold in Ireland in the summer time in the coming years could meet a 60 kpa specification based on current refinery configurations. (See note on impacts on refinery operation Section 5). As can be seen from Table 2, Ireland is a major net importer of petrol (~61% of all petrol sales are currently imported and this situation has been the case for the last 10 years). Hence, Ireland does not export any significant quantities of petrol to other Member States and retention of a 70 kpa limit in Ireland will have no implications for other Member States even those which (like Ireland) are major net importers of petrol. As already stated, there are no plans to export any significant quantities of finished gasoline to Europe in the future. Sales to other Members States, i.e. export sales, are thus normally ~ < 1.5% of total national petrol sales and could be zero in some years. Section 5: Socio Economic Impacts Market Harmonisation The data on socio economic impacts set out hereunder are provided to the Commission to enable an assessment of the derogation application under the listed criteria. Ireland depends heavily on imports to meet petrol demand. As seen in Table 2, approximately 61% of total petrol demand for Ireland is met by imported petrol. Of these imports ~ 90% has, historically, come from other countries having a low summer ambient temperature. Ireland s only oil refinery, at Whitegate, supplies the balance (39%) of Ireland s petrol demand. This Irish refinery is expected to produce some 650 kt of petrol per annum out to As the UK is also categorised in the FQD as an area with low ambient summer temperatures it is to be anticipated that the UK Government (in common with Ireland, Finland etc.) would also apply to retain its current vapour pressure regime in summer months i.e. will apply for a vapour pressure derogation for 70 kpa. If derogations are granted to Ireland, and other low summer temperature countries such as UK and Finland, this will have a beneficial impact on Ireland s ability to match its domestic refining and processing to importation from UK of compatible petrol meeting the same standard as the Irish-refined product. The situation will continue whereby petrol produced in Ireland s Whitegate oil refinery and petrol imports from UK would all be compatible within Page 6 of 10
7 the distribution system, with both being produced at refineries designed and operated to meet the same maximum summer vapour pressure of 70 kpa. As set out later in this application and the Appendices documentation, Ireland is among the Member States who are best placed in terms of meeting air quality targets in respect of ozone pollution according to the air quality maps produced by the European Environmental Agency (EEA). These EEA maps clearly show that Ireland, together with most of the UK and all of Finland and Latvia are in the lowest risk category with respect to vegetation and health impacts from ground level ozone. These areas of lowest risk to vegetation are shown as green areas in the maps in Appendix 1 attached to this application and can also be viewed on the link below). The importance of harmonised standards in adjacent low ambient summer temperature markets, particularly where there is a significant import/export interrelationship (such as between Ireland and the UK) is a factor which should be considered in the derogation assessment. It is considered very important for Ireland s transport fuel market that the regulatory requirement in respect to petrol vapour pressure limits in Ireland would be compatible with the other major source of petrol imports to Ireland. Impacts on Oil Refining in Ireland Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources requires each member state to ensure 10 % of the final consumption of energy in transport is from renewable sources in A Biofuels Obligation Scheme will apply in Ireland from July 2010 as a first step towards delivering this target. This will require sellers of transport fuels to include 4.167% v/v of biofuels in transport fuels or to pay a levy. This change will impact significantly on oil refinery costs for producing finished gasoline or blend-stocks for the petrol market in Ireland. The impact of this new biofuels obligation must also be considered in parallel in any assessment of socio economic impacts on refinery operations of reducing to 60 kpa, the vapour pressure limit for petrol sold into the Irish Market in the summer months. There would be several negative impacts for oil refining if the application for this derogation application is rejected. Under the bio-fuels obligation scheme, the Whitegate Oil Refinery will effectively move to being the producer of the fossil element of petrol. Whitegate Refinery will manufacture a product which may be referred to as the Base Oxygenate Blendstock (BOB). The implications for the refinery in seeking to produce a suitable BOB blendstock to meet different vapour pressure specifications (70 kpa and 60 kpa) are set out here: a) Scenario A: With Derogation granted - maintaining the existing specification of 70 kpa for a summer grade petrol containing vol % ethanol would require the refinery to produce a BOB with a vapour pressure of approximately 62 kpa. The Whitegate refinery will be technically capable of meeting this requirement in its current configuration but at an associated cost; Page 7 of 10
8 b) Scenario B: Without Derogation - reduced summer vapour pressure of 60 kpa. If, notwithstanding the arguments made in this submission by Ireland, the application to retain the summer specification of 70 kpa is not accepted by the Commission then the following situation would arise. In order to manufacture a BOB which, when blended with 4.167% by volume of bio-ethanol, must meet a limit of 60 kpa, then the refinery would need to produce a base oxygenate blendstock (BOB) with a vapour pressure of approximately 52 kpa. This would require much more severe reductions in butane and pentane content than is the current practice and is not technically possible with the current refinery configuration. It should be noted by the Commission that Ireland s only refinery, at Whitegate, is a hydroskimming refinery. This means that, compared to the more complex refineries in other Member States, it is much more difficult to achieve the reductions in BOB vapour pressure needed to meet a 60 kpa limit for finished petrol in Ireland s only refinery, compared to other refineries. This is because, in a hydroskimming refinery, the range of blending stocks produced is more limited than at the larger more complex refineries in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. As there is only one refinery in Ireland, detailed costs of the direct economic cost are considered commercially confidential but can be provided on a confidential basis if required. However, based on UKIPA research across the range of refineries in UK (See Appendix 4) it is estimated that the total cost to the Irish economy would be in excess of 18 million per year if the application for the derogation for continued use of the 70 kpa limit in Ireland were not granted. Section 6: Second Criteria - Environmental & Health Impacts (Compliance with Community Air Quality and Pollution Legislation) Air Quality in Ireland The EPA is responsible for managing the national air quality monitoring network which monitors national trends for a range of air pollutants including VOCs, NO x, ozone and benzene. The results for ozone air quality for the most recent year (2008) are shown below: Page 8 of 10
9 Figure 1: Number of Days with Maximum 8-hr O3 Concentrations > 120 µg/m 3 at Individual Stations in From EPA report Air Quality in Ireland 2008 Benzene concentrations have also declined progressively in Ireland and are now ~ 80% below the EU Limit Value of 5µg/m 3 at the urban monitoring sites in Dublin and Cork. The national emission ceiling (NEC) for VOC for Ireland under the NEC Directive (2001/81/EC) is 55 kt/year, to be achieved by The most recent EPA national projections 1 indicate that this ceiling will be complied with at 54 kt in The downward trajectory in NMVOC emissions in Ireland from 1990 to 2008 is presented below: The trend represents a 32.9 per cent reduction in emissions from the 1990 baseline level of 81.9 kt/year. Figure 2: Ireland s Historic Trend in NMVOC. From EPA data Trends in NMVOC Emissions A more detailed description of Ireland s compliance with various Air Quality Standards and targets and likely compliance with the National Emission Ceiling for NMVOCs is presented in the Appendices document attached. 1 ocument Page 9 of 10
10 Table 3: Summary Table of Compliance with Community Air Quality and Emission Ceilings Legislation Pollutants AQ standards or targets Ireland position Commission Criterion Air Quality Ozone Commission Criterion Air quality limit for Benzene Commission Criterion VOCs National emissions of VOCs in 2010 Must not exceed 120 µg/m 3 over 8 hour period for more than 25 days per year Ireland complies well with 25 day maximum - much better than central Europe according to EEA ozone 2007 vegetation map (See Fig. 1 above and Appendices document attached) 5 µg/m3 EPA measures benzene continuously at two urban stations. Results show that Ireland is well within the AQ standard (see Appendices) Obligation under the Directive 2001/81/EC on National Emission Ceilings to meet 55 kt NMVOC emissions in EPA projections indicate compliance with NEC ceiling. EEA statement that Ireland is broadly on track to meet NEC. Minimal NMVOC Savings from switch to 60 kpa There would be a very small saving in VOC emissions from current levels and trends if the vapour pressure limit was reduced to 60 kpa. The UKPIA has estimated there would be a saving of ~ 2,000 tonnes per annum of NMVOCs from such a switch in the UK, an economy of 61 million inhabitants. This saving of 2,000 t/year is in the context of UK sales of 20 billion litres of petrol per year and assumes the implementation in UK of Stage II controls on relevant sites i.e. installations at retail outlets with throughputs in excess of 3.5 million litres per annum are in place. On a pro rata basis to petrol sales in Ireland (see Table 1), the estimated figure for VOC savings in Ireland if the specification was switched to 60 kpa would be a saving of the order of ~ 200 tonnes per year. At an estimated 18 million per year in extra refining costs, this would represent a cost of 90,000 per tonne of VOC abated. This is more than an order of magnitude greater than typical abatement costs per tonne for many VOC reduction technologies cited in various Commission studies. On the basis of the limited VOC savings as projected, the lack of a VOC related human health or environment impact, and the high costs per tonne involved, this approach does not appear to represent a cost effective policy option as there are other VOC reduction initiatives currently under way which will contribute to ongoing reductions in VOC emissions e.g. electric vehicles, Stage II vapour recovery technologies, improvements in vehicle performance etc. ******************* Page 10 of 10
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