BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK December, 2017 Economic Research Department
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1 BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK December, 2017 Economic Research Department
2 PRIMARY SURPLUS % of GDP 3,5% 2,5% 1,5% 2,4% 2,0% 2,1% 2,8% 1,2% 2,8% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 0,5% -0,5% -1,5% -0,3% -0,8% -2,5% -3,5% -1,9% -2,5% -2,4% -2,2% Source: BCB, Bradesco
3 CONFIDENCE INDEX ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO EMPRESÁRIO INDUSTRIAL (ICEI) - DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS Industrial sector , Source: CNI, Bradesco
4 INVENTORIES LEVEL Título do Gráfico estoques invertidos Industrial sector, the higher the indicator, the higher the inventories , Historical average Source: FGV, Bradesco
5 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ÍNDICE Fonte: FGV DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) E SEUS COMPONENTES (DADOS Elaboração: Bradesco DESSAZONALIZADOS) Sep/2005 = 100 Setembro/2005= Confidence Current Situation Expectations ,8 74,5 Source: FGV, Bradesco
6 PIB anual GDP Annual rate of change, % 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% 4,4% 1,4% 3,1% 1,1% 5,8% 3,2% 4,0% 6,1% 5,1% -0,1% 7,5% 4,0% 3,0% 1,9% 0,5% 1,1% 2,8% -4,0% -6,0% -3,6%-3,5% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
7 GDP - CONSUMPTION Renda real Annual rate of change, % 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% 4,0% 0,8% 1,3% -0,5% 3,9% 4,4%5,3% 6,4%6,5% 4,5% 6,2% 4,8% 3,5%3,5% 2,2% 1,2% 2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -3,2% -4,3% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
8 RETAIL SALES PMC ampliada anual Annual rate of change, % 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 3,1% 6,4% 13,6% 9,9% 6,8% 12,2% 6,6% 8,0% 3,6% 4,5% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -1,7% -10,0% -15,0% -8,6% -8,7% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
9 REAL INCOMES Renda real Annual rate of change, % 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 1,1% 4,1% 3,4% 3,3% 3,4% 3,3% 2,9% 4,5% 3,4% 1,1% 0,1% 2,3% 1,5% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -1,7% -2,3% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
10 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Título do Gráfico Annual Average, % 14.0% 12.0% 11.3% 12.8% 12.5% 10.0% 8.0% 9.6% 8.7% 9.2% 9.9% 10.1% 9.8% 9.3% 9.8% 8.9% 8.0% 8.5% 8.2% 7.6% 7.3% 7.2% 6.8% 8.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
11 PAYROLL Salário Mínimo Number of formal Jobs, in thousands , , , ,0 645,4 995,4 730,7 500,0 152,7-150, , , Source: MTE, Bradesco
12 GDP - INVESTIMENTS Renda real Annual rate of change, % 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% -20,0% 4,8% 1,3% -1,4% -4,0% 8,5% 2,0% 6,7% 12,0% -2,1% 17,9% 6,8% 0,8% 5,8% -4,2% -10,3% -13,9% -2,0% ,0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
13 GDP - AGRICULTURAL Annual rate of change, % 14,0% 12,5% 12,0% 10,0% 8,4% 8,0% 6,7% 5,8% 5,6% 6,0% 4,6% 4,0% 3,2% 2,8% 2,0% 2,0% 1,1% 3,3% 4,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% -3,1% -3,7% -6,0% -4,3% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
14 GDP - Industrial Renda real Annual rate of change, % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 10.2% 8.2% 6.2% 4.1% 4.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 3.2% 0.0% -0.7% -1.5% -4.7% -3.8% -6.3% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
15 GDP - SERVICES Serviços Annual rate of change, % 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% 5,8% 5,8% 5,0% 3,7% 4,3% 4,8% 3,5% 2,9% 2,8% 2,1% 2,2% 1,0% 0,3% -2,7% -2,6% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
16 GDP - CONSTRUCTION Título do Gráfico Annual rate of change, % 15,0% 13,1% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 0,3% 9,2% 4,9% 7,0% 8,2% 3,2% 4,5% 4,0% -5,0% -10,0% -2,1% -2,1% -9,0% -5,6% -5,5% -15,0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
17 DESPITE THE EXPECTED RECOVERY, IT WILL TAKE SOME YEARS TO COME BACK TO BRAZILIAN GDP PEAK LEVEL Focus Bradesco 2017: 0.7% 0.9% 2018: 2.4% 2.8% 2019: 2.5% 3.0% 2020+: 2.5% 3.0% 155 Contraction since 2014: 11% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
18 CONSUMER PRICES INDEX IPCA Annual rate of change, % 14% 12,5% 12% 10% 9,3% 10,7% 8% 6% 4% 7,7% 7,6% 5,7% 3,1% 4,5% 5,9% 4,3% 5,9% 6,5% 5,8% 5,9% 6,4% 6,3% 2,8% 3,9% 2% 0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
19 Título do Gráfico MARKET EXPECTATION FOR IPCA 2017 Average, Annual rate of change, % 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 4,0 3,5 3 2, ,8 2 dez-15 abr-16 ago-16 dez-16 abr-17 ago-17 dez-17 Source: BCB, Bradesco
20 REGULATED PRICES IPCA ADMINISTRADOS ANUAL Annual rate of change, % 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 18,1% 15,3% 13,2% 10,8% 10,2% 9,0% 8,3% 4,3% 6,2% 4,7% 5,3% 5,5% 5,5% 3,3% 3,1% 3,7% 1,7% 1,5% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
21 DURABLE GOODS PRICES IPCA Título do Gráfico Annual rate of change, % 10% 8% 7,9% 8,9% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 4,5% 3,9% 3,1% 3,6% 3,3% 3,0% 0,9% 1,3% -1,8%0,0% 0,0% -1,9% -1,6% -1,1% -0,5% -3,5% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
22 SERVIÇOS ANUAL SERVICES PRICES IPCA Annual rate of change, % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4,9% 5,5% 7,3% 6,7% 9,8% 8,7% 8,1% 8,0% 6,7% 5,7% 5,8% 8,3% 8,1% 6,6% 4,5% 4,0% 2% 0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
23 FOOD PRICES IPCA Alimentação Domicilio Annual rate of change, % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 21,6% 12,9% 12,4% 9,6% 10,7% 10,7% 10,0% 9,4% 6,7% 7,1% 5,4% 4,5% 2,6% 0,6% 0,9% -0,1% -5,1% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
24 NOMINAL INTEREST RATE Título do Gráfico Selic, Annual rate 30% 25% 20% 19.00% 25.00% 18.00% 15% 10% 5% 13.25% 13.75% 11.00% 7.25% 14.25% 13.75% 7.00% 6.75% 0% Source: IBGE, Bradesco
25 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$ 4,3 4,1 3,9 3,7 3,5 3,3 3,32 3,1 2,9 2,7 2,5 mar-15 ago-15 fev-16 jul-16 jan-17 jun-17 dez-17 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
26 Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$, end of period 4,5 3,90 4 3,53 3,5 3,26 3,25 3,20 3 2,89 2,65 2,66 2,5 2,32 2,34 2,34 2,34 2,14 1,96 1,77 1,74 1,88 2,04 2 1,67 1,5 1 0, Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
27 SELECTED CURRENCIES Accumulated variation in the last 12 months Argentina Turkey Pakistan Indonesia Philippines New Zealand UAE Vietnam Colombia Brazil Canada Peru Australia Switzerland Chile Japan Russia China Índia South Africa Mexico Taiwan Singapore UK Korea Malaysia DXY Thailand Hungary Czech Republic Poland 15,0% 10,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 1,3% 0,5% -0,1% -1,5% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -3,8% -4,7% -5,6% -6,2% -8,0% -9,1% -15,0% Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
28 EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$, DXY index Dólar em relação à cesta DXY. Fonte: Bloomberg , ,82 3,3 3,32 2,7 85 DXY Real 80 2,1 mar-15 nov-15 jul-16 abr-17 dez-17 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
29 5 YEARS CDS AND BRL R$/US$ 550,00 CDS_5 BRL 450,00 350,00 250,00 150,00 50,00 3,28 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 181,72 2,00 1,50-50,00 1,00 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
30 OIL PRICES US$/barrel WTI BRENT 61,9 56, Mar-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
31 IRON ORE PRICES FONTE: FMI ELABORAÇÃO US$/ton E (P) PROJEÇÃO: BRADESCO NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO MINÉRIO DE FERRO (PREÇO SPOT NO PORTO DE TIANJIN/CHINA, MINÉRIO COM 62% DE TEOR DE FERRO) - US$/TONELADA Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
32 Título do Gráfico SOYBEAN PRICES US$/bushel Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
33 BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT US$ million, deficit as % of GDP % GDP -1.3% GDP -0.3% GDP -1.2% GDP % GDP Source: BCB, Bradesco
34 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Título do Gráfico US$ billion ,2 96,9 88,5 86,6 69,2 75,1 78,9 77,0 80, ,928,4 33,0 23,2 16,6 18,2 19,4 15,5 10,1 44,6 50,7 31, Source: BCB, Bradesco
35 BRAZIL THAT BRAZILIANS AND FOREIGNERS NEED TO KNOW o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SUGAR o 4th PRODUCER SHIPPING INDUSTRY o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER COFFEE o 4th PRODUCER PULP o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ORANGE JUICE o 4th PRODUCER TRUCKS o 1st PRODUCER REGIONAL JETS o 4th CONSUMER MOBILE PHONES o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SOYBENS o 4th ROAD NETWORK EXTENSION o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER CATTLE MEAT o 4th PRODUCER CLOTHING o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER TOBACCO o 5th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER COTTON o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ALCOHOL o 5th PRODUCER AND 7th EXPORTER ORNAMENT STONES o 2nd EXPORTER FOOD PRODUCTS o 5th PRODUCER TEXTILE o 2nd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER IRON ORE o 5th PRODUCER COCOA o 3rd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER POULTRY MEAT o 5th PRODUCER CEMENT o 3rd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER CORN o 5th PRODUCER PAPER o 3rd ELETRIC POWER o 6th PRODUCER PHARMACEUTICAL o 3rd CONSUMER PERSONAL COMPUTER o 6th PRODUCER CHEMICAL o 3rd PRODUCER FRUITS o 7th CONSUMER MARKET o 3rd PRODUCER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT o 7th PRODUCER RICE o 3rd INTERNET USERS o 7th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER SALES CARS o 3rd PRODUCER BUSES o 8th PRODUCER ALUMINIUM o 3rd PRODUCER FOOTWEAR o 9th PRODUCER STEEL o 3rd CONSUMER PERFUMES AND COSMETICS o 11th PRODUCER HONEY o 3rd PRODUCER BAUXITE o 13th PRODUCER OIL o 4th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER PORK MEAT o 15th WIND ENERGY o 4th PRODUCER BEVERAGES o 15th PRODUCER WHEAT o 4th PRODUCER MILK o 4th PRODUCER CERAMICS COVERINGS
36 DEPEC-BRADESCO DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report partially or in full is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the Sources the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO are strictly mentioned. Updated: November 3rd, 2017
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