Yusep K Caryana R & D Center for Oil and Gas Technology LEMIGAS, Indonesia
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1 Yusep K Caryana R & D Center for Oil and Gas Technology LEMIGAS, Indonesia JPEC 6 TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPPINES, JANUARY 2008
2 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 BACKGROUND INDONESIAN ENERGY MIX 2005 GROWTH OF DOMESTIC FUEL CONSUMPTION : TRANSPORTATION POWER PLANT RESIDENTIAL THE INCREASE OF SUBSIDY ALLOCATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PRESSURE
3 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 PRESIDENTIAL DECREE NO. 5/2006 : ENERGY MIX 2025 Natural Gas, 30% Coal, 33% Liquid Petroleum Fuel, 20 % New & Renewable Energy Resources, 17% Biofuel, 5% Geothermal, 5% Nuclear, wind, hydro, fuel cell, 5 % Coal Liquefaction, 2%
4 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF DOMESTIC TRANSPORTATION FUEL CONSUMPTION INDONESIAN TRANSPORTATION FUEL BALANCE 1400 FUEL DEMAND, MBCD Diesel Demand Gasoline Demand Diesel Supply Gasoline Supply Y E A R Source : MIGAS, Indonesian Master Plan of Refinery Study, ed with assumption 5 % GDP Solutions : New Refinery, Import & Fuel Conversion to Natural Gas and Bio Fuel
5 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 Gas LPG CNG Coal Coal Coal Bed Methane Liquefied Coal Biofuel Geothermal Biomass Nuclear Hydro Sun Wind CBM Fuel Type Coal Briquette New & Renewable Energy ENERGY DIVERSIFICATION Residential and Commercial Transportation tion Industry Power Generation Hydrogen / Fuel Cell Oil Shale Biogenic Gas
6 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel PM10 Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (µg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 8,540 8,540 8, (2010) 9,350 9,350 9, (2011) 9,680 9,680 9, (2012) 9,990 9,660 9, (2013) 10,230 9,880 9, (2014) 10,500 10,100 9, (2015) 10,760 10,320 10, (2016) 11,120 10,690 10, (2017) 11,390 10,950 10, (2018) 11,650 11,210 10, (2019) 11,930 11,480 11, (2020) 12,180 11,750 11, (2021) 12,540 12,090 11, (2022) 12,800 12,350 12, (2023) 13,060 12,600 12, (2024) 13,310 12,860 12, (2025) 13,570 13,110 12, (2026) 13,830 13,360 13, (2027) 14,080 13,620 13, Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005
7 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel SO 2 Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (µg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 4,370 4,370 4, (2010) 5,090 5,090 5, (2011) 5,210 5,210 5, (2012) 5,350 5,020 4, (2013) 5,460 5,090 4, (2014) 5,550 5,130 4, (2015) 5,670 5,170 4, (2016) 5,900 5,410 5, (2017) 6,000 5,490 5, (2018) 6,110 5,600 5, (2019) 6,230 5,720 5, (2020) 6,340 5,830 5, (2021) 6,550 6,030 5, (2022) 6,640 6,120 5, (2023) 6,740 6,210 5, (2024) 6,840 6,310 6, (2025) 6,930 6,400 6, (2026) 7,030 6,490 6, (2027) 7,120 6,590 6, Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005
8 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel CO Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (mg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 1,374,000 1,374,000 1,374, (2010) 1,428,000 1,428,000 1,428, (2011) 1,507,000 1,507,000 1,507, (2012) 1,578,000 1,576,000 1,540, (2013) 1,642,000 1,635,000 1,603, (2014) 1,689,000 1,678,000 1,650, (2015) 1,756,000 1,742,000 1,717, (2016) 1,814,000 1,808,000 1,785, (2017) 1,895,000 1,878,000 1,855, (2018) 1,963,000 1,945,000 1,923, (2019) 2,032,000 2,014,000 1,992, (2020) 2,100,000 2,083,000 2,060, , (2021) 2,170,000 2,152,000 2,129, (2022) 2,239,000 2,221,000 2,198, (2023) 2,307,000 2,290,000 2,266, (2024) 2,376,000 2,358,000 2,334, (2025) 2,445,000 2,427,000 2,403, (2026) 2,513,000 2,496,000 2,471, (2027) 2,581,000 2,564,000 2,539, Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005
9 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel NOx Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (µg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 47,390 47,390 47, (2010) 51,220 51,220 51, (2011) 53,500 53,500 53, (2012) 55,880 55,050 54, (2013) 57,990 57,160 56, (2014) 59,710 58,790 58, (2015) 61,880 60,910 60, (2016) 64,780 64,340 63, (2017) 67,160 66,270 66, (2018) 69,330 68,420 68, (2019) 71,520 70,600 70, (2020) 73,640 72,780 72, (2021) 76,660 75,740 75, (2022) 78,670 77,730 77, (2023) 80,670 79,730 79, (2024) 82,660 81,710 81, (2025) 84,660 83,700 83, (2026) 86,650 85,690 86, (2027) 88,650 87,670 88, Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005
10 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 Source : Bio Fuel Indonesia National Team, 2006
11 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 Source : Bio Fuel Indonesia National Team, 2006
12 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND Y e a r Source : Preparing a Gas Sector Development Plan, ADB, 2003
13 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND Source : Preparing a Gas Sector Development Plan, ADB, 2003 Y e a r
14 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF DOMESTIC POWER PLANT FUEL CONSUMPTION Source : Preparing a Gas Sector Development Plan, ADB, 2003
15 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF DOMESTIC POWER PLANT FUEL CONSUMPTION Source : Preparing a Gas Sector Development Plan, ADB, 2003
16 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF DOMESTIC POWER PLANT FUEL CONSUMPTION Source : Preparing a Gas Sector Development Plan, ADB, 2003
17 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY RESIDENTIAL KEROSINE SUBSTITUTION LPG Volume Biofuel Volume Coal Briquette Volume City Gas Volume (Senji) KL City Gas Volume (pipeline) Substituted Kerosine Volume Kerosine Volume (BAU) Source : Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources, Indonesia, 2007
18 Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, JANUARY 2008 CONCLUSIONS : IF THERE IS NO REFINERY INVESTOR, CLEAN FUEL CONVERSION WOULD BE SELECTED NATURAL GAS BASED FUEL UTILIZATION WOULD LEAD TO EMISSION REDUCTION IT IS PROPOSED TO ESTABLISH A CLEAN FUEL BALANCE IN ACCORDANCE WITH INDONESIAN ENERGY MIX 2025
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