Like a Box of Chocolates The Condensate Dilemma. 3rd Annual NGLs Forum

Transcription

1 Like a Box of Chocolates The Condensate Dilemma 3rd Annual NGLs Forum E. Russell Braziel RBN Energy, LLC September 23, 2013

2 Tsunami of Condensates Mb/d 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, » Historically U.S. condensate production has been the backwater of liquid hydrocarbons markets, with most condensate blended off into crude» Shale has changed that, doubling condensate production since 2011» Growing volumes of light crude oil and condensate will back natural gasoline out of the refinery motor gasoline blend pool» Both condensate and natural gasoline will increasingly be forced into Canadian and overseas export markets.» Except that condensates are classified as crude oil and can t be exported overseas without an (unobtainable) license from the Bureau of Industry and Security Source: EIA /RBN 2

3 The Condensate Family C5 Natural Gasoline Plant Condensate Pentanes Plus Field Condensates Naphtha Lease Condensate 3

4 What Defines a Field Condensate? Where it Comes From?» Exits the wellhead as a gas, condenses to a liquid at atmospheric pressure and temperature» Frequently the liquid output from a stabilizer Its Characteristics?» Is light liquid hydrocarbon as measured by API gravity» There is no standard cut point that separates condensate from crude oil (45? 50? 55? degrees API) EIA Definitions?» Most EIA statistics call it crude; Condensate is included in FERC crude oil statistics» Field condensate production statistics are estimates 4

5 Stabilizers Traditional Stabilizer Multiphase Hydrocarbon Stabilizer 5

6 Multiphase Hydrocarbon Stabilizer Expansion Source: Exterran 6

7 N. Gasoline/Condensate/Pentane+/Naphtha Lease Condensate Exports Field Stabilization Condensate Splitter Blended into Crude Oil & Gasoline Blendstock Natural Gasoline / Plant Cond. Naphtha Imports Petro Chemical Canadian Bitumen Diluent Overseas Exports 7

8 Natural Gasoline Production/Price Gas Plant Production WTI Mont Belvieu C Mb/d c/gal Source: OPIS/EIA 8

9 C5+ Demand From Petchems Cents per Pound Ethylene Production Margins Ethane Propane N. Gasoline (Naphtha) Mb/d Naphtha and Natural Gasoline *YTD Sept Source: RBN/Hodson 9

10 Relative Nat. Gasoline & Condensate Pricing 120 Nat. Gasoline vs. Crude 105 Condensate vs. Nat. Gasoline EF above MB C5+ $/BBl Mont Belvieu Nat. Gasoline St. James, LA Cushing, OK $/BBl Mont Belvieu Nat. Gasoline EF Condensate EF below MB C5+ 10

11 Natural Gasoline Exports /Total Diluent Mb/d Gas Plant N. Gasoline (Pentanes+) Exported U.S. Mb/d Total Diluent Supply Other Diluent Imports N. Gasoline Exports Source: EIA /RBN 11

12 Field Condensate: Market Geography 1. Eagle Ford Production 5 2. Permian Production 3. Corpus to Gulf Coast Marine Transport 2 4. Permian and Eagle Ford Pipeline Transport 5. Capline/Explorer to Southern Lights and Cochin

13 Eagle Ford Crude and Condensate Mb/d 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, » Eagle Ford crude and condensate share take away infrastructure» Condensates above 50 degrees API make up about 45% of Eagle Ford production» In total, the region has surplus take away capacity» Quality determines availability of takeaway capacity for specific grades Crude Supply Condensate Supply Take Away Capacity 13

14 Crude/condensate volumes through Corpus Christi terminals have grown from 7 MB/d to 390 MB/d in less than 2 years Corpus Christi Crude/Condensate Export Volumes Mb/d Source: Port of Corpus 14

15 Corpus Christi Volumes Moving to Houston, LOOP, Beaumont/Port Arthur, Freeport/TX City Other 19% Houston 25% August 2013 outbound volumes from the greater Corpus Christi area: ~500 MB/d Freeport/Texas City 19% Beaumont /Port Arthur 15% Morgan City 22% Corpus Christi Houston Texas City Freeport ` Mobile Bay LOOP (Morgan City) 15

16 The Problem for Natural Gasoline Plentiful Light Sweet Shale Crudes Natural Gasoline Cheap Condensates Gulf Coast Refineries More Naphtha Range Material in the Motor Gasoline Blend Components Blend Pool Motor Gasoline Market 16

17 Huge Increase in Exports Required to Keep U.S. Natural Gasoline Market Balanced Mb/d Gas Plant Supply Imports Petchem Demand Renewable Fuel Refinery Demand Exports» N. Gasoline blending demand falls dramatically from 160 Mb/d to 40 Mb/d due to influx of light sweet crude, condensates, diluent recycle & Tier 3 sulfur regs» N. Gasoline barrels available for export increase from 170 Mb/d to 435 Mb/d, split between Canadian and overseas 0 Source: EIA /RBN 17

18 Gulf Coast Natural Gasoline Exports Mb/d » Natural gasoline available for overseas exports increases from 3 Mb/d in 2012 to 120 Mb/d in 2018» Primary drivers are increased condensates and light crudes in the gasoline pool + Tier 3 Motor Gasoline regulations in Source: EIA /RBN 18

19 Condensates Will Be Exported in the form of Gasoline and Naphtha Products 1, MBPD ,200 U.S. Net Product Export Forecast Gasoline Distillate» Field condensates are considered crude oil and cannot be exported under current regulations unless processed» Surplus naphtha range material will be exported in the form of motor gasoline» Condensate splitter light and heavy naphtha product from the Kinder Morgan s Galena Park facility may also be exported Source: Turner Mason /RBN 19

20 Conclusions U.S. Condensate Market» Condensate supplies from U.S. shale plays are growing rapidly, particularly from the Eagle Ford» Natural gas plant production of natural gasoline is adding to the oversupply» Demand for condensate range material in the motor gasoline blend pool is declining, as is the use of naphthas and natural gasoline as petrochemical feedstocks» The demand for condensates and natural gasoline as diluent for Canadian bitumen is growing, but not as fast as the supply of those products» Quality variations in condensate production will result in price discounts» The oversupply of naphtha range material in the refinery blend pool will push natural gasoline into Canadian and overseas export markets and drive increases in motor gasoline exports 20

21 Why Does Natural Gasoline Production fall Decline each Winter? Mb/d Natural Gasoline Production Rich Gas to Gas Plant More C5s go overhead in hot weather Condensate More C5s go to condensate in winter 21

22 energy post E. Russell Braziel 2323 S. Shepherd Drive., Suite 1010 Houston, TX 22