OSEA DELEGATES MARKET BRIEFING Tuesday, 29 th November Oil And Gas Sector In Indonesia
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1 OSEA DELEGATES MARKET BRIEFING Tuesday, 29 th November 2016 Oil And Gas Sector In Indonesia OPPORTUNITIES IN A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT David Braithwaite, MBE President Director PT Q Energy South East Asia Founding Chairman of Britcham Energy Focus Group
2 UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS
3 National Oil and Gas Reserves Conventional oil and gas reserves are spread across the country, oil is dominant in West and Gas is more dominant in East Source: IPA/SKK MIGAS
4 Exploration in Indonesia has Underperformed; The Outlook for Future Activity is Challenging Reserves are declining (especially oil) and less than half of production has been replaced; limited new licensing activity Source: IPA/Wood Mackenzie
5 Declining Reserves Source: Various sources (PwC Investor Survey of Indonesian Oil and Gas Industry, May 2016)
6 Indonesia Oil & Gas Production Profile 1985 to 2025 Oil production is past its peak and is in decline and gas production will start to decline post 2020 Source: IPA/SKK MIGAS
7 Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (CBM and Shale Hydrocarbons) Significant resources of CBM and Shale Gas but still at an early stage of definition and development Coal Bed Methane (Coal Seam Gas) Resource estimate in basins: 453 Tcf Shale Hydrocarbon Resource estimate in basins: 574 Tcf Resource estimate in existing Working Areas: 112 Tcf 22 WK = Tcf 32 WK = Tcf Resource estimate in existing Working Areas: Gas: 71.7 Tcf Oil: 4.29 Bbo Source: IPA/SKK MIGAS-August 2015
8 Growing Shortfall of Domestic Oil and Gas Supply versus Demand This is generating concerns about future energy security Mboe/d 6,000 Projected Indonesian oil and gas supply vs. demand ( ) High-case 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Mid-case Low-Case 3.9 Mboe/d Undeveloped How to close a gap that could exceed 3Mboe/d by 2030? 1, Supply-demand gap likely to grow Indonesia needs to mobilise all energy resources Under Development Producing Source: IPA/Boston Consulting Group
9 Changes in Oil and Gas Production over Next 10 Years Production forecast shows it is moving from oil to gas, from west to east, and from onshore to offshore. New infrastructure is needed to bring gas to markets Production today Production in 2025 East D e e p e r Sources Source: IPA/Rystad Energy BCG Infrastructure to be extended and developed
10 Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Issues Opportunities New exploration incentives: Exempt from: o Import VAT o Import duty o Domestic VAT DMO Holidays Exemption from land and building tax at exploration stage Special treatment for deepwater remote and marginal areas (expected): Longer exploration period Tax and DMO holidays More favourable production split Source: Q Energy
11 Regulatory Issues Challenges PSC extensions: Regulation issued in 2015 but still uncertainty Fiscal uncertainty (assume and discharge): Prior to 2010 PSContractors did not pay additional taxes and fees Draft revision of Oil and Gas Law: Pertamina likely to have first right of refusal on new acreage Source: Q Energy
12 DOWNSTREAM OIL
13 Supply & Demand Forecast: Oil Fuels + Crude Oil (No New Refineries) Imports of oil increasing rapidly 2025 relative to 2013 Oil Fuels / Biofuels Demand Increase = 100% Oil Fuels Imports Increase = 185% Oil Fuels + Crude Oil imports supply 83% of total Oil Fuels demand Source: DEN, ESDM, BPH MIGAS, Pertamina, Synergy DSS/Q Energy
14 Need to Increase Operational Oil Product Reserves Additional OPR Requirements to Year % All existing Oil Fuels storage will be 100% occupied by year % Existing LPG storage is 100% occupied - CRITICAL SHORTAGE! +100% Existing Crude Oil storage is 100% occupied Source: Synergy DSS/Q Energy
15 (1) Reserves can be either Crude Oil or Oil Fuels products or a combination of both. Source: Synergy DSS/ Q Energy
16 Need to Establish Energy Buffer Reserves: Phase 1-30 Days Storage, Reserves and Costs up to 2025 Source: Synergy DSS/ Q Energy
17 Indonesia: Oil Refining Capacity Current status: Big shortfall of oil refining capacity - Last new refinery built >20 years ago - Current capacity: 830,000 bpd = requires 52% of domestic needs to be imported - Forecast demand by 2025: 2,280,000 bpd = requires 64% to be imported Source: Q Energy/Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas
18 Indonesia: Oil Refining Capacity Steps being taken to reduce oil product imports Pertamina upgrading refineries - Cilacap (Central Java) (Saudi Aramco) - Balikpapan (East Kalimantan) - Dumai (Sumatra) (Saudi Aramco??) - Balongan (West Java) (Saudi Aramco??) Pertamina to build new refineries - Bontang (East Kalimantan) - Tuban (East Java) (Rosneft) But progress has been very slow.. Source: Q Energy
19 Indonesia: Oil Refining Capacity New opportunity for Private Sector (Ministerial Regulation No. 35 of 2016 signed 10 November 2016) - Fiscal and non-fiscal incentives - Crude oil can be sourced from domestic or import - Output prioritized for domestic market - No obligation to partner with Pertamina - No obligation to sell to Pertamina Source: Q Energy
20 Downstream Oil Regulatory Issues Opportunities Refineries open to private investors Big investment in oil storage needed (for operational and strategic reserves) Challenges Draft revision of Oil and Gas Law: New Oil Aggregator may restrict private sector opportunities Pertamina dominance: Major market share in all oil sectors Source: Q Energy
21 MIDSTREAM/ DOWNSTREAM GAS
22 Existing Infrastructure Pipeline (2014) Legend Existing Transmission Pipeline Existing Distribution Pipeline Existing Dedicated Upstream Pipeline Kategori Period I Period II Period III Open Access ,315 12,580 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap
23 Roadmap Pipeline (2025) Legend Existing Transmission Pipeline Existing Distribution Pipeline Existing Dedicated Upstream Pipeline Kategori Trans-Sumatera Pipeline Trans-Jawa Pipeline Period I Period II Period III Open Access ,315 12,580 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap
24 Regasification (Land Based) Kriteria penentuan lokasi land based: Kota pantai yang masih mengunakan PLTD Pelabuhan-pelabuhan (SPBG/Landbased) Land based: 61 Units Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap
25 Regasification (FSRU) Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap
26 Virtual Pipeline for Gas Power Plant in Central Part of Indonesia PLTG/MG Minahasa Peaker 150 MW HUB PLTMG Tahuna 10 MW MPP Tobelo 10 MW PLTMG Malifut Peaker 5 MW PLTG/MG Gorontalo Peaker 100 MW MPP Sulbagut (Amurang) 100 MW 978 NM 46 MMSCFD MPP Malut (Ternate) 30 MW MPP Sofifi 10 MW HUB PLTMG Bima 50 MW PLTMG Sumbawa 50 MW MPP Lombok 50 MW PLTGU Lombok Peaker 150 MW MPP Sulsel (Tello) 50 MW PLTGU Makassar Peaker 450 MW PLTGU Sulsel Peaker 450 MW NM 140 MMSCFD PLTMG Selayar 10 MW MPP Waingapu 10 MW MPP Kolaka Utara 5 MW MPP Sultra (Kendari) 50 MW MPP Bombana 10 MW PLTMG Bau-Bau 30 MW 990 NM MMSCFD PLTMG Maumere Peaker 40 MW MPP Flores 20 MW MPP Wangi-Wangi 5 MW PLTMG Alor 10 MW MPP NTT (Kupang) 30 MW PLTMG Kupang Peaker 40 MW Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap
27 Indonesia Gas Balance MMSCFD DESCRIPTION I. DEMAND A. CONTRACTED DEMAND DOMESTIC Lifting and Own Used Fertilizer and Petrochemical Electricity 1,687 1,255 1,228 1, Industry 1,616 1,461 1,383 1,134 1,149 1, Transportation City Gas EXPORT 2,786 2,561 2,464 2,010 2,041 1,975 1,606 1,614 1,311 1, TOTAL 7,612 6,705 6,382 5,282 4,871 4,380 3,700 3,370 2,783 2,029 1,945 1,641 1,555 1, B. COMMITTED DEMAND DOMESTIC Lifting and Own Used Fertilizer ,004 1,069 1,116 1,116 1,125 1,145 1,159 1,169 1,157 1,158 Electricity ,024 1,038 1,385 1,485 1,581 1,577 1,714 1,698 1,724 1,899 1,904 1,879 1,922 1,902 Industry ,168 1,269 1,356 1,454 1,481 1,563 1,994 1,994 2,001 1,995 1,988 2,021 2,019 Transportation City Gas TOTAL 1,107 1,863 2,291 2,894 3,478 3,951 4,292 4,603 4,872 5,286 5,324 5,529 5,545 5,526 5,596 5,581 C. POTENTIAL DEMAND Electricity Potential for 35,000 MW ,053 1,049 1,049 1,057 1,058 1,060 1,063 1,063 1,063 1,063 1,063 Industry Potential Demand ,003 1,094 1,156 1,261 1,371 1,501 1,616 TOTAL ,207 1,295 1,744 1,775 1,878 1,971 2,061 2,154 2,219 2,324 2,434 2,564 2,679 TOTAL A + B 8,719 8,568 8,673 8,176 8,349 8,331 7,992 7,973 7,655 7,315 7,269 7,170 7,100 6,769 6,450 6,399 TOTAL A + B + C 8,921 9,117 9,456 9,383 9,644 10,075 9,767 9,851 9,626 9,376 9,423 9,389 9,424 9,203 9,014 9,078 II. SUPPLY A. EXISTING SUPPLY 6,578 6,705 6,227 5,529 5,026 4,500 4,222 3,914 3,584 2,920 2,268 2,035 2,030 1,719 1,548 1,167 B. TOTAL PROJECT SUPPLY ,769 2,211 2,446 2,864 3,092 3,412 3,333 3,108 4,099 3,889 3,319 3,025 2,753 2,407 C. POTENTIAL SUPPLY ,103 1,079 1,057 1,042 TOTAL A + B 6,905 7,638 7,996 7,740 7,472 7,364 7,314 7,326 6,917 6,028 6,367 5,924 5,349 4,744 4,301 3,574 TOTAL A + B + C 6,907 7,655 8,043 7,784 7,709 7,611 7,578 7,576 7,178 6,346 6,680 6,061 6,452 5,823 5,358 4,616 D. IMPORT ,777 2,263 2,226 1,902 1,920 2,374 2,304 2,988 2,363 2,601 2,610 3,267 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia Gas Balance
28 Midstream/Downstream Gas Regulatory/Policy Issues Opportunities Small scale LNG for distributed power Big expansion in gas infrastructure needed (to connect remote fields to markets) Gas seen as being a transition fuel from high carbon-emitting fuels (coal and oil) to renewable energy Source: Q Energy
29 Midstream/Downstream Gas Regulatory/Policy Issues Challenges Draft revision of Oil and Gas Law: New Gas Aggregator may limit private sector opportunities LNG import uncertainty: No licences issued yet and process not defined Gas pricing: Current pricing highly regulated and unpredictable Source: Q Energy
30 SUMMARY: CHALLENGES Oil and Gas Upstream Oil Downstream Gas Midstream/ Downstream - PSC extensions - Fiscal uncertainty - Oil and Gas Law revision - Pertamina dominance - Oil and Gas Law revision - LNG imports - Pricing - Oil and Gas Law revision Source: Q Energy
31 SUMMARY: OPPORTUNITIES Oil and Gas Upstream Oil Downstream Gas Midstream/ Downstream - New Incentives: - Exploration - Deepwater - Remote - Marginal - CBM, Shale - New Refineries - Oil Storage - Small scale LNG - Gas infrastructure - Transition fuel Source: Q Energy
32 For further information (to explore the opportunities or assess the challenges) Please contact: David Braithwaite President Director PT. Q Energy South East Asia UOB Plaza, 30 th Floor, Unit 02 Jl. M. H. Thamrin Kav. 8 10, Jakarta Indonesia P: F: E: davidjb@cbn.net.id / davidjbraithwaite@gmail.com W:
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