GLOBAL ENGINE MRO: ENGINE SESSION MRO EUROPE CONFERENCE APRIL Tom Cooper Executive Vice President & Principal TeamSAI Consulting

Transcription

1 GLOBAL ENGINE MRO: ENGINE SESSION MRO EUROPE CONFERENCE APRIL 2014 Tom Cooper Executive Vice President & Principal TeamSAI Consulting

2 ENGINE FLEET FORECAST 2

3 CURRENT WORLD ENGINE FLEET BY REGION In 2014 there were more than 48,000 engines powering the world s commercial fleet North America constitutes the largest region (31%) WE and AP round out the top 3 Top 3 combined represent 69% Bottom six regions make up a growing share of the market Growing from 31% to 41% in 10 years World Regions: AF Africa AP Asia Pacific CH China EE Eastern Europe IN India LA&C Latin America & Caribbean ME Middle East NA North America WE Western Europe Source: Ascend Online, TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis 3

4 FLEET FORECAST Engine fleet is expected to increase at 3.4% CAGR over the forecast period 3.7% ( ) and 3.0% ( ) This is an increase of 19,085 engines in 10 years North America represents more than 30% of the fleet in 2014, but its share will fall to less than a quarter by 2024 Slower CAGR (0.7% ) 4

5 CURRENT AND FORECAST ENGINE FLEET BY ENGINE MANUFACTURER By 2024, there will be nearly 68,000 engines powering the world s commercial fleet Today, the top 3 engine manufacturers are CFMI, GE, and Pratt & Whitney Rolls-Royce and IAE fleet of engines fall in the range Completing the list of top 5 manufacturers CFM International s fleet had the largest share (36%) 16 points larger than the next largest fleet CFMI s installed base will widen the gap by 2024, growing share to over 40% Source: Ascend Online, TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis 5

6 TOP 10 ENGINE TYPES BY 2024 New engine variants will be introduced Leap X1A/B/C, Trent XWB, PW1000G In 2014, no single engine type has a dominant share CFM56-7B has the largest share (18%), but there is a long tail to this distribution By 2019 though, -7B will have greatly increased fleet size by almost 3,500 By 2024, -7B could begin to see a decline in fleet size as the 737NG fleet recedes and MAX takes hold Most of this growth is forecast for the first 5 years of the 10-year forecast Though absolute growth is relatively balanced Net growth of >9000 engines in each half of the forecast Source: Ascend Online, TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis 6

7 ENGINE MRO OUTLOOK 7

8 GLOBAL ENGINE MRO IS THE LARGEST MRO SEGMENT Source: TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis Global growth is expected to maintain a 4.1% CAGR through 2023 Most of the growth is expected in first half of the forecast Growth in second half of forecast is much slower as new generation aircraft enter the fleet and older aircraft retire $22.1B industry will grow to $33.2B over 10- year forecast period Source: TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis 8

9 GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ENGINE MRO GROWTH RATES Global generally increasing 4.1% CAGR Europe generally increasing 3.1% CAGR Source: TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis Note: scales are different to highlight year-over-year variation 9

10 WESTERN EUROPE AND EASTERN EUROPE ENGINE MRO GROWTH RATES Western Europe generally increasing 2.1% CAGR Eastern Europe significantly increasing 8.7% CAGR Source: TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis Note: scales are different to highlight year-over-year variation 10

11 Global GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ENGINE MRO BY TECHNOLOGY LEVEL Europe New technology engines are forecast to make up an increasing but limited share of the market over the period Source: TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis Note: scales are different to highlight year-over-year variation 11

12 Global GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ENGINE MRO BY VINTAGE Europe New technology engines are forecast to make up an increasing but limited share of the market over the period But the newest types (Leaps and PW1000G, which will power the MAX and NEO, will have limited impact in this 10-yr forecast period Source: TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis Note: scales are different to highlight year-over-year variation 12

13 ENGINE MRO SOURCING NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE 13

14 BALANCE OF TRADE IN THE ENGINE MRO MARKET $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Engine Maintenance Supply & Demand ($USM) Demand Supply Region NA LA&C WE EE AP CH IN ME AF NA LA&C WE EE AP CH IN ME AF Net Exporter/Importer net exporter net importer net exporter net importer net importer net importer net importer net importer net importer Demand by Operator Supplier Region Region Region ($USM) NA LA&C WE EE AP CH IN ME AF NA $6,869 84% 0% 15% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% LA&C $835 69% 2% 28% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% WE $4,902 26% 0% 69% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% EE $614 18% 0% 77% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% AP $4,790 26% 0% 32% 0% 39% 2% 0% 0% 0% CH $1,306 41% 0% 34% 0% 6% 19% 0% 0% 0% IN $301 29% 0% 14% 0% 22% 0% 35% 0% 0% ME $1,947 46% 0% 29% 0% 10% 0% 0% 15% 0% AF $579 25% 0% 46% 0% 4% 0% 0% 10% 15% Total $22,144 14

15 CONSOLIDATION LEADS TO CHALLENGES FOR INDEPENDENT MROS TURBOMECA DYNNAMIC GUNVER TECHNOLGOIES EUROPEA MICROFUSIONI AEROSPAZIALI AERO ENGINE CONTROLS GAS TURBINE EFFICIENCY RETAN P&WC-BRISBANE AVEOS ENGINE SHOP PB FASTENERS UNISON ENGINE COMPONENTS PRIMUS INTERNATIONAL CENTRA INDUSTRIES AERICRAFT HEAT TREATING KLUNE INDUSTRIES AEROSTRUCTURETIMET SYNCHRONOUS AEROSPACE GROUP SUMMIT MACHINE AEROSPACE DYNAMICS INTERNATIONAL GOODRICH PUMP & ENGINE CONTROL SYSTEMS FINNAIR ENGINE SERVICES 15

16 THANK YOU Tom Cooper Executive Vice President & Principal TeamSAI, Inc. (404)