Coal Demand Supply Outlook in India Factoring coal sourcing, logistics, opportunities and strategies

Transcription

1 Coal Demand Supply Outlook in India Factoring coal sourcing, logistics, opportunities and strategies December 2013 E-REP Outlook Series Copyright 2013, All rights reserved

2 Coal has been the mainstay of Indian economy since the advent of industrial activity in India. From electricity generation to steel production and cement manufacturing to other industrial applications, coal is the key industrial engine driver. Core industries - crude oil, petroleum refining, coal, electricity, cement and finished steel have a combined contribution of about quarter in the index of industrial production and are therefore, indicators of present and future outlook of industrial activity. Exhibit 1.2: Percentage Share of Coal Based Capacity in Total Installed Capacity of India (FY 12) Exhibit 1.3: Sector-wise Coal Consumption in India (MTs) Nuclear Hydro xx % Renewable xx % CAGR = x.x Diesel Coal x Gas Source: Research Total Installed Capacity = xxx.xxx GW With respect to electricity generation, coal is having the peak share with more than xx percent of electricity production depends upon coal. FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 Power (Utilities) Steel Cement Others Source: Research Power sector consumes xx percent of the coal in comparison to other sectors on account of huge thermal power capacity in India. Copyright 2013, All rights reserved

3 Million Tonnes Most of the mines in India belong to the Opencast category as they are generally more economical to operate, even though they are considered to be less environment friendly. During last FY, about xx percent coal production of CIL was through opencast mines. Exhibit 4.2: CIL s Subsidiary-Wise Distribution of Opencast and Underground Mines The coal mines of the country are mainly concentrated in the eastern and western region with the maximum number of coal mines situated at Jharkhand, followed by West Bengal. It determines the location of consuming industries, as proximity to coal sources is a major location determinant. Exhibit 4.3: Percentage Share of Coal Based Capacity in Total Installed Capacity of India (FY 12) UG OC Coal Mines in India ECL BCCL CCL NCL WCL SECL MCL NEC Source: Research West Bengal Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Chhattisgarh Orissa Assam Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Source: Research & Analysis Copyright 2013, All rights reserved

4 During the XIIth FYP, the production from the xxxx and xxxx mines is expected to be the maximum followed by Raigarh and Kusmunda mines. Currently, the maximum production is from the Dipika Expn. group. which is about xx MT SECL is estimated to produce about xx MT of coal in FY17 and about xx MT amount in FY20. Exhibit 4.7: Estimated Production from Major Mine Groups of SECL in FY17 and FY20 Among the major mines of CCL, the production from the xxxx is expected to be the maximum after XIIth FYP, followed by xxxx and xxxx mines. Piparwar group is presently having the maximum production which is about xx MT. By 2017 CCL is expected to produce about xx MT of coal in and about xx MT by FY20. Exhibit 4.8: Estimated Production from Major Mine Groups of CCL in FY17 and FY20 FY20 FY17 FY20 FY17 Kusmunda Kathara Korba Dhori Dipka Expn. B & K Baikunthapur Hazaribagh Bishrampur Rajrappa Chirimiri Rajhara Hasdeo Raigarh Jamuna & Kotma Piparwar N.K. Argada Barka Sayal Source: Research & Analysis Source: Research & Analysis Copyright 2013, All rights reserved

5 Million Tonnes Presently CIL produces about xx percent of the total coal consumed in India. Gradually it will move from its current market share to xx percent in FY 2017 and xx % by FY Similarly SCCL will also move from its current market share of xx percent in FY2017 and to xx percent by FY To meet up the demand supply gap the share of imports will move from x in FY2017 to x by Exhibit 9.1: Coal Supply Estimates FY 2017 & FY 2020 FY 2012 FY 2017 FY 2020 Source: CO Model Coal supply by CIL Coal supply by SCCL Coal supply by Captives Coal supply by Imports Coal Demand Total Coal supply Copyright 2013, All rights reserved