INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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1 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 1
2 CONTENTS 1 REFINING INDUSTRY 2 COMPANY OVERVIEW 3 KEY FINANCIALS 4 INVESTMENTS 2
3 1 REFINING INDUSTRY 3
4 4 Brent Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl) 55 5 PROS OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut Healthy PMI data in US, Europe and China Expectation of high global GDP Protests in Venezuela Inventory levels 5,7 56,3 53,4 52, ,2 47,5 44,3 4 4, , CONS Increase in number of rigs & production in US Concerns about the impact of OPEC & Non OPEC production cuts Supply is still in line with demand, inventory drawbacks has not stabilized yet Increase in Libya, Brazil, Nigeria & Canada prod. High crude exports of OPEC 25 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
5 Refinery Capacity Change Thousand Barrels/Day Thousands 3. China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan North America Europe Gross Capacity Additions Source: Tüpraş, Reuters, Reports 5
6 Turkish Economy Strengths Population (mn) 1.4% growth in last 5 yrs -4 yrs >65% ,2 8,8 GDP Forecast (Million USD) 4,2 3, % % 4, 2,9 5, , Q Diesel Consumption 3.5% 8.7% average growth in last 5 yrs annual growth Car ownership per thousand people 67% Source: EMRA, TSI
7 Competitive Advantages of Tüpraş Added Value Created by Tüpraş Local Market Dynamics Cost Base of Tüpraş Best Fit for the Market with high diesel yield High Growth Energy Efficient High Complexity of Tüpraş Short on Diesel Crude Oil & Feedstock Cost Advantage Presence in all over Turkey through refineries and terminals Import Parity Pricing (Freight advantage of Tüpraş) Economies of Scale 7
8 Middle Distillate Cracks ($/bbl) Diesel ,8 1,4 7,2 11,1 1, 7,8 8,6 11,2 7,3 1,6 1,4 12,4 13,3 7,6 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec 2 Jet Fuel ,1 9,5 1,1 8,9 1,2 9,5 1,1 11,7 12,6 9,1 4 6,6 7,6 7,7 6,7 8, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu* Sep Oct Nov Dec Kaynak: Platts *As of 1th Aug,217 8
9 Light Distillate Cracks ($/bbl) 24 Gasoline ,6 13,5 9,8 14,1 12,2 15,9 13,7 13,4 12,8 14,3 15,3 15,7 11,9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu* Sep Oct Nov Dec ,4 -,7 Naphta -,5-2,2-2, -3,2-3, -2,2-1,6-4, -7,3-7,9-7,3-11,7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu* Sep Oct Nov Dec -2, ,2-17, ,2-14,9-19,8-19,5-21,9-31, LPG -46, -2,5-15,8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu* Sep Oct Nov Dec -4,7 Kaynak: Platts *As of 1th Aug,217 9
10 Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl) Diesel Jet Fuel ,7 15,2 14, , ,5 1,7 11,2 1,8 9,2 8,9 7,9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q ,5 9,9 11,2 1,7 1,2 9,4 7,3 7,7 7,9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Gasoline Fuel Oil ,3 15,2 13, 19,4 18,9 14,5 13,5 14,3 12,8 1,9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-7, -9,1-11,6-12, -13,2-15, -5,7-1,6-12,5-13,1 1
11 Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl) 1 Brent Differental Range Ural Differentials ,23-1,46-1,73-1,12 -,96-1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price Differentials Brent Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy 11
12 Turkish Consumption (Million tons) Diesel Jet Fuel , % 216 4,4-4% 215 2, , , % 214 4,1 +12 % Gasoline, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Fuel Oil* 216 2, % 216,58-3.5% 215 2, % 215,6-14.6% 214 1,92 214,71 Source: EMRA *bunker excluded.,8 1, 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2, 2,2,,2,4,6,8 12
13 5 Months Turkish Consumption (Million tons) Diesel Jet Fuel 217 8, ,6 +5.4% -7,5% 216 8, ,73,,5 1, 1,5 2,, 1,5 3, 4,5 6, 7,5 9, Gasoline Fuel Oil* 217,85 217, % -18.3% 216,84 216,29,,2,4,6,8 1,,,5,1,15,2,25,3,35 Source: EMRA *bunker excluded. 13
14 Turkey s Import / Export Balance (Net) (Million Ton) Export 2,1 2,5 2,4 2,5 3, 2,8 1,5 1,6 1, 1,8 1,6, , -3, -3,1-3,1-3, -3, Import -1, -1,8-12, -12,3-12,7-13, LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel 14
15 2 COMPANY OVERVIEW
16 Tüpraş Refining Assets & Distribution Network Baku OPET Marmara Terminal 721, m3 İstanbul İzmit Ankara Kırıkkale OPET Giresun Terminal 43,13 m3 Turkey Storage Capacity İzmir Batman Distribution Companies; 5.241; 42% Tüpraş; 7.228; 58% OPET Antalya Terminal OPET Mersin Terminal 19,392 m3 24, m3 Total Capacity: 28.1 mn. ton Nelson Complexity: 9.5 Tüpraş Storage Cap.: 7.2 mn. mᶟ OPET Storage Cap.: 1.1 mn. mᶟ Crude Pipeline Terminal Kirkuk Refinery İzmit 11. MT Capacity NC: 14.5 Storage Capacity: 3.3 mn m 3 İzmir 11. MT Capacity NC: 7.66 Storage Capacity:2.51 mn m 3 Base oil 4 k tons Kırıkkale 5. MT Capacity NC: 6.32 Storage Capacity: 1.41 mn m 3 Batman 1.1 MT Capacity NC: 1.83 Storage Capacity:.25 mn m 3 16
17 OPET Tüpraş Share 4.% Stations Market positions: 18.9% in White product; 1.5% in black product 1.1 Million M3 Storage Marmara, Aegean, Black Sea & Mediterranean 2nd Biggest Distribution Company by Volume # 1 Brand Royalty Award Jet Fuel Sales Turkish Airlines JV 66% Market Share Lubricants Fuchs JV International Trading London 17
18 Million Tons DİTAŞ, Marine Transport Tüpraş Share 79.98% Cumhuriyet Sevgi Gönül Suna Leyla Esra & Aylin Caroline Nevbahar Crude ,9 K DWT Products 28 1,98 K DWT Products 29 1,87 K DWT Products ,5 K DWT Products 211 6,3 K DWT Bitumen 2x2 K DWT Esra 214 Aylin 215 Products 29 1,9 K DWT Products 29 11,5 K DWT Turkey s leading company in marine transportation of crude oil and petroleum products World s biggest Asphalt Tankers (2 x 2, DWT ) for semi-product transfers btwn refineries 13 tugboats 1 mooring boats 2 service boats 1 pilot boat DİTAŞ Financials 216 (mn $) Net Sales 151,3 Op. Profit 4, ,9 2,6 18, 3,1 19,3 14,8 Crude Oil Product 9,6 8,4 3,1 3,5 11,8 5,2 6,4 4,8 6,6 15,2 5,9 9,
19 ,59,6,3,3,, 1,43 2,39 2,26 3,11 3,24 2,57 2,58 2,8 5,47 6,98 9,25 11,54 Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons) Crude Type ,% 6,3% In 216, Tüpraş purchased 18 different types of crude oil from 1 countries, with gravities ranging between API 41,7% > > , ,3 5,1 7,2,6 1,5 2, 2,1 1,9 2,9 2,8 2, 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,4 3,8 3,1 5,7 6,1 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,1,2,3,3,1,1,7 1,, 2,6,6,6,3 I RAN RUSSIA S.ARABIA TURKEY I RAQ K A Z A K STAN I TALY L İ BYA OTHER
20 J-8 A-8 J-8 O-8 J-9 A-9 J-9 O-9 J-1 A-1 J-1 O-1 J-11 A-11 J-11 O-11 J-12 A-12 J-12 O-12 J-13 A-13 J-13 O-13 J-14 A-14 J-14 O-14 J-15 A-15 J-15 O-15 J-16 A-16 J-16 O-16 J-17 A-17 J-17 Margin Environment ($/bbl) 9,5 Med Complex Month Annual 7,5 5,5 3,5 1,5 -, ,54 5,52 4,83 4,21 3,97 2,89 1,95 1,95 1,67 1,17 Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 12,7 11,9 11,2 1,6 9,6 8,2 6,47 6,3 5,41 4,83 3,97 3,21 2,45 1,67 1,95 Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers refining margin due to: Refined products deficit characteristic to the Turkish market Access to cheaper sources of crude oil Ability to use heavier and sour crudes Proximity to major suppliers Reduces transport costs Implemented cost reduction measures Energy efficiency programs Capacity to produce higher value added range of refined products Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients High export capability H1 2
21 Production Capacity Utilisation* (%) Quarterly Production Volume (Mil. Tons) , 4,1 14, 12, 4,4 5,2 116,5 7,6 18,9 99,6 96,8 64,9 Crude Oil Other Total ,1 6,6 5,6 7,8 6,9 6,7 Min / Max 27/ ,3 7,4 7,2 7,4 214 Q2 215 Q2 216 Q2 217 Q2 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 33 days of operations. 21
22 1st Half Product Yields Coke 2% ASRFO+Vac 1% Other 6% Fuel Oil 1% Other 5,7% Bitumen 11% Black Prod. 23,4% Mid. Distil. 48,4% Light Distil. 22,5% Gasoline 21% Naphtha 1% Jet 17%,1-2,2 Coke 3% Other 6% ASRFO+Vac % Fuel Oil 9% Other 5,8% Bitumen 9% Black Prod. 21,2% Mid. Distil. 51,4% Light Distil. 21,6% Gasoline 21% -,9 Naphtha 1% Jet 16% ULSD 31% White Product %75,59 Production : 13,34 mn tons API: 3,99 % +3 ULSD 35% 3 White Product %77,64 Production : 14,88 mn tons API: 3,71 22
23 Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons) Jet Fuel Bitümen Gasoline Diesel Domestic sales of selected products 5,44 5,42 4,64 4,15 4,34 3,89 2,62 2,94 2,75 3,29 3,52 2,8 2,86 2,23 1,83 2,27 2,33 1,66,6,64 1,73,55 1,48,52,57,54 1,8,45,46,63,91 1,16,92,79,39,43,23,27,43,44,29,42,76,86 1,,83,98 1,26 1,23 1,13 1,18 1,5 1,27,91 1,13 1,1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5,8 6,1 3,59 1,73,44,51 5,12 5,27 2,59 2,87,5,52,9, ,7 1,1 Domestic Export 5,6 1,7 3,6 3,9 6,9 7,2 1,8 2,3 5,1 5, 4,7,9 4,1 7,3 1,9 5,4 Total Sales 7,7 8,1 1,3 1,4 6,4 6,6 6,4 1,5 4,9 7,9 1,2 1,2 6,8 6,9 6,1 1,8 4,3 7,9 7,6 1,7 1,3 6,2 6, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 23
24 Investments (mn $) RUP Total Investment: $ 3,2 Billion Total Incentive: TL 3,78 Billion Remaining: TL 3,18 Billion Avg 278 mn $ Nelson complexity High white product yield Process more heavier and sour crudes Run all refineries with 1% capacity utilization Avg 943 mn $ H1 959 Avg. 279 mn $ *125 46,6 Ongoing Projects New Power Plant Revamp of Crude Unit FCC Modernization New Sulphur Units Energy Saving Projects Optimization of conversion units 24
25 3 KEY FINANCIALS
26 _R Q H 214 9M Q1 215 Q M Q H 216 9M Q1 217Q2,4,11,16,24,22,26,3 551,32, ,45,55 Financial Highlights (mn $) EBITDA Net Income Net Debt Return on Average Equity 3. 2.,6,5 1.,4, ,2,1, Q H 216 9M Q1217Q2 26
27 Balance Sheet Analysis 3,22 3,1 3,28 3,4 2,46 1,74 1,7 1,59 1,36 1,23 1,69 1,98 2,2 2,62 2, ,72 1,69 1,3 Cash & Equivalents (Billion $) 1,64 1,68 1,21 1,4 1,4,82 1,64 1,59 2,45 2,2 1,72 1,58 1,6 1,2,8,4,,93,71,52,51 Receivables (Billion $),9,2,66 1,7,88,7 1,9 1,15,91,91,75 Financial Loans (Billion $) Payables (Billion $) ,1,5 3,7 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,7 3,9 4, 4,2 3,6 3,6 3,4,9,3,3,3,4,5,6 1, 1,2 1,1 3,45 3,57 3,3,6,56,63 1, ,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3, 3,3 3,1 3, 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,892,95 2,1 1 1 LT Loans ST Loans 27
28 Tüpraş Balance Sheet Million USD Difference % Difference Current Assets Cash & C. Equivalents Receivables Derivatives Inventories Pre-paid expenses Other Current Assets Long Term Assets Financial Assets & Subsidiaries Fixed Assets Derivatives Pre-paid expenses Deferred Tax Other Long Term Assets Total Assets Short Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables Derivatives Deferred Incomes Provisions Other ST Liabilities Long Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables & Provisions Derivatives Other LT Liabilities 2 2 Equity Minority Interests Total Liabilities
29 Dividend 12 Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout Total Payout (Mn. TL) One of the highest dividend yield in BIST 1, , , ,31 2,5 2, ,98 4, ,83 3,93 3, In principle; as far as the related regulations, investment needs and financial situation allow, the entire amount of the net distributable profit for the period, calculated within the frame of the Capital Markets Regulations, is distributed in cash taking into consideration the market expectations, long term company strategies, investment and financing policies, profitability and cash position as long as it is covered from the existing resources in our legal records. 212/213 EPS includes the tax incentive 29 4, ,58 6,5 7,16 6,
30 Creating Competitive & Sustainable Shareholder Value Foreign Currency Long Term Tüpraş BBB-(IG) Ba1 (Stab.) Turkey BB+ (stable) Ba1 (Neg.) BB Koç Holding Baa3- (IG) BBB (IG) Analyst Recommendations CORPORATE GOVERNANCE RATING O V ERALL 94,15 HOLD; 33% S H A R EHOLDERS T R A N S P A R ENCY S T A K EHOLDERS 95,51 92,55 97,66 BUY 67% B O A R D 92,8 Tüpraş has one of the highest Corporate Governance Ratings 3
31 FX Risk Exposure (3 June 217) Consolidated Assets Cash 541 Receivables & other assets 2 Stock Forward & CFH 2,142 Million $ Consolidated Liabilities Payables 932 ST Financials 1.75 RUP 35 Eurobond 7 LT Financials: 1,797 RUP Loans: 1,111 Other credits 687 A significant portion of the Group's crude oil and refined product purchases are denominated in US Dollars. In addition, the Group finances its capital expenditures mostly through borrowings denominated in US Dollars. Natural Hedge: The Group is able to mitigate some of the impact of volatility in exchange rates through natural hedges: crude oil and refined product inventories are US Dollar denominated assets. Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financing loans designated as hedging instruments of highly probable export revenues. +34 million $ As a general Koç Holding financial policy, Group companies are allowed to keep foreign exchange positions within certain limits. 31
32 32 Future Expectations Brent Price Estimation Med Complex Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Capacity Utilisation Investment The average Brent price in 217 is expected to be 5-55 dollars per barrel. We expect Med Complex margins to be between dollars per barrel band in 217. Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of dollars per barrel Expectations for 217; Full Capacity Utilization Production: approximately 29.2 million tons Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production Total sales: 3.6 million tons Refining investments is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million dollars investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity.
33 Updated information can be found in the Investor Relations section of the company website DISCLAIMER Investor Relations and Reporting Department Tel. : Fax : Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No.25 PK.4179 Körfez-Kocaeli info@tupras.com.tr This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. 33
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