What a Difference.. Resin prices plummet Economy tanked globally 401K = 201K Fourth quarter demand collapse Resin producer M&A activity Resin producer
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1 Polyolefins: Drivers and Trends North America and the World Nick Vafiadis Business Director - Polyolefins nvafiadis@cmaiglobal.com February, 2009 Singapore Shanghai Flexible Houston Packaging: New York London February Düsseldorf 2009 Dubai
2 What a Difference.. Resin prices plummet Economy tanked globally 401K = 201K Fourth quarter demand collapse Resin producer M&A activity Resin producer bankruptcies Plant shut-downs project delays Inventory draw downs Resin price reversal down to up
3 Energy and Economy Summary PE demand somewhat linked to GDP Global recession (negative GDP) in 09 with recovery in 2010 Mature economies lag developing world in the recovery Annualized energy prices bottom in 09: prices recover in but remain below 2008 record highs h Nat Gas remains favored vs Naphtha as an ethylene feedstock
4 Energy How did high energy impact plastics packaging? Higher cost of plastic raw material Higher cost of converting utilities Higher cost of package contents Higher cost of shipping products = Demand destruction!
5 What are some ways industry responded to higher energy related packaging costs? Downsize the package Downgauge wall thickness Recycle material added to package Blend in lower cost fillers Innovative packaging
6 Ethylene
7 U.S. Ethylene Supply/Demand Outlook Billion Pounds Operating Rate, Percent % 16 Forecast 100% Q3 02 Q3 03 Q3 04 Q3 05 Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Total Demand Effective Operating Rate Nameplate Operating Rate
8 U.S. Ethylene Market Quarterly Economics Large Buyer Contract Cash Margins Cents Per Pound Dollars Per Metric Ton Forecast Q3 05 Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 Wtd. Average Cash Cost Wtd. Average Cash Margin Average Spot Price Large Buyer Contract Price
9 Global Ethylene Capacity Growth ( Tons ) Major Region 2007 Capacity 2012 Capacity '07 to '12 Delta Middle East / Africa 16,833 35,978 19,145 Asia Pacific 37,940 52,097 14,157 America's 40,393 40, Europe 30,970 31, World Total 126, , ,554
10 Company Arya Sasol The Immediate Issue... Nine Million Tons By 2009 Gulf Ethylene Projects Jam PC Jubail ChevPhi SEPC TKOC Yansab Petro-Rabigh TKOC SHARQ RLOC Country Capacity (kt) Time Capacity Add., MMT 10 Iran 1000 Online 8 Iran 1320 Online Saudi Arabia 300 Online Saudi Arabia 1000 Online Kuwait 850 Online Saudi Arabia 1300 Q1 09 Saudi Arabia 1300 Q1 09 Kuwait 850 Q4 08 Saudi Arabia 1200 Q3 09 Qatar 1300 Q H'09 Q1 09 Q4 '08 2 Online 08
11 We are on the Brink Ethylene Capacity, MMT Operating Rate, Percent Total Middle East Capacity Global Operating Rate
12 Polyethylene l
13 PE: US Current Status Significant capacity currently shut down or turned down Producer integrated margins have improved Key Producers facing major challenges ie (Dow, LBI, Nova, Ineos, etc..) Inventories have been reduced at producer and converter sites Domestic demand remains weak Export volumes well off 08 averages Price increases announced through March
14 Film Demand and GDP Change Million Pounds Percent Change Q1 06 Q3 06 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q U.S./CAN Film Demand U.S. % Change GDP
15 Reduced Global Demand Total PE Domestic Demand Comparison, World Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons Updated Forecast Demand Forecast 10/2008
16 PE Demand Decline Mature Markets Domestic PE Demand, Million Metric Tons West Europe US/C U.S./Canada
17 China Takes a Hit Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons Demand Forecast 10/2008 Updated d Forecast
18 Recovery Drivers GDP Improvement Demand Bounce following recession: developing world leads recovery Lower prices stimulate base demand Capacity rationalization helps balance supply note: not suggesting or recommending that FPA members or resin producers close capacity individual decision.
19 Million Pounds U.S./Canada PE Film Resin Quarterly Demand Forecast Q3 04 Q3 05 Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 Source: ACC,, Plastics Division; Gov t Trade Data Film Resin Demand
20 Global PE Film Resin: Demand Bounce Accelerated Recovery vs Pre-Recession Global PE Film & Sheet U.S. & Canada Film & Sheet Note: Values = percent change
21 HDPE Film Resin Demand HDPE Percent Change Film 12 Mils and Below Packaging Film 0.7 Food Packaging Film -4.1 Non-Food Packaging Film 5.9 Non-Packaging Film Retail Bags Trash and Can Liners Other Non-Packaging Film -2.0 Source: ACC,, Plastics Division; Gov t Trade Data
22 LLDPE Film Resin Demand LLDPE Film (12 Mils and Below) Packaging Film Food Packaging Film Non-Food Packaging Film Non-Packaging Film Percent Change Source: ACC,, Plastics Division; Gov t Trade Data
23 LDPE Film Resin Demand LDPE Percent Change Film (12 Mils and Below) Packaging Film Food Packaging Film -7.7 Non-Food Packaging g Film Non-Packaging Film -5.9 Source: ACC,, Plastics Division; Gov t Trade Data
24 Global PE Film and Sheet Resin Demand Growth By Region 2008 versus 2013 N America 0.9% 2008 SA America 51% 5.1% 2013 W Europe C Europe CIS & Africa 2.0% 4.4% 5.7% M East 6.7% NE Asia SE Asia Indian SC % AAGR % 6.0% 2.1% 5.7% Million Metric Tons
25 4 th Quarter: Turmoil Regional LLDPE Price Comparison (Discounted & Spot Prices) Cents Per Pound Dollars Per Metric Ton Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 NAM LLDPE WEP LLDPE CHINA LLDPE (Spot) NAM Cash Cost, Integrated NAM Cash Cost, Non Integrated
26 Limited Competitiveness for NAM Regional HDPE comparison (Discounted & Spot Prices) Cents Per Pound 110 Dollars Per Metric Ton CMAI Forecast Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 NAM HDPE WEP HDPE CHINA HDPE (Spot) NAM Cash Cost, Integrated NAM Cash Cost, Non Integrated 661
27 Thousand Metric Tons U.S. PE Export Decline 06 M M J S N 07 M M J S N 08 M M J S N Total Selected Regions N.America S.America Europe Far East Other
28 Billion Pounds 3.0 U.S./Canada Quarterly PE Exports 2.5 Forecast Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 HDPE Exports LLDPE Exports LDPE Exports
29 Billion Units 70 U.S. Bag Imports Percent st/02 4th/02 3rd/03 2nd/04 1st/05 4th/05 3rd/06 2nd/07 1st/08 0 China Share of Total World China
30 2008 U.S. Film & Bag Imports (PE Resin Volume Equivalent) Other 27% Canada 26% Taiwan 7% Korea South 2% Israel Mexico 1% 4% Germany 1% France 1% China 31% 2.0 Billion Pounds of PE Resin
31 Million Metric Tons World Polyethylene Net Capacity Additions N. America S. America W. Europe C. Europe/CIS & Baltic States Africa/M. East Asia/Pacific
32 PE Projects And Debottlenecks (Project Changes From Oct.08 to Jan.09) Thousand Metric Tons View as of January October Main Changes: 4500 Reduction of 1.3 MMT in 4Q Reduction of 2.0 MMT in 1Q Addition of 1.8 MMT starting up in 3Q Net loss of 465 thousand metric 2500 tons in the period Q-08 1Q-09 1Q Q Q Q AFR CEP CIS ISC MDE NAM NEA SAM SEA WEP
33 Unprecedented Excess Capacity Driving PE, Million Metric Tons Low Operating Rates Operating Rate, Percent 100 Forecast Excess Capacity Cumulative Operating Rate
34 North America PE Chain Margins Cents Per Pound Dollars Per Metric Ton 2205 CMAI Forecast Q1-00 Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q Ethylene Cash Margin Weighted Avg Non-Integrated PE Margin NAM LLDPE Disc. Price
35 PE Take-Aways NAM Industry enjoyed competitive cost position through most of Advantage reduced in 09 Global recession accelerates capacity shutdowns and results in project delays Despite delays and shutdowns, unprecedented oversupply conditions drive down operating rates and margins. The cycle trough is expected in , global recovery evident by 2011
36 Polypropylene py
37 No Surprises in PP Weaker economy leads to lower demand worldwide Short term projects WILL come on line with minor delays Numerous shut-downs of existing capacity expected (still lower operating rates)
38 Reduced Global PP Demand Total PP Domestic Demand Comparison, World Thousand Metric Tons 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30, MM tons =10% reduction 20,000 10, World_Total 08 World_Total 08t
39 Mature Markets: Demand Goes Negative PP Domestic Demand Comparison, North America Thousand Metric Tons Balances, August Balances, January Region_NAM 08 Region_NAM 08t
40 Developing Markets: Demand Growth From Double Digits To Marginal Thousand Metric Tons 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PP Domestic Demand Comparison, China China 08 China 08t
41 PP Demand Recovers At Accelerated Rate vs Pre-Recession Global PP Film & Sheet U.S. & Canada Film & Sheet Note: Values = percent change
42 World Polypropylene Demand by Region N America S America 5.5% 1.5% W Europe 18% 1.8% C Europe CIS & Baltic Africa 4.6% 71% 7.1% 2008 Total Demand = 44.1 Million Metric Tons World AAGR % = 4.5% 8.5% M East 6.3% NE Asia SE Asia 5.0% Indian SC 8.7% 5.3% % AAGR, Million Metric Tons
43 Polypropylene North America, Percent Change YTD December 2008 Vs Production Imports Total Supply Domestic Sales Exports (est.) Total Sales Avg. Op. Rate- YTD 07 Inventory change MM LBS. YTD 2007 Sources: ACC, Plastics Division; Gov t Trade Data PP
44 Domestic Demand Still In Doldrums Million Pounds Re-stocking Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 Total Average
45 Million Pounds U.S./Canada PP Film Quarterly Demand Forecast Q3 04 Q3 05 Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 Film Resin Demand Source: ACC,, Plastics Division; Gov t Trade Data
46 North America PP Exports Million Pounds Forecast Overcapacity Taking Toll Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3
47 Million Metric Tons 7 World Polypropylene Net Capacity Additions N. America S. America W. Europe C. Europe/CIS & Baltic States Africa/M. East Asia/Pacific
48 Projects: Delayed, But Not By Much October PP Projects, Thousand Metric Tons View as of January Q-08 1Q-09 1Q Q Q Q AFR CEP CIS ISC MDE NAM NEA SAM SEA WEP
49 North America PP Capacity Additions & Shutdowns Company Dow - Norco Ineos Choc Bayou FPC Pt Comfort Shutdown Yes Yes - Restart - MM Pounds When YE Total PC La Porte H Indelpro - Mexico Basell - Bayport Basell - Canada Basell - Canada Basell - Morris - - Yes Yes YE 2007 Q H H Yes H Yes Q Pasadena Yes YE 2008 Yes H Bayport Yes H PSPC - Pasadena FHR - Odessa Sunoco - Bayport
50 Unprecedented Excess Capacity PP, Million Metric Tons Driving Low Operating Rates Forecast Operating Rate, Percent Excess Capacity Cumulative Operating Rate 70
51 U.S. Polypropylene/Propylene Pricing Monthly Price, Cents Per Pound Forecast 100 Peak A J O 07 A J O 08 A J O 09 A J O 10 A J O PP - C3 Propylene PP
52 U.S. PP versus Propylene Cents Per Pound CMAI Forecast Margin over Feedstock Adj PP Domestic PG Propylene - C3 Cash Margin Adjusted PP Price = Estimated Actual Injection Molding Homopolymer Price; PG Propylene = Contract Benchmark Price
53 PP Take Aways Increasingly gy negative economy affecting PP demand Lower demand magnifies impact of overcapacity Price forecast for 09 is relatively flat and tracking propylene individual negotiations determine outcome Domestic resin demand better than expected in (January), but forecast remains weak Export market to become more competitive Additional shut-downs expected
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