SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE PREMIUM REVIEW
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1 SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE PREMIUM REVIEW December 3, Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
2 December 3, 2014 Société Générale Premium Review 1 INVESTOR DAY DIGEST: CHINA STRATEGY DIGEST T&B STRATEGY DIGEST 2 3 CONTINUED MARKETS SLOWDOWN OUTLOOK 2 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
3 December 3, 2014 Société Générale Premium Review 1 INVESTOR DAY - DIGEST 3 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
4 December 3, 2014 Société Générale Premium Review a MICHELIN Ambition in China: more than double the business over the next 10 years 4 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
5 Already the largest in Truck & bus park and still growing Growing tire market which is getting sophisticated Truck & Bus park (in millions of vehicles) Truck & Bus tire market (in millions of tires) Brazil India China Russia USA Europe 40M (o/w radial 22M) 2/3 of WW growth 1/3 of WW growth 58M (45M) 55M (46M) 63M (59M) Radial market : +8 % p.a. Y % p.a. Y14-19 Bias market Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 Y12 Y13 Y14 Y15 Y16 Y17 Y18 Y19 China to represent over 50% of worldwide vehicle growth 5 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
6 Our TB Strategy: to grow profitably in 5 high-value segments, where our differentiated offer is recognized Coach Go west / low tier city, still 60% population Safety First Urban Bus Urbanization from 54% to 70% in 2030 Dangerous Goods Express Delivery Safety, Environment, Efficiency 20%+ CAGR of natural gas import in next 5 years, #2 in world Reliability E-commerce booming, up to 50% share of retailing in next 10 years (vs 7% now) Target segments size 28% radial Market Faster growth than market 10 M M 2019 Uptime Cold Chain Only 10% population covered by cold chain logistics, while 80% in US/Europe Uptime 6 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
7 Fast growing to be the worldwide largest in Passenger car and fast growth of tire market with higher mix Car park (in millions of vehicles) China to represent over 50% of worldwide vehicle growth Brazil India China Russia USA Europe PC tire market (in millions of tires) Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
8 Our PC strategy: grow quicker than the market Business growth (100 based in 2010) Progressive growth 17 + unit sales Gross Margin Tons Net sales Mix machine to support profitability Increase OE lift Penetrate "Emerging China" Société Générale Premium Review December 3,
9 Core strengths to capture growth MICHELIN brand: capitalize on a superior equity Leading consumer advocacy and purchasing intention Product: deliver the total performance an outstanding performance in safety and wear while not compromising in others (2014 Autobild test rated Michelin No.1 for China) Local Footprint: high customer intimacy and supply chain reactivity 8 Sales Offices 4 plants (Production in K tons/year*: 250 by 2017, JV excluded) Distribution network: # PC tire dealers: 7,800 # T&B tire dealers: 1,800 9 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
10 December 3, 2014 Société Générale Premium Review b Group Truck tire ambition: Grow MICHELIN share of Premium segment Expand in Intermediate Keep improving profitability 10 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
11 Market expansion driven by new countries In million tires CAGR % CAGR % Mature New 2022 Source: Michelin estimates 11 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
12 Pricing tiers: Premium increasing in line with market expansion Intermediate fastest growing segment at expense of Budget Market price +15% Average -15% Premium Intermediate 25% 24% 27% 36% Budget 48% 40% DEFINITION % = weight of total market (new tires) Source: Michelin estimates 12 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
13 Strengthen MICHELIN: Best TCO and more affordable Expand Intermediate: CPK, reliability Out-of-Pocket CPK Opportunists Value Load Care Safety Uptime North America South America Africa / Middle East Cost Control Asia 13 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
14 Strengthen MICHELIN brand: best TCO and more affordable Matching customer expectations (wear life and fuel efficiency) with innovation to deliver the best total cost of ownership Performance lever Patent clusters Industrial Know-How Competitiveness plan: Truck division to contribute 400m to Group 1bn WET GRIP MICHELIN Xline Energy Z ROLLING RESISTANCE ENDURANCE WEAR LIFE Reference: Premium Average 14 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
15 Expand INTERMEDIATE brands: cost per Kilometer 1 st life at low price and lean R&D and manufacturing Worldwide commercial launches from 2013: Intermediate Product Design: Product wear life and balance of performance designed to targeted segments Reliable casing, excellent manufacturing quality Adaptation of material specification to reduce material cost Focus on lower mass & fewer components A lean RDI process Small and efficient design team A lean manufacturing Driven by standardization and process optimization 15 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
16 A recovering profitability SR2 Operating margin (before non-recurring items, in % of net sales) 9% 7% 6.6% 7.8% 8-9% 4.4% 3.5% 2.5% -1.5% e 16 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
17 December 3, 2014 Société Générale Premium Review 2 CONTINUED SLOWDOWN IN MARKETS 17 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
18 Passenger Car and Light Truck Tire Market October : Sharp decline in demand for winter tires in Europe, due to the mild weather 18 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
19 Truck Tire Market: Continued deceleration in the RT European market in October given the economic environment, OE and RT accentuated trends in North America and Brazil 19 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
20 December 3, 2014 Société Générale Premium Review 3 OUTLOOK 20 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
21 2014 guidance Previous October Volumes Up by around 3% Between 1% & 2% Impact of raw materials prices Tailwind Confirmed Price-mix / raw materials Positive Confirmed Competitiveness / production costs Neutral Confirmed Increase in SG&A expense Slightly higher Confirmed Operating income before non-recurring items Lifted by growth, excluding any currency effects Confirmed Op. margin before NR Passenger car tires (RS1) Middle of the 10-12% range Confirmed Op. margin before NR Truck tires (RS2) Top of the 7-9% range Confirmed Op. margin before NR Specialty businesses (RS3) Bottom of the 20-24% range Confirmed ROCE More than 11% Confirmed CAPEX Around 2,000m Confirmed Structural free cash flow More than 500m Confirmed 21 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
22 janv.-12 juil.-12 sept.-12 nov.-12 janv.-13 mars-13 mai-13 juil.-13 sept.-13 nov.-13 janv.-14 mars-14 mai-14 juil.-14 sept.-14 mars-12 mai-12 Raw material trends Steelcord 9% Textile 6% Natural rubber 30% Chemicals 13% 19% 24% Fillers Synthetic rubber 22 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, RSS3 TSR20 janv.-12 juil.-12 sept.-12 nov.-12 janv.-13 mars-13 mai-13 juil.-13 sept.-13 nov.-13 janv.-14 mars-14 mai-14 juil.-14 sept.-14 mars-12 mai-12 /$ exchange rate Average Q4 13: /31/2014: % Raw material purchases H1 14 (2 522m ) Brent 20 0 Synthetic Rubber manufacturing BLS janv.-12 mars-12 mai-12 juil.-12 sept.-12 nov.-12 janv.-13 mars-13 mai-13 juil.-13 sept.-13 nov.-13 janv.-14 mars-14 mai-14 juil.-14 sept.-14 Brent RSS3 TSR20 Synthetic rubber manufacturing BLS
23 2015 Outlook: Improving Market Demand Trend MATURE MARKETS NEW MARKETS SPECIALTY MARKETS Mining * in Europe & North America 23 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
24 2015 & 2016 Capex further adjusted to allow higher asset turnover Capital expenditure and depreciation (In millions) Capital expenditure Depreciation 1,711 1,996 1,980 2,000 1,800 1,700 1,800 1,600 1,700 1, e 2015e 2016e 2017e 24 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
25 A business that structurally generates Free Cash Flow Structural free cash flow (In millions) ,000 In millions Reported free cash flow (1) (19) 1,075 1,154 WCR impact of raw materials costs (2) (739) Year-end volume effect on WCR (3) (200) 344 nm One off (4) (Sales of Hankook shares in 2011, sale of the Parisian building 2012) Structural free cash-flow (1) (2) (3) (4) Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
26 Cash deployment: payout increased to 35%, no further dilution, external growth New payout ratio, : 35% of consolidated net income (before non-recurring items) Shareholder commitment: scrip dividend discontinued share bought back : 293M shares cancelled: 225M Acquisitions to accelerate group s strategy: on Services through Sascar s 440M acquisition on tires through active search in Asia Pensions: more than 85% of defined benefits plans funded (for USA-Canada-UK plans) 26 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
27 Next events February 10, 2015: 2014 results April 22, 2015: First-quarter 2015 net sales May 22, 2015: Annual general meeting of shareholders July 28, 2015: First-half 2015 results October 22, 2015: Third-quarter 2015 net sales 27 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
28 December 3, 2014 Société Générale Premium Review APPENDICES 28 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
29 Car and Light truck & Truck: Slowdown starting in Q Worldwide markets, quarter by quarter (% change YoY, in number of new tires) +7% +5% +5% +5% +3% +3% +2% +2% +2% Q2 +0% +0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Original equipment Replacement Source: Michelin -4% 29 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
30 Car and Light truck: slowdown starting in Q2 Markets at September 30, 2014 (% change YoY, in number of tires) +5% +5% +4% +3% +6% +5% North America Europe* Asia (excluding India) Original equipment Replacement * Including Russia and Turkey +5% South America +4% -2% +4% +3% Africa India Middle East GLOBAL MARKET Source: Michelin -18% 30 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
31 Truck: continued slowdown in Europe and lower growth in new markets Markets at September 30, 2014 (% change YoY, in number of new tires) +12% +9% + 3% +2% +3% North America Europe* Asia (excluding India) -8% TOTAL MONDE Original equipment Replacement * Including Russia and Turkey Source: Michelin -3% -17% South America +4% -0% Africa India Middle East +1% +3% 31 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
32 Earthmover markets: continued recovery in OE & Infrastructure and slightly stronger inventory drawdowns in mining Earthmover markets (base 100 in 2009, in tonnes) e Mining e Infrastructure and Original equipment (Europe and North America) 32 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
33 Agricultural: contracting OE demand Agricultural tire markets Europe and North America (in number of tires, base 100 in 2009) e 33 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
34 China core strength: Brand MICHELIN capitalizes on a superior equity Consumer Advocacy (%) Purchasing intention (%) Michelin Bridgestone Goodyear Pirelli Hankook Continental Michelin Bridgestone Goodyear Pirelli Hankook Continental MICHELIN a leading brand with a high purchasing intention Period: 2013 H2 BCM report 34 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
35 China core strength : Product Deliver the total performance MI Compet 1 Compet 2 Compet 3 Pinch shock PS PS PS Global performance (average of all segments) RR Wear RR W RR W RR Wear Grip (Dry & Wet) Grip Grip Grip Source: Michelin MICHELIN, an outstanding performance in safety and wear while not compromising in others 2014 Autobild test Michelin No.1 Made-in China & For China Tire Pattern 35 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
36 China core strength: Local Footprint 8 Sales Offices Shenyang 4 Plants Beijing Shenyang Xi an Chengdu Shanghai Guangzhou Hong Kong Taipei Xi an Beijing Wuhu Shanghai Taipei Shenyang (TC & PL) Shanghai (TC) Shanghai (steel cord) Wuhu (TC Warrior) Production (K tons/year)* *JV excluded Chengdu Guangzhou Hong kong 36 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
37 China core strength: Distribution network # Dealers TC PL Durable 2, Advocate 3, Heilongjiang Jilin Transactional 2,800 1,600 Total 7,800 1,800 Sales >=5% 2%< Sales <5% Xinjiang Xizang Gansu Qinghai Beijing Tianjin NMG Hebei Ningxia Shanxi Liaoning Shandong Jiangsu Henan Anhui Shanghai Shaanxi Hubei Zhejiang Sichuan Hunan Jiangxi Fujian Chongqing Guizhou Sales <=2% Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong % = weight of each province in Michelin China net sales Hainan 37 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
38 MICHELIN T&B brand Matching customer expectations (wear life and fuel efficicency) with innovation INFINICOIL TM Wear life Fuel efficiency Mass Xone Multi X Line Tropic ENERGYFLEX TM Fuel efficiency Mass Retreadability X Line X Multi Performance lever Patent clusters Industrial Know-How REGENION TM Wear life Fuel efficiency Mass CARBION TM Wear life Fuel efficiency X Multi X Incity, X Line X Multi 38 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
39 MICHELIN T&B brand The best total performance for customers Europe: 315/70R22,5 Steer Axle Long Haul MICHELIN Xline Energy Z Competitor A Competitor B ROLLING RESISTANCE ROLLING RESISTANCE ROLLING RESISTANCE WET GRIP WEAR LIFE WET GRIP WEAR LIFE WET GRIP WEAR LIFE ENDURANCE ENDURANCE ENDURANCE Source: Michelin estimates Reference: Premium Average 39 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
40 Q3: stabilized price-mix effect in a very competitive environment YoY change (in %) Volumes Price-Mix Currency effect Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
41 Competitiveness Plan : as of end-september, acceleration in manufacturing gains in 2014 confirmed GAIN OBJECTIVES * 200m/ 300m 200m/ 300m 500m/ 600m 1 billion 213 SG&A Materials Manufacturing Transport Total Gain 9 mois Gain gain 9M 2014 gain Total gain gain 9M 2014 gain Total gain gain Gain 9M 2014 Total gain 190 Gain 2012 *Before inflation and including avoided costs 41 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
42 Truck division to contribute 400m to Group 1bn competitiveness plan Gains* achieved 2012 Sept (in million) SG&A Materials Manufacturing Transport Total Group 94 o/w SR2 87 Group 30 o/w SR2 284 Group 76 o/w SR2 Group 200 o/w SR2 *Before inflation and including avoided costs 42 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
43 Positive 0.8% currency effect in September USD 9M 2014 net sales by currency TRY Autres ZAR THB RUB MXN ARS INR JPY AUD GBP BRL CAD CNY EUR % of net sales ARS 1% AUD 2% BRL 4% CAD 3% CNY 5% EUR 34% GBP 3% INR 1% JPY 1% MXN 2% RUB 2% THB 1% TRY 1% USD 35% ZAR 1% Autres 4,0% 1,45 1,40 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 EBIT sensitivity to /$ exchange rate: A one cent change in the average annual /$ exchange rate leads to a variation of million in annual EBIT. /$ exchange rate Jan. 01, 2013 / Nov. 27, /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/2013 Source: Thomson One 01/09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/2014 EUR vs. USD 01/02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
44 Disclaimer "This presentation is not an offer to purchase or a solicitation to recommend the purchase of Michelin shares. To obtain more detailed information on Michelin, please consult the documentation published in France by Autorité des marchés financiers available from the website. This presentation may contain a number of forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions at the time of the publication of this document, they are by nature subject to risks and contingencies liable to translate into a difference between actual data and the forecasts made or induced by these statements." 44 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
45 Contacts Investor Relations Valérie MAGLOIRE Matthieu DEWAVRIN +33 (0) , cours de l île Seguin Boulogne-Billancourt - France investor-relations@fr.michelin.com 45 Société Générale Premium Review December 3, 2014
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