Scottish Independence Poll
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- Shanon Mathews
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Scottish Poll
2 Methodology
3
4 Scottish Poll Table 1 Q1. rmal weightings Q1. If there was a referendum on Scottish taking place tomorrow, how likely do you think you would be to vote on a scale of 0 to 10? Base: All Respondents Page 4 Did t AB C1 C2 DE Glasgow rth Unweighted Weighted (would definitely vote) (would definitely not vote) 78.7% 81.7% 75.9% 71.1% 76.1% 87.0% 87.8% 88.2% 89.3% 91.0% 84.7% 59.7% 89.5% 81.8% 85.4% 81.3% 74.1% 71.8% 77.4% 77.8% 88.0% 72.8% 75.6% 81.1% 79.1% 65.1% 89.0% 83.6% % 5.2% 5.6% 4.3% 6.2% 5.6% 3.1% 4.8% 6.2% 4.1% - 7.2% 4.1% 5.8% 4.8% 4.8% 8.3% 3.4% 4.3% 6.9% 3.9% 5.3% 7.0% 2.7% 4.8% 12.9% 4.5% 6.3% % 3.7% 4.2% 5.9% 5.2% 1.3% 5.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.3% 8.5% 5.4% 1.7% 4.6% 3.7% 4.9% 2.8% 4.5% 3.3% 6.0% 2.0% 7.9% 5.0% 2.9% 2.3% 4.8% 2.6% 4.4% % 2.7% 3.3% 6.4% 2.4% 0.9% 2.3% 2.7% - 1.3% - 3.5% 1.1% 2.6% 1.9% 1.4% 5.1% 4.2% 2.2% 2.7% 0.6% 3.4% 1.7% 4.3% 6.1% 4.3% 1.8% 2.7% % 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.5% * - 0.9% - * - 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% - 0.8% 0.9% 2.4% - 1.7% 2.1% % - 2.1% 1.1% 1.0% % 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% * * 0.8% 1.4% 0.9% 6.8% 5.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 2.0% 2.5% 4.5% 2.6% 2.0% 0.7% 3.3% - 2.9% 3.0% 4.9% 0.8% 1.1% % 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% * * % % 1.0% * 0.9% * - 0.7% 1.5% - 1.3% - 1.6% * * * - * 0.7% % - - * * % 0.7% * * * * * * * * - 1.1% 0.5% % 0.6% - * 0.8% % - 0.7% - - * * - * - * * * * % 3.7% 4.9% 5.3% 4.2% 3.7% 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% % * 3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 4.9% 8.4% 9.3% 2.2% 1.3% 5.1% 9.4% 3.6% 3.5% 4.4% Prepared by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail Page 4
5 Table 2 Q2. rmal weightings Q2. If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should be an Independent country?", how would you vote? Base: Likely to Scottish Poll Page 5 Did t AB C1 C2 DE Glasgow rth Unweighted Weighted Undecided Refused 41.1% 38.9% 43.2% 48.1% 45.4% 32.0% 8.1% 16.1% 13.6% 74.9% 26.3% 44.4% 77.6% 10.3% 41.2% 40.5% 31.6% 53.4% 44.3% 44.9% 42.3% 42.1% 39.5% 43.3% 40.3% 23.7% 100.0% % 51.5% 43.6% 35.9% 43.5% 59.9% 88.6% 72.1% 77.1% 18.1% 58.6% 38.5% 13.1% 80.7% 48.6% 47.1% 56.9% 34.9% 42.9% 44.6% 47.1% 48.5% 56.4% 46.8% 45.5% 55.7% % % 8.8% 12.2% 14.4% 10.2% 7.8% 3.3% 11.8% 9.2% 7.0% 15.1% 15.7% 9.1% 8.2% 9.5% 12.1% 9.7% 10.8% 12.8% 10.0% 9.8% 7.8% 4.1% 8.3% 12.3% 20.6% % 0.8% 1.0% 1.6% 1.0% * % * 0.8% 0.7% * 1.8% 0.9% - 0.6% 0.8% 1.6% - 1.6% 1.9% Prepared by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail Page 5
6 Table 3 Q2. rmal weightings & likelihood to vote Q2. If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should be an Independent country?", how would you vote? Base: Likely to Scottish Poll Page 6 Did t AB C1 C2 DE Glasgow rth Unweighted Weighted Undecided Refused 42.2% 39.7% 44.6% 50.4% 46.4% 32.5% 7.9% 16.0% 13.9% 75.8% 27.7% 47.7% 78.7% 10.5% 41.7% 41.8% 33.1% 54.6% 45.2% 45.2% 42.8% 43.6% 40.4% 44.1% 42.4% 25.3% 100.0% % 51.9% 44.1% 35.7% 44.1% 60.2% 89.1% 72.3% 77.8% 17.8% 59.3% 39.4% 12.9% 81.2% 49.2% 47.3% 57.3% 35.7% 42.9% 45.5% 47.4% 48.6% 55.5% 47.7% 46.5% 57.5% % % 7.6% 10.4% 12.4% 8.6% 6.9% 2.9% 11.7% 8.3% 6.5% 13.0% 11.9% 8.2% 7.6% 8.6% 10.6% 7.7% 9.0% 11.9% 8.8% 9.0% 6.5% 4.1% 6.8% 9.4% 17.2% % 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 0.9% * % * 0.6% 0.6% * 1.9% 0.8% - 0.6% 0.8% 1.3% - 1.4% 1.7% Prepared by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail Page 6
7 Table 4 Q2. rmal weightings & likelihood to vote, with refused removed Q2. If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should be an Independent country?", how would you vote? Base: Likely to Scottish Poll Page 7 Did t AB C1 C2 DE Glasgow rth Unweighted Weighted Undecided 42.6% 40.0% 45.0% 51.2% 46.8% 32.6% 7.9% 16.0% 13.9% 75.8% 27.7% 48.2% 78.9% 10.5% 41.9% 41.9% 33.7% 55.0% 45.2% 45.5% 43.2% 44.2% 40.4% 44.7% 43.1% 25.3% 100.0% % 52.3% 44.5% 36.3% 44.5% 60.4% 89.1% 72.3% 77.8% 17.8% 59.3% 39.8% 13.0% 81.8% 49.4% 47.4% 58.4% 35.9% 42.9% 45.7% 47.8% 49.2% 55.5% 48.4% 47.3% 57.5% % % 7.7% 10.5% 12.6% 8.7% 7.0% 2.9% 11.7% 8.3% 6.5% 13.0% 12.0% 8.2% 7.7% 8.6% 10.7% 7.9% 9.1% 11.9% 8.8% 9.1% 6.6% 4.1% 6.9% 9.6% 17.2% Prepared by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail Page 7
8 Table 5 Q2. rmal weightings & likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused removed Q2. If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question "Should be an Independent country?", how would you vote? Base: Likely to Scottish Poll Page 8 Did t AB C1 C2 DE Glasgow rth Unweighted Weighted % 43.3% 50.3% 58.5% 51.3% 35.1% 8.2% 18.1% 15.1% 81.0% 31.8% 54.8% 85.9% 11.4% 45.9% 46.9% 36.6% 60.5% 51.3% 49.9% 47.5% 47.3% 42.1% 48.1% 47.6% 30.5% 100.0% % 56.7% 49.7% 41.5% 48.7% 64.9% 91.8% 81.9% 84.9% 19.0% 68.2% 45.2% 14.1% 88.6% 54.1% 53.1% 63.4% 39.5% 48.7% 50.1% 52.5% 52.7% 57.9% 51.9% 52.4% 69.5% % Prepared by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail Page 8
9 Scottish Poll Table 6 Q3. rmal weightings Q3. To what extent do you support or oppose having another independence referendum before the UK leaves the European Union? Base: All Respondents Page 9 Did t AB C1 C2 DE Glasgow rth Unweighted Weighted Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don t know 25.2% 23.3% 26.9% 31.4% 26.0% 19.5% 4.6% 10.3% 16.1% 45.8% 28.9% 23.9% 46.3% 8.3% 28.1% 23.4% 21.2% 28.4% 28.9% 25.5% 25.6% 28.7% 26.0% 24.3% 25.3% 11.5% 59.0% 1.7% % 13.9% 16.8% 22.6% 17.0% 8.3% 3.6% 13.1% 6.5% 22.0% 6.9% 18.6% 20.1% 8.3% 15.7% 17.5% 13.3% 14.5% 14.3% 14.2% 18.2% 13.2% 11.0% 19.5% 15.1% 13.0% 26.5% 5.0% * % 8.0% 10.6% 10.8% 10.1% 7.6% 4.2% 6.9% 1.8% 7.8% 5.9% 16.1% 9.9% 7.7% 6.2% 9.9% 9.6% 12.3% 9.0% 13.8% 9.3% 6.0% 6.1% 8.1% 10.7% 10.9% 6.2% 5.5% * % 7.8% 7.7% 7.3% 8.1% 7.8% 1.7% 10.1% 8.6% 8.4% 5.8% 7.6% 7.6% 8.8% 8.1% 10.3% 7.8% 3.8% 8.2% 7.0% 5.6% 7.3% 7.6% 6.8% 9.1% 14.0% 3.7% 8.9% % 44.5% 33.1% 21.8% 35.3% 55.0% 85.9% 57.0% 67.0% 14.7% 52.5% 27.2% 14.4% 64.5% 40.1% 36.4% 46.0% 31.1% 32.4% 35.3% 40.6% 39.9% 46.3% 38.5% 36.2% 45.4% 3.0% 77.5% % 2.4% 4.9% 6.1% 3.6% 1.8% - 2.5% - 1.3% - 6.6% 1.8% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.1% 9.8% 7.2% 4.2% 0.7% 4.8% 3.1% 2.7% 3.6% 5.3% 1.6% 1.5% Prepared by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail Page 9
10 Scottish Poll Table 7 Q4. rmal weightings Q4. The power to hold an independence referendum is currently reserved to minster. If Nicola Sturgeon demands that the power to hold a referendum is devolved to the Scottish government before Britain formally leaves the European Union in early 2019, what do you think Theresa May should do? Base: All Respondents Page 10 Did t AB C1 C2 DE Glasgow rth Unweighted Weighted Refuse to devolve the power to hold a referendum to the Scottish government Agree to devolve the power to hold a referendum to the Scottish government Agree to devolve the power to hold a referendum to the Scottish government, but only after the UK exits the EU in 2019 Don t know Scottish Region % 40.7% 32.1% 26.4% 33.3% 46.7% 75.5% 57.2% 59.2% 14.1% 35.3% 26.0% 14.9% 58.7% 38.4% 35.0% 39.0% 31.7% 34.3% 29.2% 39.0% 40.3% 45.2% 34.6% 33.4% 37.7% 7.4% 67.0% % 30.6% 31.5% 38.1% 33.7% 23.1% 9.6% 17.3% 10.2% 53.1% 20.0% 34.8% 49.5% 14.5% 34.4% 34.2% 26.0% 28.5% 31.1% 33.1% 33.7% 30.6% 29.3% 31.5% 30.8% 22.4% 62.4% 5.9% % 17.5% 19.2% 17.9% 18.7% 18.4% 9.2% 13.0% 20.2% 24.2% 35.7% 17.3% 24.4% 14.3% 19.0% 17.9% 17.4% 19.3% 20.0% 22.5% 19.3% 13.3% 14.9% 19.2% 17.5% 17.7% 22.5% 15.7% % 11.2% 17.3% 17.6% 14.3% 11.9% 5.7% 12.5% 10.5% 8.6% 9.0% 21.9% 11.2% 12.6% 8.2% 12.9% 17.6% 20.5% 14.6% 15.2% 7.9% 15.8% 10.6% 14.7% 18.3% 22.2% 7.6% 11.4% SEG Prepared by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail Page 10
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