RPO-REC Framework: Emerging Challenges and way forward. Background Presentation

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1 RPO-REC Framework: Emerging Challenges and way forward Background Presentation Ashwin Gambhir, Vishal Toro, Vijaypal Singh Prayas (Energy Group), Pune 10 th June, 2013, IHC, New Delhi Prayas Energy Group, Pune

2 Objective of the study Increase our collective understanding of the challenges and issues involved in RPO-REC framework in India. Evaluate RPO compliance and the REC mechanism against its stated objectives and its effectiveness in the Indian context by critically examining the performance over the past two years. To enable a discussion on the evolution and future of the RPO-REC framework. 2

3 Presentation Outline Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO) Policy-legal guiding principles RPO targets and compliance Observations Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) REC price band evolution A critical look back at the past performance Observations RPO and REC Framework Emerging Challenges 3

4 Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) Focusing on six RE rich states (i.e. Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh) which account for over 85% of the installed RE capacity 4

5 Policy-legal guiding principles for RPO (1/2) Guideline Suggested measure Reference RPO percentage SERCs to specify certain percentage of total energy consumption from renewables in the area of distribution licensee Section 86(1) (e) EA 2003, NTP RPO applicability to OA/CPP Impact on retail tariff Solar RPO percentage RE certificates SERCs to specify certain percentage of total energy consumption from renewables in the area of distribution licensee. This suggests RPO framework is also applied to OA and CPPs and not distribution licensee alone Appropriate Commission to fix a minimum percentage for purchase of energy from RE sources taking into account their availability in the region and its impact on retail tariffs. SERCS to reserve a minimum percentage for purchase of solar from the date of notification of the official gazette which will go up to 3% by 2022 Authorities to issue renewable certificates, which are tradable to enable utilities which are falling short to meet RPO Section 86(1) (e) EA 2003, NTP, Rajasthan High Court Judgement 2012 NTP Amendments to Clause 6.4 (1) of NTP on 20th Jan 2011 Clause (ii), NAPCC 5

6 (2/2) Increase in RPO targets Higher RPO than NAPCC RPO compliance verification Penal provisions RPO on end consumer Progressively, the share of electricity from non-conventional sources would need to be increased as prescribed by SERCs RE injection into the national grid has to be set at 5% at the beginning of FY and to be increased at 1% per annum in the subsequent years to reach 15% at the end of FY NTP provision for solar RPO recommended at minimum of 0.25% in 2012 increasing to 3% by SERCs may set higher percentages than this minimum at each point in time. Central and State Governments may set up a verification mechanism to ensure that the renewables based power is actually procured as per the applicable standard (DMRPS or SERC specified). Penalties for non-compliance of directions by Appropriate Commission Mandating solar RPO on certain consumer categories Clause NEP NAPCC Amendments to Clause 6.4 (1) of NTP NAPCC Section NAPCC Section 142 EA 2003, Section NAPCC TN Solar Policy 2012, Directive to TNERC, section 108 6

7 Summary of regulations State Parameter Guj Raj TN Mah Kar AP State RPO regulations in place Y Y Y Y Y Y Minimum RPO specified Y Y Y Y Y Y RPOs also applicable to OA & CPPs Y Y Y Y Y Y Solar specific RPO targets Y Y Y Y Y Y REC allowed as RPO compliance mechanism Y Y Y Y Y Y RPO compliance verification in place Y Y Y Y Y Y RPO non-compliance penal provisions in place Y Y Y Y Y Y Higher than NAPCC RPOs specified N N Y N Y N Utility specific RPO N N N N Y N Long term RPO targets specified N N N Y N Y Gradually increasing RPO trajectory for future Y N N N N N 7

8 Summary of regulations in six states Increase in RPO targets: Only Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh have slightly long term RPOs while Gujarat is only state with increasing RPO. Higher than NAPCC targets: Only Tamil Nadu and Karnataka Retail tariff Impact: Not explicitly considered Other: Karnataka has utility specific RPOs; TNERC has stipulated end consumer SPO (directive under section 108) 8

9 Andhra Arunachal Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh* Delhi Goa & UT* Gujarat* Haryana Himachal Jammu and Jharkhand* Karnataka* Kerala Madhya Maharashtra Manipur* Mizoram* Meghalaya* Nagaland* Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim** Tamil Nadu* Tripura* Uttarakhand* Uttar Pradesh* West Bengal RPO % State wise solar, non-solar RPO for % 10% 9% 8% solar RPO non-solar RPO 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% State 9

10 RPO Compliance 10

11 RPO compliance contd 11

12 RPO (%) RPO compliance Summary, Utilities, % 14% RPO achieved RPO target 12% 10% 8% Combined Compliance: 5.66% against 6.97% 25,494 MU as against 31,071 MUs 6% 4% 2% 0% 12

13 Observations Share of RE increasing in the country; 1.47% ( ), 3.7% ( ); 6.4% ( ). 5% rise in 6 yrs, nearly in line with NAPCC though slightly lagging. Combined RPO compliance in six states for FY is 82%. However wide variation within obligated entities Penal provisions not enforced (waive/carry forward/reduce) Weak M&V implementation; OA/CPP compliance not known Methodological issues (inclusion of wheeled RE?) Challenges of continuous increase in RPO over medium-long term Need for reliable and up to date resource maps Equitable sharing of incremental costs Reliable grid integration of RE and associated costs 13

14 Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) 14

15 Floor and forbearance price in Rs/MWh Evolution of REC Price Band Non Solar Floor Price Non Solar Forbearance Price Solar Floor Price Solar Forbearance Price Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 15

16 No of RECs (1000s) Rs/REC Non Solar REC Trade (IEX), Feb 11 - May , , , , , , , , Buy Bid Sell Bid Volume Traded Equlibrium Price Floor Price Forbearance Price 16

17 Non- Solar RECs Issued, redeemed and closing balance from March 2011-May REC Issued REC Redeemed Closing Balance

18 No of RECs Rs/REC Solar REC Trade (IEX), Feb 11 - May Buy Bid Sell Bid Volume Traded Equlibrium Price Floor Price Forbearance Price 18

19 Solar RECs Issued, redeemed and closing balance, March 2011-May REC Issued REC Redeemed Closing Balance

20 Rs/kWh Sale to Utility vs CPP/OA under non-solar REC 10 9 Energy Price (APPC/mutullay agreed) Mean REC Price Wind fall gains Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP 20

21 MWs REC capacity (Sale to utility/cpp/oa) % - CPP; 25% - OA 25% - APPC Through Average pooled purchase Cost (APPC) route Through Captive use route Through Open Access route At least 1155 MW registered as on , i.e. old projects Wind Biomass Bagasse SHP Solar PV Others Data does not include Tamil Nadu 21

22 Rs/kWh Sale to Utility vs (CPP/OA),CB under solar REC 20 Energy Price (APPC/mutullay agreed) Mean REC Price Solar Price (Energy+Green attribute) discovered through CB Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP Sale to Utility OA/CPP

23 Observations CPP/OA based REC projects lead to wind fall profits. Allowing old projects under the scheme does not lead to additional investments. Mismatch of solar REC prices with market reality; mismatch within solar as well. Resource disparity practically non-existent. Governance Aspects: need for greater transparency and monitoring. 23

24 RPO-REC Framework: Emerging Challenges How to improve compliance of RPO? How to ensure equitable burden sharing of RPOs across states/consumers? Need to avoid wind fall gains to some projects Rethinking Solar RECs How to improve transparency in RPO-REC framework implementation? Framework for off-grid projects under REC? RPO-REC mechanism post grid parity; approaching fast? Sustainability of the entire REC scheme 24

25 THANK YOU ashwin [at] prayaspune [dot] org Prayas Energy Group 25

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