PERANGKAAN PERKHIDMATAN

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1 PERANGKAAN PERKHIDMATAN SERVICES STATISTICS INDEKS PERDAGANGAN EDARAN SUKU TAHUNAN QUARTERLY INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE MALAYSIA (2008 = 100) SUKU KEEMPAT 2013 FOURTH QUARTER 2013 JABATAN PERANGKAAN MALAYSIA DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, 1 MALAYSIA PUTRAJAYA

2 KATA PENGANTAR Penerbitan ini memaparkan Indeks Perdagangan Edaran bagi suku keempat 2013 meliputi subsektor Kenderaan Bermotor, Perdagangan Borong dan Perdagangan Runcit. Indeks ini disusun secara suku tahunan dan menggunakan klasifikasi industri yang terperinci berdasarkan Piawaian Klasifikasi Industri Malaysia (MSIC) 2008 yang selari dengan International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities Revision 4, yang diterbitkan oleh United Nations Statistics Division. Kandungan penerbitan ini dibahagikan kepada tiga seksyen. Seksyen 1 menerangkan ringkasan penemuan utama, manakala jadual terperinci dimuatkan dalam Seksyen 2. Seksyen 3 mengandungi nota teknikal yang menjelaskan aspek sumber data, metodologi dan konsep yang digunakan bagi meningkatkan kefahaman berkenaan data. Jabatan Perangkaan ingin merakamkan setinggi-tinggi penghargaan atas kerjasama semua pihak dalam membekalkan data yang diperlukan. Cadangan dan pandangan ke arah memperbaiki lagi penerbitan ini pada masa hadapan amatlah dihargai. DATUK DR. HJ. ABDUL RAHMAN BIN HASAN Ketua Perangkawan Malaysia Februari 2014 i

3 PREFACE This publication highlights the Index of Distributive Trade for the fourth quarter of 2013 encompassing the Motor Vehicles, Wholesale Trade and Retail Trade sub-sectors. This index is published on a quarterly basis and uses the detailed classification of industries in the Malaysia Standard Industrial Classification (MSIC) 2008 which is in line with the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities Revision 4, published by the United Nations Statistics Division. The contents of the publication are divided into three sections. Section 1 provides a summary of the main findings while detailed tables are included in Section 2. Section 3 contains technical notes which describes data sources, methodology and concepts used to enhance the understanding of data. The Department of Statistics gratefully acknowledges the co-operation of all parties concerned in providing the required data. Comments and suggestions towards improving future reports are greatly appreciated. DATUK DR. HJ. ABDUL RAHMAN BIN HASAN Chief Statistician Malaysia February 2014 ii

4 KANDUNGAN CONTENTS Muka Surat Pages SEKSYEN 1 RINGKASAN PENEMUAN SECTION 1 SUMMARY FINDINGS 3 SEKSYEN 2 JADUAL SECTION 2 TABLES PERDAGANGAN EDARAN DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE 1 INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN, SUKU KEEMPAT 2013 VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE, FOURTH QUARTER A INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN MENGIKUT SUBSEKTOR VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE BY SUB-SECTORS 10 2B PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN MENGIKUT SUBSEKTOR PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE BY SUB-SECTORS 11 2C PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN MENGIKUT SUBSEKTOR PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE BY SUB-SECTORS 12 KENDERAAN BERMOTOR MOTOR VEHICLES 3A INDEKS KUANTITI KENDERAAN BERMOTOR VOLUME INDEX OF MOTOR VEHICLES 13 3B PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI KENDERAAN BERMOTOR PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF MOTOR VEHICLES 14 3C PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI KENDERAAN BERMOTOR PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF MOTOR VEHICLES 15 PERDAGANGAN BORONG WHOLESALE TRADE 4A 4B INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN BORONG VOLUME INDEX OF WHOLESALE TRADE PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN BORONG PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF WHOLESALE TRADE C PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN BORONG PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF WHOLESALE TRADE 18 iii

5 KANDUNGAN CONTENTS Muka Surat Pages PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT RETAIL TRADE 5A INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE 19 5B PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE 21 5C PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE 23 SEKSYEN 3 NOTA TEKNIKAL SECTION 3 TECHNICAL NOTES 27 LAMPIRAN APPENDIX iv

6 SEKSYEN 1 RINGKASAN PENEMUAN SECTION 1 SUMMARY FINDINGS 1

7 INDEKS PERDAGANGAN EDARAN, SUKU KEEMPAT 2013 INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE, FOURTH QUARTER 2013 SOROTAN PENTING HIGHLIGHTS Indeks Kuantiti / Volume Index Subsektor Sub-sector (2008=100) Asal Original % Perubahan Change YoY Bermusim % Perubahan Change QoQ Indeks Perdagangan Edaran Index of Distributive Trade Indeks Perdagangan Borong Index of Wholesale Trade Indeks Perdagangan Runcit Index of Retail Trade Indeks Kenderaan Bermotor Index of Motor Vehicles Indeks kuantiti Perdagangan Edaran m erek odk an peningkatan seban yak 7.5 peratus pada suku keempat 2013 berbanding tempoh yang sama tahun Peningkatan positif tahun ke tahun ini disumbangkan oleh pertumbuhan indeks bagi Perdagangan Runcit (9.9%), Perdagangan Borong (6.8%) dan Kenderaan Bermotor (4.1%). Bagi asas tahun ke tahun, indeks kuantiti Perdagangan Edaran suku ketiga 2013 telah disemak semula kepada 5.4%. The volume index of Distributive Trade recorded an increase of 7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter 2013 as compared to the corresponding period of The year-on-year positive increase was contributed by the growth in the indices of Retail Trade (9.9%), Wholesale Trade (6.8%) and Motor Vehicles (4.1%). On a year-on-year basis, the volume index of Distributive Trade for third quarter 2013 has been revised to 5.4%. Indeks Perdagangan Edaran pelarasan bermusim pada suku tahun semasa meningkat 0.7 peratus berbanding suku ketiga Peningkatan ini dipacu oleh Perdagangan Runcit (2.2%) dan Perdagangan Borong (1.6%). The seasonally adjusted index of Distributive Trade in the current quarter rose by 0.7 per cent as compared to the third quarter The increase was driven by the Retail Trade (2.2%) and Wholesale Trade (1.6%). 3

8 Prestasi Subsektor Perdagangan Borong Indeks kuantiti Perdagangan Borong menokok sebanyak 6.8 peratus pada suku keempat 2013 berbanding suku yang sama tahun Antara kumpulan yang mencatatkan pertumbuhan positif adalah Jualan Borong Berdasarkan Kontrak atau Yuran (15.1%), Lain-lain Pengkhususan Jual Borong (7.8%) dan Jualan Borong Barangan Isi Rumah (7.6%). Indeks pelarasan bermusim bagi subsektor pada suku tahun semasa meningkat sebanyak 1.6 peratus bagi perbandingan suku tahun ke suku tahun. Prestasi Subsektor Perdagangan Runcit Indeks kuantiti Perdagangan Runcit berkembang sebanyak 9.9 peratus secara tahun ke tahun. Ini didorong oleh kenaikan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Komunikasi dan Maklumat (16.5%), Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Barangan Kesenian dan Rekreasi (13.4%) dan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Bukan Pengkhususan (12.4%). Perbandingan suku tahun ke suku tahun, indeks pelarasan bermusim bagi subsektor pada suku tahun semasa mencatatkan peningkatan sebanyak 2.2 peratus. Prestasi Subsektor Kenderaan Bermotor Perbandingan tahun ke tahun, indeks kuantiti Kenderaan Bermotor termasuk Alat Ganti dan Aksesori meningkat sebanyak 4.1 peratus. Penyumbang utama bagi peningkatan tersebut adalah Jualan, Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Motosikal dan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Berkaitan (7.5%), Jualan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Kenderaan Bermotor (6.2%) dan Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Kenderaan Bermotor (4.6%). Performance of Wholesale Trade Sub-sector The volume index of Wholesale Trade grew by 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter 2013 as against the same quarter in Among the groups which recorded positive growth were Wholesale on a Fee or Contract Basis (15.1%), Other Specialised Wholesale (7.8%) and Wholesale of Household Goods (7.6%). The seasonally adjusted index of the sub-sector in the current quarter increased by 1.6 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Performance of Retail Trade Sub-sector The volume index of Retail Trade expanded by 9.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was led by the increases in the Retail Sale of Information and Communications Equipment in Specialised Stores (16.5%), Retail Sale of Cultural and Recreation Goods in Specialised Stores (13.4%) and Retail Sale in Non-specialised Stores (12.4%). Quarter-on-quarter, the seasonally adjusted index of the sub-sector in the current quarter registered an increase of 2.2 per cent. Performance of Motor Vehicles Sub-sector On a year-on-year basis, the volume index of Motor Vehicles which includes Parts and Accessories increased by 4.1 per cent. The increase was mainly attributed by the Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motorcycles and Related Parts and Accessories (7.5%), Sale of Motor Vehicles Parts and Accessories (6.2%) and Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles (4.6%). Indeks pelarasan bermusim bagi subsektor menyusut sebanyak 4.8 peratus pada suku tahun semasa berbanding suku tahun sebelumnya. The seasonally adjusted index of the sub-sector decreased by 4.8 per cent in the current quarter as compared with the previous quarter. 4

9 INDEKS / INDEX INDEKS / INDEX INDEKS / INDEX INDEKS / INDEX Graf 1 Graph 1 : Indeks Kuantiti Perdagangan Edaran : Volume Index of Distributive Trade Graf 2 Graph 2 : Indeks Kuantiti Kenderaan Bermotor : Volume Index of Motor Vehicles Bermusim/ Bermusim/ 60.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q SUKU TAHUN / QUARTER SUKU TAHUN / QUARTER Graf 3 Graph 3 : Indeks Kuantiti Perdagangan Borong* : Volume Index of Wholesale Trade* Graf 4 Graph 4 : Indeks Kuantiti Perdagangan Runcit : Volume Index of Retail Trade Bermusim/ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q SUKU TAHUN / QUARTER SUKU TAHUN / QUARTER *Indeks pelarasan bermusim adalah sama dengan indeks asal kerana tiada corak bermusim dikesan pada siri data adjusted index is the same as original index because no seasonal pattern is detected in the data series 5

10 SEKSYEN 2 JADUAL SECTION 2 TABLES

11 9 JADUAL 1 : INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN, SUKU KEEMPAT 2013 TABLE 1 : VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE, FOURTH QUARTER 2013 (2008=100) Indeks Kuantiti / Volume Index Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Kod / Code Subsektor Wajaran / Weight Asal p / Original p % Perubahan / Change Bermusim p / % Perubahan / Change QoQ YoY p QoQ Sub-sector INDEKS PERDAGANGAN EDARAN INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE 45 Indeks Kenderaan Bermotor Index of Motor Vehicles 451 * Jualan Kenderaan Bermotor Sale of Motor Vehicles 452 * Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Kenderaan Bermotor Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles 453 * Jualan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Kenderaan Bermotor 454 Jualan, Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Motosikal dan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Berkaitan Sale of Motor Vehicles Parts and Accessories * Indeks Perdagangan Borong Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motorcycles and Related Parts and Accessories Index of Wholesale Trade 461 * Jualan Borong Berdasarkan Kontrak atau Yuran Wholesale on a Fee or Contract Basis 462 * Jualan Borong Bahan Mentah Pertanian dan Haiwan Hidup Wholesale of Agricultural Raw Materials and Live Animals 463 * Jualan Borong Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau Wholesale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco 464 * Jualan Borong Barangan Isi Rumah Wholesale of Household Goods 465 * Jualan Borong Jentera, Peralatan dan Bekalan Wholesale of Machinery, Equipment and Supplies 466 * Lain-lain Pengkhususan Jual Borong Other Specialised Wholesale 469 * Perdagangan Borong Tanpa Pengkhususan Non - specialised Wholesale Trade 47 Indeks Perdagangan Runcit Index of Retail Trade 471 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Bukan Pengkhususan Retail Sale in Non-specialised Stores 472 Jualan Runcit Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau di Kedai Pengkhususan Retail Sale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco in Specialised Stores 473 * Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Bahan Api Kenderaan Retail Sale of Automotive Fuel in Specialised Stores 474 * Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Komunikasi dan Maklumat Retail Sale of Information and Communications Equipment in Specialised Stores 475 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Lain Isi Rumah Retail Sale of Other Household Equipment in Specialised Stores 476 * Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Barangan Kesenian dan Rekreasi Retail Sale of Cultural and Recreation Goods in Specialised Stores 477 * Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Barang Lain Retail Sale of Other Goods in Specialised Stores 478 Jualan Runcit di Gerai dan Pasar Retail Sale via Stalls and Markets 479 * Jualan Runcit Bukan di Kedai, Gerai atau Pasar Retail Trade Not in Stores, Stalls or Markets p Data awalan / Preliminary data * Indeks pelarasan bermusim adalah sama dengan indeks asal kerana tiada corak bermusim dikesan pada siri data adjusted index is the same as original index because no seasonal pattern is detected in the data series

12 10 JADUAL 2A : INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN MENGIKUT SUBSEKTOR TABLE 2A: VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE BY SUB-SECTORS (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Indeks Perdagangan Edaran Indeks Kenderaan Bermotor Indeks Perdagangan Borong* Indeks Perdagangan Runcit Subsektor Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Index of Distributive Trade Index of Motor Vehicles Index of Wholesale Trade Index of Retail Trade r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data * Indeks pelarasan bermusim adalah sama dengan indeks asal kerana tiada corak bermusim dikesan pada siri data adjusted index is the same as original index because no seasonal pattern is detected in the data series

13 11 JADUAL 2B : PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN MENGIKUT SUBSEKTOR TABLE 2B : PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE BY SUB-SECTORS (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Indeks Perdagangan Edaran Indeks Kenderaan Bermotor Indeks Perdagangan Borong Indeks Perdagangan Runcit Subsektor Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Index of Distributive Trade Index of Motor Vehicles Index of Wholesale Trade Index of Retail Trade r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

14 12 JADUAL 2C : PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN EDARAN MENGIKUT SUBSEKTOR TABLE 2C : PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE BY SUB-SECTORS (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Indeks Perdagangan Edaran Indeks Kenderaan Bermotor Indeks Perdagangan Borong Indeks Perdagangan Runcit Subsektor Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Index of Distributive Trade Index of Motor Vehicles Index of Wholesale Trade Index of Retail Trade r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

15 13 Subsektor Jualan Kenderaan Bermotor 451 * JADUAL 3A : INDEKS KUANTITI KENDERAAN BERMOTOR TABLE 3A : VOLUME INDEX OF MOTOR VEHICLES (2008=100) Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Kenderaan Bermotor 452 * Jualan Komponen dan Aksesori Kenderaan Bermotor 453 * Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan, Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Motosikal dan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Berkaitan 454 Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Sales of Motor Vehicles Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles Sale of Motor Vehicles Parts and Accessories Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motorcycles and Related Parts and Accessories r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data * Indeks pelarasan bermusim adalah sama dengan indeks asal kerana tiada corak bermusim dikesan pada siri data adjusted index is the same as original index because no seasonal pattern is detected in the data series

16 14 JADUAL 3B : PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI KENDERAAN BERMOTOR TABLE 3B : PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF MOTOR VEHICLES (2008=100) Subsektor Jualan Kenderaan Bermotor Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Kenderaan Bermotor Jualan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Kenderaan Bermotor Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan, Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Motosikal dan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Berkaitan Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Sales of Motor Vehicles Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available Sale of Motor Vehicles Parts and Accessories Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motorcycles and Related Parts and Accessories p Data awalan / Preliminary data

17 15 Subsektor JADUAL 3C : PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI KENDERAAN BERMOTOR TABLE 3C : PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF MOTOR VEHICLES Jualan Kenderaan Bermotor (2008=100) Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Kenderaan Bermotor Jualan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Kenderaan Bermotor Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan, Penyelenggaraan dan Pembaikan Motosikal dan Komponen (Termasuk Alat Ganti) dan Aksesori Berkaitan Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Sales of Motor Vehicles Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available Sale of Motor Vehicles Parts and Accessories Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motorcycles and Related Parts and Accessories p Data awalan / Preliminary data

18 16 Subsektor Jualan Borong Berdasarkan Kontrak atau Yuran Asal / Original Jualan Borong Bahan Mentah Pertanian dan Haiwan Hidup JADUAL 4A : INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN BORONG TABLE 4A : VOLUME INDEX OF WHOLESALE TRADE (2008=100) Jualan Borong Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau 7.5 Jualan Borong Barangan Isi Rumah 461* 462* 463* 464* Asal / Original Wajaran / Weight Asal / Original Asal / Original 7.8 Jualan Borong Jentera, Peralatan dan Bekalan Asal / Original 465* 5.9 Lain-lain Pengkhususan Jual Borong Asal / Original Asal / Original Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Perdagangan Borong Tanpa Pengkhususan 466* 469* Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Wholesale on a Fee or Contract Basis Wholesale of Agricultural Raw Materials and Livestock Wholesale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Wholesale of Household Goods Wholesale of Machinery, Equipment and Supplies Other Specialised Wholesale Non - specialised Wholesale Trade r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data * Indeks pelarasan bermusim adalah sama dengan indeks asal kerana tiada corak bermusim dikesan pada siri data adjusted index is the same as original index because no seasonal pattern is detected in the series data

19 17 JADUAL 4B : PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN BORONG TABLE 4B : PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF WHOLESALE TRADE (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan Borong Berdasarkan Kontrak atau Yuran Jualan Borong Bahan Mentah Pertanian dan Haiwan Hidup Jualan Borong Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau Jualan Borong Barangan Isi Rumah Jualan Borong Jentera, Peralatan dan Bekalan Lain-lain Pengkhususan Jual Borong Perdagangan Borong Tanpa Pengkhususan Subsektor Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Wholesale on a Fee or Contract Basis Wholesale of Agricultural Raw Materials and Livestock Wholesale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Wholesale of Household Goods Wholesale of Machinery, Equipment and Supplies Other Specialised Wholesale Non - specialised Wholesale Trade r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

20 18 Subsektor Jualan Borong Berdasarkan Kontrak atau Yuran Asal / Original JADUAL 4C : PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN BORONG TABLE 4C : PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF WHOLESALE TRADE (2008=100) Jualan Borong Bahan Mentah Pertanian dan Haiwan Hidup Asal / Original Jualan Borong Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau Asal / Original Jualan Borong Barangan Isi Rumah Asal / Original Jualan Borong Jentera, Peralatan dan Bekalan Asal / Original Lain-lain Pengkhususan Jual Borong Asal / Original Asal / Original Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Perdagangan Borong Tanpa Pengkhususan Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Wholesale on a Fee or Contract Basis Wholesale of Agricultural Raw Materials and Livestock Wholesale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Wholesale of Household Goods Wholesale of Machinery, Equipment and Supplies Other Specialised Wholesale Non - specialised Wholesale Trade r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

21 19 Subsektor Jualan Runcit di Kedai Bukan Pengkhususan JADUAL 5A : INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT TABLE 5A : VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE (2008=100) Jualan Runcit Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau di Kedai Pengkhususan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Bahan Api Kenderaan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Komunikasi dan Maklumat 473* 474* Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Lain Isi Rumah 475 Bermusim / Bermusim / Bermusim / Bermusim / Bermusim / Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Sub-sector Q Q3 r Q4 p Retail Sale in Non-specialised Stores Retail Sale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco in Specialised Stores r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data * Indeks pelarasan bermusim adalah sama dengan indeks asal kerana tiada corak bermusim dikesan pada data siri adjusted index is the same as original index because no seasonal pattern is detected for the series Retail Sale of Automotive Fuel in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Information and Communication Equipment in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Other Household Equipment in Specialised Stores

22 20 JADUAL 5A (samb.): INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT TABLE 5A (cont'd): VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus Yang Menjual Barangan Kesenian dan Rekreasi Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus Yang Menjual Barang Lain Jualan Runcit di Gerai dan Pasar Jualan Runcit Bukan di Kedai, Gerai atau Pasar Subsektor 476* 477* * Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Retail Sale of Cultural and Recreation Goods in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Other Goods in Specialised Stores Retail Sale Via Stalls and Markets Retail Trade Not in Stores, Stalls or Markets r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data * Indeks pelarasan bermusim adalah sama dengan indeks asal kerana tiada corak bermusim dikesan pada siri data adjusted index is the same as original index because no seasonal pattern is detected in the data series

23 21 JADUAL 5B : PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT TABLE 5B : PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Bukan Pengkhususan Jualan Runcit Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau di Kedai Pengkhususan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Bahan Api Kenderaan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Komunikasi dan Maklumat Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Lain Isi Rumah Subsektor Bermusim / Bermusim / Bermusim / Bermusim / Bermusim / Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Retail Sale in Non-specialised Stores Retail Sale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Automotive Fuel in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Information and Communication Equipment in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Other Household Equipment in Specialised Stores r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

24 22 JADUAL 5B (samb.) : PERATUS PERUBAHAN TAHUN KE TAHUN INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT TABLE 5B (cont'd) : PERCENTAGE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus Yang Menjual Barangan Kesenian dan Rekreasi Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus Yang Menjual Barang Lain Jualan Runcit di Gerai dan Pasar Jualan Runcit Bukan di Kedai, Gerai atau Pasar Subsektor Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Retail Sale of Cultural and Recreation Goods in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Other Goods in Specialised Stores Retail Sale via Stalls and Markets Retail Trade Not in Stores, Stalls or Markets r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

25 23 JADUAL 5C : PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT TABLE 5C : PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Bukan Pengkhususan Jualan Runcit Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau di Kedai Pengkhususan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Bahan Api Kenderaan Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Komunikasi dan Maklumat Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus yang Menjual Peralatan Lain Isi Rumah Subsektor Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Retail Sale in Non-specialised Stores Retail Sale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Automotive Fuel in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Information and Communication Equipment in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Other Household Equipment in Specialised Stores r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

26 24 JADUAL 5C (samb.) : PERATUS PERUBAHAN SUKU KE SUKU INDEKS KUANTITI PERDAGANGAN RUNCIT TABLE 5C (cont'd) : PERCENTAGE CHANGE QUARTER-ON-QUARTER VOLUME INDEX OF RETAIL TRADE (2008=100) Suku Keempat 2013 Fourth Quarter 2013 Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus Yang Menjual Barangan Kesenian dan Rekreasi Jualan Runcit di Kedai Khusus Yang Menjual Barang Lain Jualan Runcit di Gerai dan Pasar Jualan Runcit Bukan di Kedai, Gerai atau Pasar Subsektor Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Asal / Original Wajaran / Weight Tempoh / Period 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 r Q4 p Sub-sector Retail Sale of Cultural and Recreation Goods in Specialised Stores Retail Sale of Other Goods in Specialised Stores Retail Sale via Stalls and Markets Retail Trade Not in Stores, Stalls or Markets r Kemaskini dibuat berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh/ Revisions made based on the latest data available p Data awalan / Preliminary data

27 SEKSYEN 3 NOTA TEKNIKAL SECTION 3 TECHNICAL NOTES

28 NOTA TEKNIKAL Pengenalan Indeks Perdagangan Edaran mula dibangunkan secara berperingkat pada tahun 2008 bermula dengan Perdagangan Runcit dan Kenderaan Bermotor. Pada tahun 2009, indeks Perdagangan Borong telah mula dibangunkan dan seterusnya komposit Indeks Perdagangan Edaran telah disusun mulai suku ketiga Indeks Perdagangan Edaran digunakan untuk menilai prestasi semasa aktiviti jualan dalam subsektor Perdagangan Borong, Perdagangan Runcit dan Kenderaan Bermotor. TECHNICAL NOTES Introduction The index of Distributive Trade was first developed in 2008 in stages with the Retail Trade and Motor Vehicles. In 2009, the index of Wholesale Trade was constructed and subsequently the composite Index of Distributive Trade was compiled beginning third quarter The index of Distributive Trade is used to assess the current performance of sales activity in the Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade and Motor Vehicles sub-sectors of the economy. Objektif Objektif Indeks Perdagangan Edaran adalah : a. Untuk mengukur perubahan Borong, Runcit dan Kenderaan Bermotor secara suku tahunan dan tahunan; b. Untuk memberikan maklumat yang relevan dan terkini terhadap pencapaian aktiviti perdagangan edaran yang digunakan dalam penyusunan suku tahunan akaun negara; c. Untuk memberikan penunjuk segera terhadap perubahan corak perbelanjaan pengguna. Sumber Data Indeks Perdagangan Edaran dibentuk berdasarkan data daripada Penyiasatan Bulanan Perdagangan Edaran. Pertubuhan yang memberi sumbangan yang signifikan terhadap nilai jualan setiap kumpulan dalam subsektor Perdagangan Borong, Perdagangan Runcit dan Kenderaan Bermotor telah dipilih dalam penyusunan indeks. Objectives The objectives of the Index of Distributive Trade are : a. To measure quarterly and annual movements of Wholesale, Retail and Motor Vehicles; b. To provide relevant and timely information on the performances of distributive trade activities to be used in the compilation of quarterly national accounts; c. To produce a quick indication of the changes in the trend of consumer spending. Data Sources The Index of Distributive Trade is compiled from the Monthly Survey of Distributive Trade. The establishments which contributed significantly to the sales value in each group of Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade and Motor Vehicles sub-sectors are selected in the index compilation. Skop dan Liputan Indeks Perdagangan Edaran merangkumi indeks Perdagangan Borong, Perdagangan Runcit dan Kenderaan Bermotor. Scope and Coverage The index of Distributive Trade encompasses the index of Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade and Motor Vehicles. Indeks Perdagangan Borong meliputi tujuh kumpulan seperti di bawah: The Wholesale Trade index covered seven groups as below: a. Jualan borong berdasarkan kontrak atau yuran b. Jualan borong bahan mentah pertanian, haiwan hidup c. Jualan borong makanan, minuman dan tembakau d. Jual borong barangan isi rumah e. Jualan borong jentera, peralatan dan bekalan f. Lain-lain pengkhususan jual borong g. Perdagangan borong tanpa pengkhususan 27 a. Wholesale on a fee or contract basis b. Wholesale of agricultural raw materials and lives animals c. Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco d. Wholesale of household goods e. Wholesale of machinery, equipment and supplies f. Other specialised wholesale g. Non - specialised wholesale trade

29 Indeks Perdagangan Runcit meliputi sembilan kumpulan seperti di bawah: a. Jualan di kedai bukan pengkhususan b. Jualan runcit makanan, minuman dan tembakau di kedai pengkhususan c. Jualan runcit di kedai khusus yang menjual bahan api kenderaan d. Jualan runcit di kedai khusus yang menjual peralatan komunikasi dan maklumat e. Jualan runcit di kedai khusus yang menjual peralatan lain isi rumah f. Jualan runcit di kedai khusus yang menjual barangan kesenian dan rekreasi g. Jualan runcit di kedai khusus yang menjual barang lain h. Jualan runcit di gerai dan pasar i. Jualan runcit bukan di kedai, gerai atau pasar Indeks Kenderaan Bermotor meliputi empat kumpulan seperti di bawah: a. Jualan kenderaan bermotor b. Penyelenggaraan dan pembaikan kenderaan Bermotor c. Jualan Komponen dan aksesori kenderaan bermotor d. Jualan penyelenggaraan dan pembaikan motosikal dan komponen dan aksesori berkaitan Klasifikasi subsektor pertubuhan dibuat berdasarkan aktiviti utama dan Klasifikasi Standard Perindustrian Malaysia (MSIC) MSIC 2008 diguna pakai adalah selaras dengan Klasifikasi Antarabangsa bagi Semua Aktiviti Ekonomi (ISIC), Semakan ke-4, United Nations Statistics Division, dengan pengubahsuaian untuk keperluan tempatan. Prosedur Pengiraan Indeks Perdagangan Edaran dihasilkan dengan menjumlahkan nilai jualan bagi setiap pertubuhan yang berada dalam satu subsektor yang sama. Formula Laspeyres digunakan dalam menyusun indeks ini. The index of Retail Trade covered the nine groups as below: a. Retail sale in non-specialised stores b. Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores c. Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores d. Retail sale of information and communications equipment in specialised stores e. Retail sale of other household equipment in specialised stores f. Retail sale of cultural and recreation goods in specialised stores g. Retail sale of other goods in specialised stores h. Retail sale via stalls and markets i. Retail trade not in stores, stalls or markets The index of Motor Vehicles covered the four groups as below: a. Sale of motor vehicles b. Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles c. Sale of motor vehicles parts and accessories d. Sale, maintenance and repair of motorcycles and related parts and accessories The classification of the sub-sector of an establishment is based on the principal activity and is in accordance with the Malaysia Standard Industrial Classification (MSIC) The MSIC 2008 conforms to the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC), Revision 4, United Nations Statistics Division, with modifications to suit local conditions. Computational Procedures The Index of Distributive Trade is generated by aggregating the sales value of establishments belonging to the same sub-sector. The Laspeyres formula is used to compile these indices. 28

30 Oleh itu, bagi kumpulan subsektor i daripada subsektor utama j: Thus, for the sub-sector group i of major sub-sector j: Di mana: merujuk kepada pengiraan relatif jualan bagi kumpulan subsektor i terhadap subsektor utama j pada masa t Where : refers to the computed sales relative for industry group i of major sub-sector j at time t adalah agregat jualan untuk pertubuhan bagi kumpulan subsektor i terhadap subsektor utama j pada masa t (tempoh semasa) adalah agregat jualan untuk pertubuhan bagi kumpulan subsektor i terhadap subsektor utama j pada masa 0 (tahun asas=2008) (tempoh semasa) Indeks untuk subsektor utama j adalah jumlah wajaran bagi subsektor indeks menggunakan syer relatif terhadap jumlah nilai ditambah subsektor sebagai wajaran, atau is the aggregated sales of establishments for sub-sector group i of major sub-sector j at time t (current period) is the aggregated sales of establishments for sub-sector group i of major industry j at time 0 (base period=2008) (current period) The index for the major sub-sector j is the sum of the weighted sub-sector indices using the relative shares to the total value added of the sub-sector as the weights, or Di mana : merujuk kepada indeks bagi subsektor utama j pada masa t Where : refers to the index for major sub-sector j at time t adalah syer relatif bagi nilai ditambah kumpulan subsektor i terhadap jumlah nilai ditambah terhadap subsektor utama j adalah pengiraan indeks bagi kumpulan subsektor i pada masa t Indeks kuantiti dikira bagi setiap subsektor Perdagangan Borong, Perdagangan Runcit dan Kenderaan Bermotor. Indeks Kuantiti mengukur perubahan nilai jualan pada harga malar berbanding tahun asas. Indeks kuantiti diperoleh dengan mendeflasi nilai jualan dengan deflator harga yang dibentuk daripada komponen yang berkaitan dalam Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) dan Indeks Harga Pengeluar (IHPR). is the relative share of value added sub-sector group i in the total value added of major sub-sector j is the computed index for sub-sector group i at time t The volume index is computed separately for each type of sub-sector for Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade and Motor Vehicles. The volume index measures the changes in sales at constant price with reference to the base period. The volume index is obtained by deflating the sales value with the price deflator which is constructed from the relevant components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). 29

31 Wajaran Wajaran subsektor adalah berpandukan kepada nisbah nilai ditambah kepada keseluruhan sektor Perdagangan Edaran berdasarkan Banci Perdagangan Edaran 2009 (tahun rujukan 2008). Wajaran adalah dikira berdasarkan formula berikut: Weights The weights of sub-sector were based on the concentration ratios to the total value added of the entire Distributive Trade sectors based on the Census of Distributive Trade 2009 (reference year 2008). Such weights are computed using the following formula: Di mana : ialah syer relatif nilai ditambah bagi kumpulan subsektor i terhadap jumlah nilai ditambah dalam sektor utama j Where : is the relative share of sub-sector group i in the total value added in the major sub-sector j ialah jumlah nilai ditambah bagi kumpulan subsektor i terhadap subsektor utama j (tempoh semasa) is the total value added of sub-sector group i of major sub-sector j (current period) ialah jumlah nilai ditambah bagi subsektor utama j is the total value added of major sub-sector j Pendeflasi Harga Dalam Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) dan Indeks Harga Pengeluar (IHPR), penyusunan barang-barang dan perkhidmatan bagi setiap subsektor yang diliputi telah diambil dan perubahan harga dalam bakul itu telah diukur. Semua item yang telah disusun akan digunakan dalam pengiraan deflasi subsektor. Deflasi harga yang digunakan adalah kombinasi wajaran daripada komponen yang berkaitan dalam Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) dan Indeks Harga Pengeluar (IHPR) untuk pelbagai kategori barang-barang Perdagangan Edaran. Price Deflator In the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), a basket of goods and services for each of the sub-sector being covered is taken and the price changes for that basket are measured. All items are now used in the calculation of sub-sector deflators. Price deflators used are a weighted combination of relevant components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for various categories of Distributive Trade goods. Perubahan Indeks Indeks Perdagangan Edaran mengukur perubahan jualan dari tempoh rujukan yang ditetapkan iaitu 2008 yang bersamaan dengan 100. Misalnya, kenaikan 20.0 peratus, sebagai contoh daripada purata harga 2008 ditunjukkan sebagai Index Changes The index of Distributive Trade measure changes in sales of the designated period 2008 called as base year that equals to 100. An increase of 20.0 per cent, for example, from the average of 2008 is shown as 120. Perubahan Mata Indeks Indeks Perdagangan Edaran Tolak Indeks Sebelumnya Bersamaan dengan 6.0 Index Point Changes Index of Distributive Trade Less Previous Index Equal to

32 Perubahan Peratusan Percentage Change Perbezaan indeks dibahagikan dengan indeks sebelumnya, didarabkan dengan seratus akan menunjukkan peratus perubahan. The difference in the index divided by the previous index, multiplied by one hundred will indicate the percentage change. Sebagai contoh: For example: ( ) x 100 = 5.0% ( ) x 100 = 5.0% Bermusim Seasonal Adjustment Data siri masa adalah amat berguna untuk ahli ekonomi, pembuat dasar & polisi dan penganalisis siri masa untuk mengenal pasti ciri-ciri penting siri ekonomi seperti arah, turning point dan konsistensi antara penunjuk ekonomi yang lain. Kadang-kadang ciri ini sukar untuk diperhatikan kerana pergerakan bermusim. Oleh itu, sekiranya kesan bermusim boleh disingkirkan, perilaku data siri ini dapat dilihat dengan lebih baik. Anggaran dan penyingkiran kesan bermusim dipanggil pelarasan bermusim. Time-series data are very useful for economists, policy & decision makers and time-series analysts to identify the important features of economic series such as direction, turning point and consistency between other economic indicators. Sometimes this feature is difficult to observe because of seasonal movements. Thus, if the seasonal effect can be removed, the behaviour of the series would be better viewed. The estimation and removal of the seasonal effects is called seasonal adjustment. bermusim adalah satu proses untuk mengenal pasti dan menyingkirkan bentuk pola bermusim yang biasa berlaku dalam tempoh satu tahun, yang mungkin juga merangkumi pengaruh dari kesan cuti yang bergerak dan hari bekerja/ berdagang bagi suatu tempoh. Objektif utama proses ini adalah untuk m e n y e r l a h k a n d a s a r a r a h a l i r a n d a n pergerakan-pergerakan jangka pendek dalam siri ini. Seasonal adjustment is a process to identify and to remove the regular within-a-year seasonal pattern, which may also include the influences of moving holidays and working/trading days effect in each period. The ultimate objective of the process is to highlight the underlying trends and short-term movements in the series. Di Malaysia, kebanyakan data siri masa terjejas oleh kesan bermusim. Oleh itu, untuk menghapuskan kesan bermusim dan juga melaras musim data siri masa ekonomi Malaysia, pakej pelarasan bermusim standard, X-12 ARIMA telah digunakan oleh Jabatan Perangkaan, Malaysia. In Malaysia, most of the time series data are affected by seasonal effects. Hence, to eliminate the seasonal effect as well as to seasonally adjust the Malaysian economic time series data, a standard seasonal adjustment package, X-12 ARIMA was used by Department of Statistics, Malaysia. Data siri masa ekonomi Malaysia kerap dipengaruhi oleh perayaan utama seperti Aidil Fitri bagi umat Islam, Tahun Baru Cina untuk kaum Cina dan Deepavali untuk kaum India. Tarikh perayaan-perayaan ini tetap mengikut tahun lunar tetapi berbeza-beza mengikut kalendar Gregorian. Oleh itu, untuk menganggar dan menyingkirkan kesan cuti yang bergerak dari data siri masa, satu prosedur telah dibangunkan iaitu Seasonal Adjustment For Malaysia (SEAM). Malaysian economic time series data are often affected by major festivals such as Eid-ul Fitr of the Muslims, Chinese New Year of the Chinese and Deepavali of the Indians. These festivals dates are fixed according to the lunar year but vary according to the Gregorian calendar. Therefore, to estimate and remove moving holiday effect from time-series data, a procedure was developed, namely Seasonal Adjustment for Malaysia (SEAM). 31

33 Konsep dan Definisi Konsep dan definisi Perdagangan Edaran yang diguna pakai dalam penerbitan ini berasaskan saranan di dalam Manual International Recommendations for Distributive Trade Statistics (IRDTS) 2008 yang diterbitkan oleh United Nations Statistics Division. Pertubuhan ditakrifkan sebagai satu unit ekonomi yang bergiat di bawah satu hak milik atau penguasaan tunggal, iaitu di bawah satu entiti yang sah. Ia menjalankan satu jenis aktiviti ekonomi utama di satu tempat/lokasi fizikal. Concepts and Definitions The concepts and definitions of Distributive Trade adopted in this publication is based on the Manual of International Recommendations for Distributive Trade Statistics (IRDTS) 2008 published by the United Nations Statistics Division. An establishment is defined as an economic unit that engaged in one activity, under a single legal entity and operating in a single physical location. Perdagangan Borong ditakrifkan sebagai penjualan semula (tanpa pengubahsuaian) barangan baru dan barangan yang telah digunakan kepada peruncit, pengguna perindustrian, perdagangan, institusi atau profesional; atau kepada pemborong lain; atau bertindak sebagai agen atau broker dalam pembelian barang dagangan untuk, atau menjual dagangan kepada orang atau syarikat berkenaan. Wholesale Trade refers to the resale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods to retailers; to industrial, commercial, institutional or professional users; or to other wholesalers; or involves acting as an agent or broker in buying merchandise for, or selling merchandise to, such persons or companies. Perdagangan Runcit ditakrifkan sebagai penjualan semula (tanpa pengubahsuaian) barang baru dan terpakai kepada orang awam untuk kegunaan persendirian atau isi rumah. Kenderaan Bermotor meliputi jualan secara borong dan runcit kenderaan bermotor dan motorsikal, sama ada baru atau terpakai, jualan alat-alat ganti dan aksesori kenderaan, penyelenggaraan dan pembaikan kenderaan bermotor dan motorsikal termasuk mencuci, mengilap dan menunda kenderaan serta kegiatan agen berkomisen yang terlibat dalam jualan. Retail Trade refers to the resale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods to the general public for personal or household consumption or utilisation. Motor Vehicles refer to activity covers wholesale and retail sale of motor vehicles and motorcycles, either new or used, sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles including washing, polishing and towing as well as commission agents. Pindaan Pindaan akan dibuat ke atas data indeks suku tahun sebelum yang telah diterbitkan berdasarkan data terkini yang diperoleh. Revisions Revisions will be made to the published figures of previous quarter based on the latest data available. Pembundaran Jumlah bagi komponen-komponen mungkin berbeza daripada jumlah besar di jadual-jadual penerbitan ini oleh kerana pembundaran angka. Rounding The sum of components may not add up to the total in the tables presented in this publication due to rounding. 32

34 LAMPIRAN APPENDIX